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Silent Service Method

  • #9,381
  • Jun 24, 2010 4:14pm Jun 24, 2010 4:14pm
Sometimes I miss the obvious......a ton of money could have been made here.
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  • #9,382
  • Jun 24, 2010 7:09pm Jun 24, 2010 7:09pm
Notice this chart, I am not wanting to short this.....but gold does tend to have violent corrections when they come. I would be very weary of getting in now, and especially so if this trend line gets broken.
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  • #9,383
  • Jun 24, 2010 7:15pm Jun 24, 2010 7:15pm
A tertiary indicator on what the economy might be doing:

Check out Copper....
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  • #9,384
  • Jun 25, 2010 7:12am Jun 25, 2010 7:12am
It looks like there might be a weekly PIN forming on AUDCAD.

Any thoughts on this?
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  • #9,385
  • Jun 25, 2010 7:18am Jun 25, 2010 7:18am
Low,

GBPUSD is has just 4H pinned on 1.5 as SUPPORT... You may get your break.

I am closing my short since its currently in the black as now I think I will at least get a better chance to short it, if not a true break.
  • #9,386
  • Jun 25, 2010 7:27am Jun 25, 2010 7:27am
I think we may have a box forming here. Perhaps we are going to see the summer range bound, as other traders have been discussing?
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  • #9,387
  • Jun 25, 2010 7:31am Jun 25, 2010 7:31am
Quoting jharvey407
It looks like there might be a weekly PIN forming on AUDCAD.

Any thoughts on this?
It looks like you might also be ready to form a range or box as well......

I believe the support right under this might hold, therefore confirming my thoughts. I would keep a downward bias though....
  • #9,388
  • Jun 25, 2010 7:32am Jun 25, 2010 7:32am
Quoting jharvey407
I think we may have a box forming here. Perhaps we are going to see the summer range bound, as other traders have been discussing?
I've been thinking this for about a week. Early days to tell - but very possible. Do yourself a favor, only sell it at the top. Don't bother buying it. Certainly there is more risk to the down than to the up on this pair.
  • #9,389
  • Jun 25, 2010 7:52am Jun 25, 2010 7:52am
Quoting clockwork71
Do yourself a favor, only sell it at the top.
Good advice.

I have been telling myself to be patient. Trade only in the direction of the major trend, and to WAIT FOR SIGNAL, don't just sell at resistance.

As I see the market seem to become range bound I have adjusted my strategy a bit to take advantage of the patterns. After making a series of BE trades I have begun to use the local SR as targets.

Here is a chart of the AUDUSD trade I took over the last couple of days.
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  • #9,390
  • Jun 25, 2010 7:56am Jun 25, 2010 7:56am
Any thoughts on EURAUD........

RN 1.4300, With Trend, Bounce off TL and OB forming otherwise pass for me.......cheers and nice weekend all..........................
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  • #9,391
  • Jun 25, 2010 8:06am Jun 25, 2010 8:06am
Here is another box trade that I have running. I am hoping it will hit the target today.

I did not enter this trade thinking of it as a box trade, but revised my strategy by adding a target once I realized that these boxes seemed to be forming, especially on the EUR pairs.

I realize that by using a target I may be cutting my profit, but I feel the chances of a bounce are higher then the chances of a break.

I also believe that if this pair does break through the support that there will be other opportunities to short it again later. Maybe we'll get a break and a test of 109.
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  • #9,392
  • Jun 25, 2010 11:15am Jun 25, 2010 11:15am
Quoting jharvey407
Here is another box trade that I have running. I am hoping it will hit the target today.

I did not enter this trade thinking of it as a box trade, but revised my strategy by adding a target once I realized that these boxes seemed to be forming, especially on the EUR pairs.

I realize that by using a target I may be cutting my profit, but I feel the chances of a bounce are higher then the chances of a break.

I also believe that if this pair does break through the support that there will be other opportunities to short it again later. Maybe we'll...
Zoom out. Its a giant and incredibly reliable channel trade.

http://i49.tinypic.com/14y7ns9.gif

http://i46.tinypic.com/33oqv6c.gif

Im in it too, already took first contract off and am just above BE on the stop. Its currently sitting at some midterm resistance, but I think it will break through.
  • #9,393
  • Jun 25, 2010 12:15pm Jun 25, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting jharvey407
It looks like there might be a weekly PIN forming on AUDCAD.

Any thoughts on this?
I bought this trade on 15/6 off of weeky PB. Still long +150pips. Looking at Daily seems to be forming PB off of 0.9000. Could still be a long trade?
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  • #9,394
  • Jun 25, 2010 12:41pm Jun 25, 2010 12:41pm
Quoting Maggioz
I bought this trade on 15/6 off of weeky PB. Still long +150pips. Looking at Daily seems to be forming PB off of 0.9000. Could still be a long trade?
I think you're right. The weekly PIN is failing and a daily PIN is forming.

It looks like a break and a test of 0.9000.

I'll be looking for a long opportunity.
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  • #9,395
  • Jun 25, 2010 12:43pm Jun 25, 2010 12:43pm
Quoting TraderDavo
Zoom out. Its a giant and incredibly reliable channel trade.

Im in it too, already took first contract off and am just above BE on the stop. Its currently sitting at some midterm resistance, but I think it will break through.
Davo,

I don't use channels the way you do, but I do see your point.

I am going to trade this as a 'box' trade. If if does break down I will be looking to short below. If it continues in the box I'll be looking for short entries as it works it's way across your channel.
  • #9,396
  • Edited 12:46pm Jun 25, 2010 12:45pm | Edited 12:46pm
Quoting TraderDavo
Low,

GBPUSD is has just 4H pinned on 1.5 as SUPPORT... You may get your break.

I am closing my short since its currently in the black as now I think I will at least get a better chance to short it, if not a true break.
I think it will come back to test 1.50 in a few days. You could short it for a couple of hundred pips (if I'm right). My hope is to see some bullish PA around 1.4850-1.50 to add more longs.

First we'll have to see if the break holds.
  • #9,397
  • Jun 25, 2010 12:59pm Jun 25, 2010 12:59pm
PS:

Another way to view today's action on the pound is not as a break, but as a stop-run, and the the southward train can start again.

I was confused by all the folks who wanted to short the pound at 1.50 when it was clear that there wasn't any kind of fight at that price. I guess I figure that if it's gonna turn around, you'll see a spike (pin bar) as the new breakout longs get on board looking to get rich, followed by immense selling pressure by the big boys to pick up the stops both ways (weak longs and weak shorts).

IMO it could still happen today. I guess I just don't trust a "reversal" that that neither runs the nearby stops, or puts up any kind of fight over a significant level.
  • #9,398
  • Jun 25, 2010 1:27pm Jun 25, 2010 1:27pm
Short trade I took off of 4H BEPB box trade on Mon + 147pips. Looks at the moment as if it has hit support on Daily chart will probably hold onto it and see how it goes on Sun/Mon
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  • #9,399
  • Jun 25, 2010 1:30pm Jun 25, 2010 1:30pm
Daily box trade
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  • #9,400
  • Jun 25, 2010 1:35pm Jun 25, 2010 1:35pm
It's Friday, and I've done very well on these trades. In the interest of keeping some of the money I made.....

After reviewing the original charts I printed upon entry to these trades, I had marked 109.50 as first target (I know I said 108, but my print-outs don't lie) I closed 1/2 of my first position on the swissy at 722 pips. The second position is still on at 586 pips, and both stops were moved to 1.12.

http://i47.tinypic.com/2f0akjm.png

Of the total of 5 equal-size positions on the pound, I closed the 3 newest for 200 pips, 500 pips, and 480 pips respectively. 2 positions remain from the 1.44 area, stops on both were moved to 1.4663, and I will be looking to add longs next week should the opportunity arise.

http://i48.tinypic.com/14buphj.png

As a disclaimer, I have done quite a bit of damage to my account since last November, and have a long way to go to get to account BE, but these exits yielded a 100% account gain.

I am satisfied.

I think these trades have been the ones that completely shift my view on my trading. Something I may elaborate on later.

Have a good weekend everyone.
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