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  • #861
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:09am Jun 23, 2010 3:09am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Sorry its just always rubbed me the wrong way - people posting account statements demo or whatever who cares
Here's my statement - 'I make a profit', there you go, now you cansider yourself even more rubbed up
  • #862
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:10am Jun 23, 2010 3:10am
why are you in here ruining skfxs thread he started a thread to provoke ppl into thinking for themselves. obviously the ppl who cant think for themselves are the ones in here dribbling all kinds of manure. nice way to ruin a good thread

regards damien
i pull the trigger when others are fearful---me
  • #863
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:12am Jun 23, 2010 3:12am
Quoting woo
Yep, i want lots of medals and cookies.
It's just if it was part of the FF culture here to discuss $$ and how much we are all making then a very skewed portrayal of this world will be shownt o unfortunate newcomers..

How many losers are going to post their trades? how many winners are going to post their trades... You know?> I just don't think it's helpful or needed - unless of course you simply want cookies and medals - in which case all you prob need is a hug!
Time hides Nothing
  • #864
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:13am Jun 23, 2010 3:13am
Quoting damosdmf
why are you in here ruining skfxs thread he started a thread to provoke ppl into thinking for themselves. obviously the ppl who cant think for themselves are the ones in here dribbling all kinds of manure. nice way to ruin a good thread

regards damien
Well i agree on the part that the quality of the thread is down, the last 2 pages. So for the threads sakes, im off to other threads, until ive something to contribute to

But then, im a weird man and have run ammock on many forums around the world with my crazy mind and behaviour.
  • #865
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:22am Jun 23, 2010 3:22am
Quoting woo

And by the way, i withdraw my offer.
Which one, they seem to change like the weather, I'm assuming your trading and equity curve aren't as volatile and unpredictable?
  • #866
  • Edited 11:24pm Jun 23, 2010 11:12pm | Edited 11:24pm
Quoting hanover
That's for sure!

Agreed, there are many possible ways to approach analysis, both KISS and otherwise. Sorry if I gave the impression that correlated markets was the only one. It's just that for me currently, it's becoming another piece of the puzzle that's gaining in significance.

I also agree that complex methods can become difficult to implement, in the sense that one can easily see several reasons to buy, and several reasons to sell, at the same time. I've been there many times, LOL. That's why, at least for me, it's important to have a fairly...
Heya mate. Nah, you didn't come across as "this is THE ONLY way". Just bringing up another point in the discussion here.

I am quite averse towards complex quant type approaches, possibly because I'm not numerically (like multivariate, stochastic math) inclined.

One of the major frameworks I use is risk appetite/aversion. Keeps me in touch with the news/world as well and from there I use PA to swing trade. On a day to day basis I use "order flow" for those quick but high probability setups.

Who knows what "order flow" is supposed to really be anyway. It seems like there's 1 or more variation per person here. But hey! As long as it works aye? The principle behind it is still the same - getting in ahead of the liquidity flush down.

It's just another tool in the box to me. A useful really tool! and I'm thankful to SKFX for opening my eyes to it, but still it's a tool. Can't run the risk of the dude having only a hammer and playing that game only now can we?

It's like life. No one knows everything and there's always something more to learn. That's why it's an infinitely fascinating game.

I know woo comes across as a crass egotistical s.o.b. but hey. He's got some points which are decent, I know what's he's driving at. Just a tad bit of "bad marketing" tt's all. It makes me think of the importance of perception. We "here" on this small thread are a mini form of "the market", a group of people with access to information, and drawing our views/conclusions. We've all got our flaws. From here we can also understand why the market can sell off SHARPLY --> a whole buncha people having similar conclusions --> new info that makes everyone go "OH F***!!! COVER!" So we have things like the May10 flash crash and to a larger magnitude 1987. I've studied those situations and asked myself "how could I have saw that coming?" and this time around for the flash crash, thankfully, we saw it coming. Not the magnitude - that one who knows - but there were sufficient red flags that the market used to tip its hand.

Gotta love this game!

Appreciate your thought-filled insightful posts Hanover. There've been many.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #867
  • Jun 23, 2010 11:59pm Jun 23, 2010 11:59pm
Quoting Cyrus

Who knows what "order flow" is supposed to really be anyway. It seems like there's 1 or more variation per person here. But hey! As long as it works aye? The principle behind it is still the same - getting in ahead of the liquidity flush down.


To trade orderflow, you make your trading decisions based off of orders you see in the market, not price charts. It's much easier than you can imagine. What this does is, in a way, puts you in a virtual pit. You can begin to 'hear' what the other traders are doing. We are never parasitic as I once thought, but we are coat-tailers. Informed traders have very predictable trading behavior and their trades make prices more informative by pusing price back to value. Therefore, when we trade with them we push price back to value with them.

What do you think are the top 3 characteristics of informed traders? (Questions for you to answer personally) Once you have your criteria, go hunting .

Since I've stumbled accidentally upon what OF is, after stumbling in the dark for close to a year, I have a new perspective on TA. It's no different from what I've said in my Quest for Wisdom thread. Basically though, TA is a thought process that happens outside of a market. It provides one with enough data points to begin drawing fallacious conclusions about causation in price movement (illusionary thinking/erroneous pathology). I personally applaud those who can successfully employ statistical data mining techniques, but what they are basing their decisions on does not have much to do with trading, but with hidden patterns in all the numbers. Nothing wrong with that of course, but I like to get to the heart of the matter.

What separates TA and OF/Informed traders is the trading order. On the trading spectrum, the informed trade first, OF/algos trade after them, common TA traders then trade, and then the uninformed. Ironically the most informed trade with the least informed most of the time, while the semi informed traders (TA traders), trade somewhere in the middle. This is why the ignorant usually lose everything quickly, while the TA crowd endures mostly horizontal or worse equity curves.

Sorry, I know you were replying to Hanover, but we do need a definition around here for OF.
  • #868
  • Jun 24, 2010 12:12am Jun 24, 2010 12:12am
Quoting Scotty B

....but we do need a definition around here for OF.
I couldn't agree more, but have we seen anything definitive?

My analysis probably falls within the 'TA crowd' but my equity curve is hardly 'horizontal or worse' as suggested!
  • #869
  • Jun 24, 2010 1:54am Jun 24, 2010 1:54am
Quoting Scotty B
To trade orderflow, you make your trading decisions based off of orders you see in the market, not price charts....
Scotty,

While I know you probably know a lot more about this than I do, I would argue that your definition is too narrow, and probably specific to your particular brand or method. I believe the basic idea of OF trading is simply anticipating order flow. Whether you can actually see the orders or have some other way of knowing where they are (or where they'll come in) doesn't matter, though it may affect your specific strategy. OF trading isn't value trading, though value trading may be OF trading. I don't believe identifying informed traders' behaviour is necessary either - it may be depending on your method, and your time frame, and what plays you're going for... In the same way that two people can take opposite positions from the same price and both profit, OF trading is a very simple and general concept (a mindset as DS put it) that can be used in many different ways.

All imho of course.
  • #870
  • Jun 24, 2010 4:48am Jun 24, 2010 4:48am
Quoting eurotrash
Scotty,

While I know you probably know a lot more about this than I do, I would argue that your definition is too narrow, and probably specific to your particular brand or method. I believe the basic idea of OF trading is simply anticipating order flow. Whether you can actually see the orders or have some other way of knowing where they are (or where they'll come in) doesn't matter, though it may affect your specific strategy. OF trading isn't value trading, though value trading may be OF trading. I don't believe identifying informed traders' behaviour...
Agree
Time hides Nothing
  • #871
  • Jun 24, 2010 5:18am Jun 24, 2010 5:18am
As every major player tries to hide his intentions I can't see how one can profit from "knowing the orders" without some inside information, like knowing that Deutsche Bank intents to sell X billion of currency Y till next Friday.
What Scotty wants is to profit by front-running but somehow he doesn't realise he is at the bottom of the food chain and the information that he needs (aka who, when and how much) will be rather used by those who are a few steps above him.
  • #872
  • Jun 24, 2010 5:56am Jun 24, 2010 5:56am
Quoting Sauron
As every major player tries to hide his intentions I can't see how one can profit from "knowing the orders" without some inside information, like knowing that Deutsche Bank intents to sell X billion of currency Y till next Friday.
What Scotty wants is to profit by front-running but somehow he doesn't realise he is at the bottom of the food chain and the information that he needs (aka who, when and how much) will be rather used by those who are a few steps above him.
No no, make no mistake about it. I am not a front runner. I don't trade until I see the big players enter the market. I am therefore coat tailing and trading after them. I trade in their wake, if you will. I am not at the bottom of the food chain either, but I am by default at least 2nd in line in the spectrum of informed traders.

I didn't make my previous posts for any other reason than to say that OFA, even if it's just my definition, has to involve working with orders. If not, then everyone could say they trade orderflow. That might be true in a general sense, but when I use to trade with fibs I was basing my trade decisions off fibs. Yes, orderflow was the mechanism that moved price, but I made my trade decision with a fib, which has nothing to do with what is really going on behind the scenes of the market.
  • #873
  • Jun 24, 2010 6:06am Jun 24, 2010 6:06am
Quoting Sauron
As every major player tries to hide his intentions I can't see how one can profit from "knowing the orders" without some inside information, like knowing that Deutsche Bank intents to sell X billion of currency Y till next Friday.
What Scotty wants is to profit by front-running but somehow he doesn't realise he is at the bottom of the food chain and the information that he needs (aka who, when and how much) will be rather used by those who are a few steps above him.

Hi Sauron.

You mean inside information such as this.



Regards,

BabeFX.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Follow your leader.doc   29 KB | 746 downloads
  • #874
  • Jun 24, 2010 6:32am Jun 24, 2010 6:32am
That's inside disinformation.
  • #875
  • Jun 24, 2010 6:50am Jun 24, 2010 6:50am
Quoting Scotty B

...when I use to trade with fibs I was basing my trade decisions off fibs. Yes, orderflow was the mechanism that moved price, but I made my trade decision with a fib, which has nothing to do with what is really going on behind the scenes of the market.

Instead of waiting to see big players enter the market, and presumably price already moving before you see them, wouldn't it be better to try and pre-empt where and why they might enter? Isn't that what is really going on behind the scenes of the market?

I still don't understand how you guys can be 'working with orders' when none of these orders, and more importantly their size, are visible.
  • #876
  • Jun 24, 2010 7:09am Jun 24, 2010 7:09am
What does knowing who's behind the orderflow do for you?Do it give you DEST.Direction,Entry,Stoploss,Target.DEST is your moment of truth the final episode.We are all passengers on the train,not the train driver,we enter and exit at different station.We cannot move the market,and who cares who or what move the market so long as we identify the direction and hop along.Prices never lie,at times it may fool us but it never lie.Hop on the train in the direction it is going and not the direction you want it to go and all will be OK.
  • #877
  • Jun 24, 2010 7:43am Jun 24, 2010 7:43am
Quoting Lessformore
We are all passengers on the train,not the train driver
Not a good analogy.

Let's say a man starts setting up a pizza stand on a street corner. A passer by asks the man what he's doing, and the man says he's giving away fresh, hot pizza for free. The passer by and others that heard the conversation line up and get a slice. A group of businessmen walk out of a building, see the short line and queue up. One rings his coworkers and tells them to come outside for a free slice. More and more people see the queue, smell the pizza, see people eating the pizzas, and hear that it is free. The queue grows longer and longer. Over time, the pizza becomes less fresh, and at some point the man runs out of pizzas, leaving a long line of empty stomachs. Who would you rather be?

If this analogy isn't appropriate, excuse me because I feel like a pizza .
  • #878
  • Jun 24, 2010 7:54am Jun 24, 2010 7:54am
Quoting Scotty B
To trade orderflow, you make your trading decisions based off of orders you see in the market, not price charts. It's much easier than you can imagine. What this does is, in a way, puts you in a virtual pit. You can begin to 'hear' what the other traders are doing. We are never parasitic as I once thought, but we are coat-tailers. Informed traders have very predictable trading behavior and their trades make prices more informative by pusing price back to value. Therefore, when we trade with them we push price back to value with them.

What do you think are the top 3 characteristics of informed traders? (Questions for you to answer personally) Once you have your criteria, go hunting .

Since I've stumbled accidentally upon what OF is, after stumbling in the dark for close to a year, I have a new perspective on TA. It's no different from what I've said in my Quest for Wisdom thread. Basically though, TA is a thought process that happens outside of a market. It provides one with enough data points to begin drawing fallacious conclusions about causation in price movement (illusionary thinking/erroneous pathology). I personally applaud those who can successfully employ statistical data mining techniques, but what they are basing their decisions on does not have much to do with trading, but with hidden patterns in all the numbers. Nothing wrong with that of course, but I like to get to the heart of the matter.

What separates TA and OF/Informed traders is the trading order. On the trading spectrum, the informed trade first, OF/algos trade after them, common TA traders then trade, and then the uninformed. Ironically the most informed trade with the least informed most of the time, while the semi informed traders (TA traders), trade somewhere in the middle. This is why the ignorant usually lose everything quickly, while the TA crowd endures mostly horizontal or worse equity curves.

Sorry, I know you were replying to Hanover, but we do need a definition around here for OF.
heya Scotty! Thanks for the definition. Finally we have one.

What you wrote here is some food for thought. By this definition, I am by no means an orderflow trader then. I prob am a step of 2 after the OF boys. I guess staring @ the screen long enough and thinking, and with the OF concept in mind, I kinda "felt" when/where orders would stack and when it was being consumed and go with that abit.

At some places I can anticipate with high probability where order will likely begin coming in, perhaps only those times I am 'with' the OF boys. (and this still needs ALOOOTtaaa polishing...heh)

Clarification needed please:
- By "orders you see in the market" do you mean the market depth?
- Also, if you are so inclined, elaborate more on "virtual pit" please. I know what you're trying to say, but am clearly lacking in the perspective with regard to how this concept can be applied to the run of the mill MT4 platforms.

I'd like to add though, that what we're talking about here on this thread in general is the short term order flow type concept. There's the "major flow" aka daily / fundamental trend as well and it is possible to make a pretty good living just working TA in the direction of fundamental/economic trend. But let's not open up that box here. Different topic altogether.

This thread's getting pretty thought provoking. Glad to see it alive again after so long. =)

Appreciate your detailed thoughts Scotty. Deliberative ruminations are just RARE.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #879
  • Jun 24, 2010 7:57am Jun 24, 2010 7:57am
Trains, pizzas, people who feel like pizzas, big players, order flow boys......what the.......

Why is it that no-one in this thread can give a straightforward answer to a straightforward question, lol
  • #880
  • Jun 24, 2010 8:01am Jun 24, 2010 8:01am
Some guys only use Level II without charts and make money by reading order flow.

But the real interesting thing is this: where are the dynamic levels on which institutions execute orders over the hole day depending on the time-frame.

Institutions don't have magic tools.
They constantly analyze volume and volatility to relatively sell high and buy low (for the most time, during extrem volatile market conditions it's a bit different).
That is why algos come into play.

If you can monitor it (it is possible), you can be one of the first before the move starts.
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