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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #228,321
  • Jun 25, 2010 8:07am Jun 25, 2010 8:07am
Quoting Nene
I was not talking just to be flapping my gums. I still smell a huge selloff sometime this morning. Be carefull with longs. I have seen 500 pip selloffs on G/J on Friday before.

Jim
I've been expecting huge moves the last two Thursdays only to be disappointed. At least I learned something new that GJ does not pick certain day to move. It might have been coincidence that large moves occur on Thursdays before. I'm still buying dip for scalps and holding longterm longs from 134 for 138. I'm pretty confident there won't be a huge selloff. If there is a big move, it will be up, but it seems most likely it will range between 133 and 134.
  • #228,322
  • Jun 25, 2010 8:26am Jun 25, 2010 8:26am
Brazil vs Portugal Thank God for the World Cup.
  • #228,323
  • Jun 25, 2010 8:37am Jun 25, 2010 8:37am
Quoting Nene
I was not talking just to be flapping my gums. I still smell a huge selloff sometime this morning. Be carefull with longs. I have seen 500 pip selloffs on G/J on Friday before.

Jim
I agree GJ PA is very suspect and there appears to be no upwards interest; GU behaving similarly with the 1.5 rejection. Equity sentiment remains negative on the whole. The market needs a catalyst and a moderate few or one big spurt of bad news and it will head down. G20 might be the catalyst, so hard to say if we'll see anything today or something over the weekend. Or, we could just see a continued slow grind down - all world market's have been down over Friday's session. We might even need to wait for NFP, and if as expected the news is bad, that will be tank city: it is the single most looked at metric by all traders, by many factors. Also, if this rumour materializes, it will be of Lehman-type impact:

British Petroleum plc Hearing chatter that company is seeking bankruptcy protection
- Market talks are spurred by a Nomura research note that observes that company's inverted yield suggest that company may face a credit-event. The perception of a credit risk happening raises pressure on the company to receive the necessary funding to cap the well and meet the 'fat-tail' scenarios.

  • #228,324
  • Jun 25, 2010 9:45am Jun 25, 2010 9:45am
Quoting Beljevina
I agree GJ PA is very suspect and there appears to be no upwards interest; GU behaving similarly with the 1.5 rejection. Equity sentiment remains negative on the whole. The market needs a catalyst and a moderate few or one big spurt of bad news and it will head down. G20 might be the catalyst, so hard to say if we'll see anything today or something over the weekend. Or, we could just see a continued slow grind down - all world market's have been down over Friday's session. We might even need to wait for NFP, and if as expected the news is bad, that...
There have been plenty of bad fundies this week, major ltl broken and still fierce buying at every single micro dip.

Either a selloff is coming or else there is far more money in child kidnapping, heroin, and other "as below" activities than anyone had estimated.
  • #228,325
  • Jun 25, 2010 10:23am Jun 25, 2010 10:23am
daily and weekly for medium and short term direction.

- weekly is moving inside an ascending channel, with upper limit @ 134.70 and lower limit @ 131.65.
- daily is moving inside a descending channel, with upper limit @ 134.70 and lower limit @ 133.43.

medium term direction (weekly channel) is up. short term direction (daily channel) is down. not much to analyze here... sell @ upper limit, and buy @ lower limit until there is a breakout.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #228,326
  • Jun 25, 2010 11:54am Jun 25, 2010 11:54am
The ratio of buyers to sellers for the GBPUSD is -1.29

This signifies that there are -1.29 sellers for every 1 buyer.

Retail positioning is a contrarian indicator so further upside is expected.
http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/i...20100625095407
  • #228,327
  • Jun 25, 2010 12:24pm Jun 25, 2010 12:24pm
The only thing that may make some sense is the compression of daily EMA's...if that comes into play, we are looking at hitting 1,5130ish which coincides with monthly R1=1.5135. Nothing more makes sense to me at this point. H4 and H1 have skppied their compression and they are actually diverging...

Quoting qtmspin
The ratio of buyers to sellers for the GBPUSD is -1.29

This signifies that there are -1.29 sellers for every 1 buyer.

Retail positioning is a contrarian indicator so further upside is expected.
http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/i...20100625095407
  • #228,328
  • Jun 26, 2010 11:07am Jun 26, 2010 11:07am
G/J ...I will keep my short open till 127.xx area. goodluck to all.
  • #228,329
  • Jun 26, 2010 3:14pm Jun 26, 2010 3:14pm
to post and tell you guys why we are here but there might be someone out there wondering basically we are driven by uj and cable charts below show opposite direction so traders are taking profit on the dollar not necessarily buying sterling so i think and i would like opinions otherwise whats the point in posting we test geppy resistance before we turn south in other words we are looking for signs of strength to get the breakout on geppy like i said or in other words i would favour uj to stall before cable's rally hence geppy testing resistance but we have to bear in mind when uj stalls and cable changes meaning dollar buying geppy will be sold but thats the next leg or wave
it hasnt been easy but i did post also that profit taking on a daily basis was the way forward could be wrong but ive noted my plan and mistakes


good luck my friends
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  • #228,330
  • Edited 11:59pm Jun 26, 2010 11:46pm | Edited 11:59pm
introduce to you traders my new friend GBP USD
I will rest my head for while from GJ and its head burning PA
--------
by the way ...

celebrating the 300 posts im happy with my history & proud of it on FF.. well done Alaa Maanawi


Happy week end for all
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  • #228,331
  • Jun 27, 2010 5:52am Jun 27, 2010 5:52am
Quoting Kamran Khan
G/J ...I will keep my short open till 127.xx area. goodluck to all.
It would seem to me on the basis of fundamentals that this pair should be going down.

On the other hand, just where do you think it will go before turning around?
  • #228,332
  • Jun 27, 2010 3:04pm Jun 27, 2010 3:04pm
Quoting moonchild
It would seem to me on the basis of fundamentals that this pair should be going down.

On the other hand, just where do you think it will go before turning around?
Daily candle hanged on suppertline which is now resistance & not breaked yet. if break then 136.40 is daily high price.
  • #228,333
  • Jun 27, 2010 3:27pm Jun 27, 2010 3:27pm
Hmmm... I have been waiting, waiting and waiting.... for the PA to head up above the 50% fib. retracement which is around 136.30-40 level... When PA is acting like this I look to buy and sell at support and resistance levels which is ranging from 133 to 136 levels until either direction breaks...

Now with the G20 finished I would expect VIX to head back down, yen to weaken, cable to strengthen, with a corresponding rise in the G/Y to attack the resistance level of 136 once again...

Let's see what this week brings...
Traderdesk -
  • #228,334
  • Jun 27, 2010 4:00pm Jun 27, 2010 4:00pm
I could be very wrong about this but with the yuan appreciating due to becoming unpegged, I would think that this would strengthen the yen.

As to the GBP, I cannot see any fundamental reason for it to be strengthening. While the USD is not a good bet, the USD issues are not as immediate as the GBP ones. In addition, I would think that a strengthening of the yuan would be helpful to the USD.

I am thinking that the pair may be forming a double top on the 15M or may go up to a significant resistance in the 135-135.20 area before heading south.
  • #228,335
  • Jun 27, 2010 9:26pm Jun 27, 2010 9:26pm
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...d=afcCZJk5pD_s

still keep
  • #228,336
  • Jun 27, 2010 9:30pm Jun 27, 2010 9:30pm
Watch this & read the link below!

http://www.google.com/search?sourcei...of+gulf+region
  • #228,337
  • Jun 27, 2010 9:41pm Jun 27, 2010 9:41pm
Quoting Allseeingeye
Watch this & read the link below!

http://www.google.com/search?sourcei...of+gulf+region
so what, they preparing to nuke the whole place?
  • #228,338
  • Jun 27, 2010 9:43pm Jun 27, 2010 9:43pm

Sunday, June 27, 2010 19:35:30
(US) RBS is telling clients to prepare for significant money printing by the Fed - Telegraph Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
- Comments on a speech by the Fed's Bernanke from 8 years ago in which he noted that the extreme monetary stimulus is needed in order to deal with deflation.
- Notes the Fed's Board has quietly penciled in $5T as the upper limit for quantitative easing (QE).
- Notes how the ECRI leading index last week declined to -6.9, index is dropping faster than at any time during the post-War era.

**Reminder from June 24th: (US) London Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard comments on the battle that Fed Chairman Bernanke is facing within the central bank; Key members of the Fed's board are quietly mulling new asset purchases, if needed by pushing the Fed's balance sheet from $2.4T to $5T.

  • #228,339
  • Jun 27, 2010 10:04pm Jun 27, 2010 10:04pm
Quoting Eulogy
so what, they preparing to nuke the whole place?
When you have time.. watch the last 6 videos [from part25] attached at the bottom of the page.. Some technical info on BP.. spill.. they penetrated the strata.. of the earth.. and YES. NUKING the Earth Core is one of the options they are looking now..

The pressure comings from the core of the earth is HUGE.. Nothing can stop the leak..

http://indianinthemachine.wordpress....pair%E2%80%9D/
  • #228,340
  • Jun 27, 2010 10:21pm Jun 27, 2010 10:21pm
Quoting Piters
When you have time.. watch the last 6 videos [from part25] attached at the bottom of the page.. Some technical info on BP.. spill.. they penetrated the strata.. of the earth.. and YES. NUKING the Earth Core is one of the options they are looking now..

The pressure comings from the core of the earth is HUGE.. Nothing can stop the leak..

http://indianinthemachine.wordpress....pair%E2%80%9D/
thanks mate. will look into it when i get home later tonight. Right now stuck in the office with my POS computer so can't view them in my lunch break .

Factors i would like to put is, nuking the sea bed at that depth has never been done before. Even if they do manage to melt the well closed what's gonna happen to the millions of gallons of oil already out in the water, not to mention the oil that's been deliberately dispersed via chemicals.
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