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vsa with Malcolm

  • #501
  • Jun 24, 2010 11:27am Jun 24, 2010 11:27am
Do you think this was a failed attempt to break out short?
It's looking more and more like a short is coming rather than a long.

What do you think?
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  • #502
  • Jun 24, 2010 11:34am Jun 24, 2010 11:34am
Quoting Beljevina
They're lurkers, without FF IDs. They tend to be the majority on most valuable threads. ......
Thanks for that. So the 'members' are not neccesarily members of this thread?

Quoting Beljevina
......Makes you wonder how many are managing real/big money accounts and getting their compass here.
If they're taking their tips from me they're in trouble
  • #503
  • Jun 24, 2010 11:43am Jun 24, 2010 11:43am
Quoting malcolmb14
for sure see the shake out bars ... but do not forget that buying climax 1.2335 top

also flip into a 60 min I think you may get a better picture of what is going on here.

the reversal at the bottom good spot to get in

Attachment

I see what you were getting at, thanks for that.
It could have gone either way looking at the H1 chart.
  • #504
  • Jun 24, 2010 11:51am Jun 24, 2010 11:51am
Quoting malcolmb14
for sure see the shake out bars ... but do not forget that buying climax 1.2335 top

also flip into a 60 min I think you may get a better picture of what is going on here.

the reversal at the bottom good spot to get in

Attachment
Hey, I've made it onto one of The masters charts and he's NOT telling people to ignore everything I say.......I feel like I've come of age
  • #505
  • Jun 24, 2010 11:56am Jun 24, 2010 11:56am
How do you interpret this...

Weaknes, because bar closed at the low...or
Strength, because SM is buying on down bars...


Regards
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  • #506
  • Jun 24, 2010 12:20pm Jun 24, 2010 12:20pm
Quoting Intel
OFF TOPIC

If I may Malcolm,

It says we have 44 viewers on the thread of which 17 are members.

Does it mean members of this thread or members of FF?
I think 17 subscribed and the others non subscribed but looking in
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  • #507
  • Jun 24, 2010 12:21pm Jun 24, 2010 12:21pm
Quoting toob
How do you interpret this...

Weaknes, because bar closed at the low...or
Strength, because SM is buying on down bars...


Regards

that was sellers ... zoom in a a 5 min and see where the volume happened on that 15 .. in the top price range of bar on a 5 min chart was sellers selling the double top
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  • #508
  • Jun 24, 2010 12:23pm Jun 24, 2010 12:23pm
I was (am) one of the lurkers.

I clear my browser cache every session and since I don't login to FF often, I show up as a nonmember yet a viewer.
  • #509
  • Jun 24, 2010 12:25pm Jun 24, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting toob
How do you interpret this...

Weaknes, because bar closed at the low...or
Strength, because SM is buying on down bars...


Regards
You have a wide spread up bar on volume higher than the previous 2 bars (possible supply coming in).

Next you have an UT closing on the low with Ultra high volume. Confirming that there is a massive amount of supply on this bar.

With the next bar a down bar also, confirming the UT.

WEAKNESS.
  • #510
  • Jun 24, 2010 12:38pm Jun 24, 2010 12:38pm
Thank you both! That type of bars allways confuse me. So, if I don't know exactly what's going on, I just look in smaller tf.


Regards
  • #511
  • Jun 24, 2010 2:29pm Jun 24, 2010 2:29pm
Another point of view...

3 sessions GU stay at 1.5000 level.All efforts go thru that level was failed.To me looks like SM defend higher levels and prepare for retrace.All volume today resulting to that (note EU made very strong return from lows but GU stay below 1.5.

Any comments are welcome.
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  • #512
  • Jun 24, 2010 4:04pm Jun 24, 2010 4:04pm
From the premise that the mkt is unstructured and continuous, I figure that we have to impose some kind of constraints on our trading (or else end up working 24/7 as i sometimes try to do). By creating structure out of--putting limits on--what to look for in price, time, or volume, we can start to create a plan. VSA talks to price & volume and the only part it leaves completely open for us to structure ourselves is TIME.

I have been overwhelming myself trying to make sense of all the VSA action i could find on a chart. I am trying on the idea of reducing my trading to certain times (mkt opens) and avoiding other times entirely in order to see VSA setups more easily. You've got to do something to make sense of this continuous nonstop market, I figure.

Since sessions sometimes reverse the previous session, let's try to put some structure around when to look for VSA setups. Maybe looking for the same setups again and again, at the same time of day, could create an edge that moves us toward trading more consistently.


H1 EU chart.
Sorry for the abundance of lines on this chart. The Asia opens are the red dash-dot vertical lines. Look how many times the 2 bars around the Asia open tell you what's going to happen in the Asia session. If you wait until this Asia open bar (under the vertical line) is finished, and use VSA on this bar and the previous bar to look for a possible reversal, it seems that where the VSA & price action is obvious (climax, upthrust, dbl bottom, etc) on one of those bars, a short reversal happens much more often than not. This pattern may apply to Frankie or London open too?

1. Consider the most recent move and where it may be at in its maturity.
2. Wait for 10am EST bar to close.
3. Wait for 11am EST bar to close
4. Look for VSA signs of possible reversal. Don't force it.
5. Trade only to the next S/R (pivot, Fib, previous swing hi/low, etc)

I have done a modest amount of backtesting but please do your own and add to the party before attempting to trade this blindly. I hope we can refine this or refute it, together. What about certain days of the week showing clearer VSA setups..?

good trading everyone
  • #513
  • Jun 24, 2010 4:28pm Jun 24, 2010 4:28pm
i ve looked at data schedule right now, and untill wednesday there is not any RED data from USA & UK.

but, on wednesday, we have nonfarm data... and additional 2-3 more red data from uk-usa...

so what ?

i am wondering in the long projection such as 1-2 week period what could be the cables move...

dow is collapsed so far this week, eurusd also didnot show any increase as gbp. gbp also didnot decreased as eurusd weeks before...

i want to ask, whether, could we apply vsa in long term ? if yes, is it possible to draw a probable path for the next weeks for the cable ?

i have checked daily chart and volumes, price has decreased from november 2009 and makes new -lows with higher volumes. every dip's volume is more than previous ones. however, this volume is still lower than when price is about 1,35s 1&half year ago. ( i assume dukas volume on daily chart is close to esignal around 2009).

so before seeing close volumes as seen in the beginning of 2009, i donot wait for dramatic increases, and cable seems to visit to lower levels.. and volume should be much much more , cause after 1-half year, this market should attract more interest with higher participation and corresponding volumes.
besides, we havent yet broken long-term down trednline's resistance but we ve touched it today i think.. if i didnt draw wrong.

and news about "yen or yuan" and increase of Eur seems all artifical to make people feel these levels are bottoms... and buy these dips..

and lots of game theories..

cheers babies
  • #514
  • Jun 24, 2010 4:43pm Jun 24, 2010 4:43pm
what if the market is structured every day and the plan is made at the beginning of the week ? lol

I know you are going to think I am nuts but I honestly belive this and all we have to do is follow their plan. This is why vsa works so well.

I have also heard form bank pro traders that price levels for the next day are predetermined.

I was trading es all day

1070 to exactly 1081 , then back to 1070 like clockwork.... talk about trading bots.

Quoting djarum11
From the premise that the mkt is unstructured and continuous, I figure that we have to impose some kind of constraints on our trading (or else end up working 24/7 as i sometimes try to do). By creating structure out of--putting limits on--what to look for in price, time, or volume, we can start to create a plan. VSA talks to price & volume and the only part it leaves completely open for us to structure ourselves is TIME.

I have been overwhelming myself trying to make sense of all the VSA action i could find on a chart. I am trying on the...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #515
  • Jun 24, 2010 4:44pm Jun 24, 2010 4:44pm
My bet that the distribution I noted on gu in an earlier posting takes her down into the 4500 thru next week

BTW did anyone notice the weekly volume on GU ? can someone please tell me what is going on ? lol I know ... just want to see if you guys can pick it up

I will also check this agianst futures at end of day tomorrow.


Quoting bruceli
i ve looked at data schedule right now, and untill wednesday there is not any RED data from USA & UK.

but, on wednesday, we have nonfarm data... and additional 2-3 more red data from uk-usa...

so what ?

i am wondering in the long projection such as 1-2 week period what could be the cables move...

dow is collapsed so far this week, eurusd also didnot show any increase as gbp. gbp also didnot decreased as eurusd weeks before...

i want to ask, whether, could we apply vsa in long term ? if yes, is it possible to draw a probable path for...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #516
  • Jun 24, 2010 4:52pm Jun 24, 2010 4:52pm
Great thread Mal. Very educative posts as usual.
  • #517
  • Jun 24, 2010 4:55pm Jun 24, 2010 4:55pm
Quoting malcolmb14
My bet that the distribution I noted on gu in an earlier posting takes her down into the 4500 thru next week

BTW did anyone notice the weekly volume on GU ? can someone please tell me what is going on ? lol I know ... just want to see if you guys can pick it up

I will also check this agianst futures at end of day tomorrow.
HAHAHAHA,

let me look at it , i hope i can see something.. i can look but i may not see

and i want to pick up it mate

cheers..
  • #518
  • Jun 24, 2010 5:06pm Jun 24, 2010 5:06pm
Quoting bruceli
HAHAHAHA,

let me look at it , i hope i can see something.. i can look but i may not see

and i want to pick up it mate

cheers..

ah yes looked at weekly futures .... tis there also .. all depends on how much vol we see tomorrow...

If this is case forget 500 pip down move .. think 1.3900
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  • #519
  • Jun 24, 2010 5:11pm Jun 24, 2010 5:11pm
Quoting malcolmb14
ah yes looked at weekly futures .... tis there also .. all depends on how much vol we see tomorrow...

If this is case forget 500 pip down move .. think 1.3900
this is weekly, and something seems very nasty

increasing price versus decreasing price.. hmmmm :S

and my dream is, to reach 23,6 level with 100.000 lots position and get all them in 2 weeks

did i think too much ,
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  • #520
  • Jun 24, 2010 5:14pm Jun 24, 2010 5:14pm
things just warming up ....

dj weekly for those that like ew ...wave 3 moving towards 8300. (chart1 )

chart 2 aj bear flag on daily .... target 67

ES 850

I have bought dxd july 28 calls , but those with iras etc that allow options may think about slightly out of money 30 october calls. They should double if these charts play out

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