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5 Most Predictable Currency Pairs

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 24, 2010 9:30am Jun 24, 2010 9:30am
Hi

http://www.forexcrunch.com/5-most-pr...urrency-pairs/

Are there really predictable currency pairs like the above link?
What is your comment?
Why not? Why yes?

Thanks.
S
  • #2
  • Jun 25, 2010 9:07am Jun 25, 2010 9:07am
I wouldn't include NZD/USD in that list because if we look at the weekly it's nasty. What we want is good trending with predictable pullbacks to support and resistance levels.

I would put GBP/CHF in the nasty list as well.

Just my opinion. This is quite subjective. In other words, each pair has its own character and I believe it's possible for a person to get good at understanding the behaviour of a pair.

I tend to be careful with pairs which have hurt me in the past. Believe me, it's not easy to forgive and forget.
Gone to a better place
  • #3
  • Jun 25, 2010 10:20pm Jun 25, 2010 10:20pm
I remember running across that article, but I was searching on pairs that trend the most.

Are you looking for a predictable pair to trade? Or do you have a system already that you are trying to "fit" into a "predictable" pair?

Just throwing ideas out, but if you're looking for pairs that trends the most, my experience has been to find the timeframe you want to trade, and then start looking at every pair.

If there is something there to see, you will see it right away...
  • #4
  • Jun 26, 2010 7:46am Jun 26, 2010 7:46am
Quoting TheGrind
I remember running across that article, but I was searching on pairs that trend the most.

Are you looking for a predictable pair to trade? Or do you have a system already that you are trying to "fit" into a "predictable" pair?

Just throwing ideas out, but if you're looking for pairs that trends the most, my experience has been to find the timeframe you want to trade, and then start looking at every pair.

If there is something there to see, you will see it right away...
Thanks TheGrind.

I am in a demo with common pairs. I use mostly daily tf trading.

I do not know if there are MOST predictable and/or trending pairs that can be found?

Of course if there is a better way/method to trade, I will welcome the idea, like the link.

In your opinion, what are the most trending pairs? Care to share? Once again, thanks.
  • #5
  • Jun 26, 2010 7:52am Jun 26, 2010 7:52am
Quoting smikester
I wouldn't include NZD/USD in that list because if we look at the weekly it's nasty. What we want is good trending with predictable pullbacks to support and resistance levels.

I would put GBP/CHF in the nasty list as well.

Just my opinion. This is quite subjective. In other words, each pair has its own character and I believe it's possible for a person to get good at understanding the behaviour of a pair.

I tend to be careful with pairs which have hurt me in the past. Believe me, it's not easy to forgive and forget.
Thanks for your input, smikester.

I agree to your idea - "good trending with predictable pull backs to support and resistance levels."

What are the pairs you think they have the characteristics as mentioned above?

I read some where similar to your comment about "each pair has its own character."

Since then I just could not locate further information about the characteristic of the pair. I wanted to know what does it mean "characteristic" (of the pair)? I hope you can share your experience.

Once again thanks for your time.
  • #6
  • Jun 26, 2010 6:46pm Jun 26, 2010 6:46pm
Quoting snake
Thanks TheGrind.

I am in a demo with common pairs. I use mostly daily tf trading.

I do not know if there are MOST predictable and/or trending pairs that can be found?

Of course if there is a better way/method to trade, I will welcome the idea, like the link.

In your opinion, what are the most trending pairs? Care to share? Once again, thanks.
Again, this is just my opinion and how I trade. I'm looking for trends, higher highs and higher lows.

My trading method varies from what I've seen. because I trade on the 1 minute chart. And I'm looking for a breakout trend, or the start of a buying trend.

From there it's entering on retests of support and resistance. My system seems simple to me, I can clearly see these on the chart, but I have other trading issues (taking bad trades, or trades that don't fit my system).

Anyway, to me, the most trending pairs for my system are EUR/USD and AUD/USD. They trend, have high liquidity, I get filled easily at market, and fewer spikes (than JPY pairs for example).
  • #7
  • Jun 27, 2010 4:12am Jun 27, 2010 4:12am
Quoting snake
Thanks for your input, smikester.

I agree to your idea - "good trending with predictable pull backs to support and resistance levels."

What are the pairs you think they have the characteristics as mentioned above?

I read some where similar to your comment about "each pair has its own character."

Since then I just could not locate further information about the characteristic of the pair. I wanted to know what does it mean "characteristic" (of the pair)? I hope you can share your experience.

Once again thanks for your time.
I agree with TheGrind here. EUR/USD and AUD/USD are good choices and for intra day trading especially at the times of day when they move the most. There are others but they would be biased by my personal opinion. It is a big subject but the best way to learn the characteristics is by screen time and by that I mean fundamentals as well as technicals. For example AUD/USD is heavily influenced by gold prices and JPY pairs by equities. I'm convinced GBP/CHF whipsaws because of the Swiss banking industry moving funds for bigger players.

During trend changes all pairs get spikey and close us out earlier than we would wish. This sort of behaviour can be seen every day on the hourly chart near to the London close when traders close out and at the New York open, and on the daily on Fridays when traders internationally square off the week's trading. Monthly and yearly closes are also affected. So we might look for reasons why spikes happen and how we can avoid them or even take advantage of them.

If we were to look at equity futures we might trade NZD/JPY blindly, just following equities. Have a look at this daily chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpydow100627d1.jpg Size: 154 KB


The bars are NZD/JPY and the black line is the Dow Jones Industrial average. Strange eh?

Another characteristic that springs to mind is Fibonacci levels. In my opinion cable is one pair which follows these more predictably and we will see more traders using fibs for this reason. It's a circle!

I hope I've given you some food for thought and an insight into why certain traders stick to 1 or 2 pairs with which they are more comfortable. Babypips.com calls itself a "beginner's guide to Forex trading" but has some very good information and although I'm not a beginner I often refer back there to refresh my mind when I get distracted from my goal.
Gone to a better place
  • #8
  • Jun 27, 2010 8:08pm Jun 27, 2010 8:08pm
This is based on my opinion only. Easiest trending pairs to trade for me are AUD/USD, EU/USD, and USD/CAD. The ones that give me headache are all the GBP pairs. They are usually all over the place and require bigger SL to trade.
  • #9
  • Jul 11, 2010 11:31pm Jul 11, 2010 11:31pm
I would assume all USD based currency pairs are predictable as in they all are impacted equally by USD based movement. If dollar is weak, more or less all the majors/minors move equally across the board..

Also, the technical analysis works extremely well on them.

The most predictable per me are EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF
  • #10
  • Jul 28, 2010 5:12pm Jul 28, 2010 5:12pm
I too find USD pairs easier to predict. For me JPY pairs are the worst
  • #11
  • Sep 29, 2010 6:19am Sep 29, 2010 6:19am
Quoting Jasus
I too find USD pairs easier to predict. For me JPY pairs are the worst
Agree. I vote for EUR/USD and GBP/USD as the pairs to trade.
USD/JPY seems to be the most difficult.

USD/CHF goes almost the same with EUR/USD.
  • #12
  • Last Post: Oct 6, 2010 11:07am Oct 6, 2010 11:07am
O... I just read the same author published his updated finding "5 Most Predictable Currency Pairs II"

http://www.forexcrunch.com/5-most-pr...ency-pairs-ii/

Cheers
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