USDCAD trend reversal?

1.0220 support area to watch.

M chart getting close to a bottom

Still scalp (sell <0220 but H tf)

No you are not wrong. It wants to go to parity and it will once things settle down with the uncertainty in the market. Just keep your eye on oil prices. Chances are it will go up like it always does in the summer and the USDCAD will correspondingly go down.

I am still watching 0224!

H& 15M tf's: I am buying (20 pip TP). 0360 is the 50 ema (good resistance pt) on D chart.

Bank sheet suggests mkt pricing in a BoC int rate hike in July.
Canadian fundamentals still strong. Russia buying loonie.

If/when 0220 break: I plan to sell U/C & buy the Beaver.

But as Easy St suggested: watch the commodities. ( A/U & Kiwi are in O/S territory on STO).

Interesting M chart: M Nov/07 - Apr/10 up TL but the 5 is down even tho' STO is O/S & going up ( still bearish with small TPs).

W chart:STO & 50 ema are heading down. The High 0360 would have to be broken upside for me to be bullish.

DTF: STO is o/s 0350 is the 50 ema.There was an up TL break (May 13-June 14)

On M chart: 0140 is Prev Supp (Mar/Apr)

0110 is 14 May low. I shall short to this level.

HOWEVER; watch Parity. I agree with FOTO's prior posts that the comm$ shall bow to the US$.Reread M chart.

add more long at 1.0200 will wait for 1.0100 to add more long ....

This may be the long awaited move towards prudence in soverign finance.

GBP/CAD has been taking off like a rocket with the Cameron/Osborne budget.
Merkle is talking budget restraint.
Even Aussie has a chink in its armor of commodities.

What a suprise if Bernanke is forced to give a nod towards the USD to prevent a selloff in bonds. The lake ice is thin and Benny and Obama are the only two far away from shore.

Digging a deeper debt hole remains no solution.

The proponents that inflation is the only outcome people are heavily the majority. From this mornings CAD retail possibly the Herd is wrong.

Just have to deal with the currency intervention that keeps occuring. No matter how much they have, the markets are quite much larger. I would spec out this mornings move in AUD/USD as example. The same thing happened a few evenings ago, same pair. What matters is what the market does with the move. Do they hop along in sync or take it the other way.

Manipulation only works if it is in the direction the market is willing to go.

It is an erroneous judgement that consumers will run up the credit tab again because the Keynisians expect them to. Most people are using everything they have got to get out of debt.
The magnitude of indebtedness is the basis for those who believe that deflation is the future. Whether it is benign or destructive in outcome remains to be seen.

Would also suggest by extension that China without the worlds consumer running up its credit card is in deep trouble. You can pick the commodity pair that is most attached to the umbelical cord of China for a short based upon this postulation.

190 pips allready and still going up. hopefully 250 pips profit to my account.

close with 244 pips at 1.0444, realy satisfaying after waiting for 3 weeks...... Canada shows a bad number at forexfactory calendar. i really sure this pair will goes up. but i never expect this fast....
US also show a bad number for home sales. i dont know why this pair is going north so fast....

Hard to say for sure, but the year and one half frittered away on deficit spending and monetary policy is bearing its' fruit today. Without real economy job growth the recovery if it is even happening is cast in doubt.

The market can no longer deny what the numbers are saying. The consumer is not coming back and the commodity bubble is overextended.
No recovery based upon hyped up prices has appeared.

Consequently the Herd of inflation based porfolios has distorted market levels.

Have remained short commodity currencies on the long time frames. Not a pleasant call but still believe it to be the right one.

The deflation has at least one to two years to run its' course.

Was today's PA a "knee jerk" reaction to CAD news? Both kiwi & OZ advanced due to China's proximity as per FOTO. Long term I wholeheartedly support FOTO's premise re: chinese bubble burst(just don't have a handle on when-any ideas FOTO?) as well as the consumer not buying but saving his/her scarce $ ( I liken the consumer to the ANTS of previous posts).

AS for techs:
Daily: down TL ( 25 May- 7 June)was touched (0460) also the 200 ema.
I have buystop order @ 0470.

Heh Scarecru,

In response. If the notion that deflation will continue to play out in the markets for a considerable time is for real, then we need supporting evidence.
Yesterdays Cad retail sales was a start. Also the high levels of oil inventory suggest weaker demand from consumers.

If consumers remain in retrenchment then US retail sales due shortly will be the nail in the coffin, if they are weak. The market is relatively quiet with positioning for commodity weakness going on as I post.

A permenantly retrenched consumer unable to spend from weak job prospects and lack of ability to assume more debt is the ringing Bell for Asia.

As I believe it is an almost impossible task to watch markets all the day for the perfect entry and time a big move, I play field position. This means being willing to ride all the intraday volatility and wait for what may turn into a decent win. Thus my using weekly charts primarily with entry based upon daily commonly percieved formations.

I believe in simplicity, if I am the only one to see something then where is the market to make the idea come to pass? So looking for the areas where markets have overextended and going the other way with a sound idea behind the trade is where the hunt is.

Keep an eye on the GBP/CAD as it has considerable upside potential if the new UK government is successful using free market ideas in turning around the economy. Could be a big winner including pyramiding into position for the long haul.

addendum: GBP/CAD was last down at these levels in 1985. The resultant move was a strong V shape then. May wish to check the monthlies/30 year for your own interpretation.

GBP/CAD technicaly with todays close has completed two different reversal formations.
On the daily we have an old standard 1,2,3 with the close above the #2 high

With a bit of a stretch may even call it a completed inverse head and shoulders, also on the daily

The weekly RSI has turned up from its lows and the daily RSI has broken above prior resistance. I use chart formations on RSI for whatever it is worth.

On the 8 Hr.
Yesterday we had a bullish break above a 2 std. deviation bollinger band based upon a composite EMA that is followed. This breakout was sustained today.

If the weekly sustains through tommorrow you have bullish engulfing candle.
The short term moving averages are all reading bullish.

You also have a long downtrend with a whole lot of short positions that still have to be closed if this move continues.

All in all rather be long this pair especialy with continued weakness in equities. Since that fits the scenario.

If you wish to be the devils advocate and see something for continued shorting, please do.

FOTO: thanks for your always appreciated imput.

As you already have observed; I am quite obtuse wrt fundamentals & global economics. However; your technical interpretation resulted in a glimmer of understanding re: this pair & this caused me to review U/C from
a different position. Thank you

Still attempting to demystify the deflation/inflation conumdrum & how PA is affected by each cycle.

On D tf: down TL ( June 7-24) shows Resistance @ 0462.

$ closed @ 59 ema (o347) support.

MacD < H2O but going up.

I shall watch both points for possible trade.

Teks still suggest down ( but G8 & G20 this weekend as well as NFP next week)

FOTO: looking @ M charts 0n Y X's - to myself appears as risk-aversion.

We shall see what G8-G20 does on Monday.

Have yourself a wonderful weekend.

D chart: down TL still R @ 0439 STO is going down & RSI is 50
$ is @ 50 ema support. MacD <H2O

4H: 50 is going up & STO is O/S RSI is 52 I'm buying(but 30 pip TP)

H chart: 0390 is 50% 0402 is 62% fib (still below the D down TL so this week I shall still be biased bear on the pair)

Heh Duce,
Well you have me completely baffled. What does your chart tell you????
Thanks

Duce, got your note and replied but server kicked it back.
Thanks for the update, always wished I had the intellectual capacity to understand these things. Will give it some thought.
God Bless