well my 3 trades based on VP data today have been....disastrous. Oh well, the big USD/CHF one is open until next wednesday so there's still time for it to trend up above 1.8.
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Quoting cgldsmthDislikedwell my 3 trades based on VP data today have been....disastrous. Oh well, the big USD/CHF one is open until next wednesday so there's still time for it to trend up above 1.8.Ignored
Quoting cgldsmthDislikedmy rules for entry in a bear/bull bet are:
Is there strong evidence of a trend? I look at the chart and resistance levels. Then I look at VP: the PMA5 for a crossover, the PTS/PTM for change of sign or at least weakening of trend, and the neural index. The diffs are supposed to help "confirm".
Then at about 6AM I place my trade if the price is toward the daily predicted extremes (ie. for an up-trend bull-bet I'd obviously aim to enter near the predicted low).
Remember I'm using fixed-odds betting here, nothing to do with pips and margins etc. The bull/bear bets have 5 days to expire, so my USD/CHF from today must be above 1.8 on wednsday 2400 to win. It closed 1.63 today.
Basically the USD was hammered today and went against the VP data, thanks to weak retail sales data anticipating loose FED policy. VP cannot predict this!Ignored
Quoting cgldsmthDislikedmy rules for entry in a bear/bull bet are:
Is there strong evidence of a trend? I look at the chart and resistance levels. Then I look at VP: the PMA5 for a crossover, the PTS/PTM for change of sign or at least weakening of trend, and the neural index. The diffs are supposed to help "confirm".
Then at about 6AM I place my trade if the price is toward the daily predicted extremes (ie. for an up-trend bull-bet I'd obviously aim to enter near the predicted low).
Remember I'm using fixed-odds betting here, nothing to do with pips and margins etc. The bull/bear bets have 5 days to expire, so my USD/CHF from today must be above 1.8 on wednsday 2400 to win. It closed 1.63 today.
Basically the USD was hammered today and went against the VP data, thanks to weak retail sales data anticipating loose FED policy. VP cannot predict this!Ignored
Quoting fijitraderDislikedOk I missed the significance of your previous comments about fixed odds betting. I thought you meant that metaphorically rather than actually. I'll be interested to see how you do with that.
For what it's worth if I was using VP for fixed odds betting I'd look for a definite trend change and watch for it to get underway in such a a manner that it had at least one day where the market opened half way through the daily range and shoot through the predicted limit of the daily range -- with all indicators pointing the same way for at least two to four days previous. This is the strongest indicator I've seen that will send the next two days upward. I'm not sure I'd bet on any other conditions than those using VP. I'd also look for a significant and increasing differential between the predicted 10 day MA and the actual 10 day MA.
FTIgnored
Quoting foggyTraderDislikedHey everyone,
I just have a couple of questions if anyone could help me. Firstly, (you'l have to understand I am new to this game) does the data for the pairs that VP produces run from 12:00am (midnight) to 23:59pm each day? Secondly, Im in the UK so does this effect the time as my midnight is ahead of the midnight in the US?Ignored
QuoteDislikedQUOTE=foggyTrader]Hey everyone,
This is my first posting on the forum and I would just like to say thanks to fijitrader for all the efforts that have been made to figure out some sort of system that VP can be used with. Like many of you I have only recently begun to use VP and have found the research from fijitrader and everyone else extremely valuable, so big thanks guys
QuoteDislikedI just have a couple of questions if anyone could help me. Firstly, (you'l have to understand I am new to this game) does the data for the pairs that VP produces run from 12:00am (midnight) to 23:59pm each day? Secondly, Im in the UK so does this effect the time as my midnight is ahead of the midnight in the US?
QuoteDislikedAnyway, thanks again to everyone and hopefully in the months ahead I can contribute somewhat.
Quoting drjoe4xDislikedFiji, BeachBum and All Others,
Just wondering if anyone has been working on the VP data with consistency lately...I know I have been busy with the PF and I'm sure Fiji has as well...just looking to see if anyone has been finding anything interesting...I stopped with the 20+ wins using VP data just b/c I felt my results were based on too much discretion to provide a mechanical system using the data...I still think it can be done and I have been using VP data as my first indicator, combine that with James16 PA and support/resistance and the results have been really good...trying only to take "A" trades and getting about 1-2 trades per day, again with no losers in the past week...again, only "A" trades and not trying to take all the pips, just make a good gain...anywhere from 8-50 pips and averaging around 20-25 per trade...
Hope BeachBum and others can step in and give some testing results...
Look forward to VP discussion continuing and hope everyone is on their way to becoming better traders...thanks to Fiji, James, Dial and many others here I know I am and I know everyone else who will listen to them will be too.
This is how I look each night after going thru the PF and material presented by the great guys above at about 1am --- :surprisedIgnored
Quoting drjoe4xDislikedFiji, BeachBum and All Others,
Just wondering if anyone has been working on the VP data with consistency lately...I know I have been busy with the PF and I'm sure Fiji has as well...just looking to see if anyone has been finding anything interesting...I stopped with the 20+ wins using VP data just b/c I felt my results were based on too much discretion to provide a mechanical system using the data...I still think it can be done and I have been using VP data as my first indicator, combine that with James16 PA and support/resistance and the results have been really good...trying only to take "A" trades and getting about 1-2 trades per day, again with no losers in the past week...again, only "A" trades and not trying to take all the pips, just make a good gain...anywhere from 8-50 pips and averaging around 20-25 per trade...
Hope BeachBum and others can step in and give some testing results...
Look forward to VP discussion continuing and hope everyone is on their way to becoming better traders...thanks to Fiji, James, Dial and many others here I know I am and I know everyone else who will listen to them will be too.
This is how I look each night after going thru the PF and material presented by the great guys above at about 1am --- :surprisedIgnored
Quoting BeachBumDislikedEarlier in this thread I commented on using VP with eur/usd with a very simple 'set & forget' system which yielded very good results as follows:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>
Set entry order 15 pips before predicted H/L<o></o>
25 pip S/L<o></o>
50 pip T/P<o></o>
I wrote then when VP was wrong about the predicted H/L it was usually WAY wrong, that is the value blew through the predicted value and went a considerable distance beyond. <o></o>
In examining data for 60 trading days, I had 24 winners and 30 loosers for a total net profit of approximately 450 pips. (6 no trade days)<o></o>
However, before going on to examine VP with other currency pairs, I went back and did some additional research with very interesting results. Because of the above mentioned large errors on some occasions, I wondered; what if there was a 'stop & reverse' entry order in place for the times when the value went more than 10 pips beyond the predicted H/L? This would in effect then become a 'breakout' trade (very popular for some traders). <o></o>
For the 'breakout' trades I used a:<o></o>
15 pip S/L<o></o>
35 pip T/P<o></o>
30 new trades would have been triggered with the following results:<o></o>
12 loosers<o></o>
18 winners (managing these trades would have achieved large profits on some trades!)<o></o>
<o></o>
Recap:<o></o>
First set of trades:<o></o>
<o></o>
24 winners x 50 pips = 1200 pips<o></o>
30 loosers x 25 pips = 750 pips
(450 pip gain less 108 pips for broker = 342 pip gain)
<o></o>
Second set of trades:<o></o>
<o></o>
18 winners x 35 pips = 630 pips<o></o>
12 loosers x 15 pips = 180 pips<o></o>
<o></o>
Net gain from both sets of trades: +900 pips <o></o>
<o></o>
I have not deducted broker margin from the above which would equal 84 trades times spread (2 pip spread would mean a 168 pip deduction from 900 = 732 profit)
A 732 pip profit for 60 trading days is not spectacular, but is respectable, I believe, for a 'set & forget' system that is completely mechanical. All of these trades 'could' have been minimally managed for greater profit, in some cases the increase in profit would have been substantial.
As always, this information is for educational purposes, and I welcome any and all constructive criticism and observations. I'm now moving on to scrutinize other pairs, and if anyone has a request regarding this analysis process, please let me know, here or in a PM.
<o></o>
<o></o>Ignored
Quoting drjoe4xDislikedBB,
Let me know what date range you used for your 60 days and I will look for further trade filters on your above results (ie daily, wkly trends...s/r...pa analysis, all VP indicators, etc...). That way you can move on to the other pairs and I can assess your current results with further defined rules...just to see if there is a more predictable pattern.
Thx BB, your time and effort are greatly appreciated.
drjoeIgnored
Quoting TrinityDislikedBB
Very useful trials.
For your B.O. trades you wrote "more than 10 pips beyond the predicted H/L". What was your entry stop -- 15 pips >/< H/L of VP?
Thank you.
TrinityIgnored