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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #16,961
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:35pm Jun 23, 2010 8:35pm
today looked like key reversal yea.
filled first scout at 2246...now im averaged at 305, scaling out.

my skews may get high today, hourly and daily direction looks promising. will be looking to buy cheaper on the dips.
  • #16,962
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:40pm Jun 23, 2010 8:40pm
This is my understanding (presented in graphical form) of what fti posted at:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1423

If I am wrong, could fti or anyone pls point it out to me. Thanks.

Quoting incrediblefx
I think, the confusing part is how to interpret your sequence into chart.
I've attached the scenario you put up and the chart I draw.
I still do not know where to profit taking happens.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1423
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fti.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #16,963
  • Edited 9:34pm Jun 23, 2010 9:21pm | Edited 9:34pm
Quoting imjscn
I am nearly a vegetarian since became a TAF follower, --- no time cooking seriously
Well at least you are better than me eat veges. I took Mc.donald & KFC everyday with one can of coke until I've got dibetes Well that was long before trading.
Now still takeaway but no junk food and sometime rabbit food

Cheers,
  • #16,964
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:29pm Jun 23, 2010 9:29pm
Quoting jest1081
today looked like key reversal yea.
filled first scout at 2246...now im averaged at 305, scaling out.

my skews may get high today, hourly and daily direction looks promising. will be looking to buy cheaper on the dips.
i m still not been able to understand cable.... :
  • #16,965
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:32pm Jun 23, 2010 9:32pm
Quoting MyTbo
Hi, guys.

During the weekend I sat on one table with a guy that has been trading stocks for several years. He asked me how was my trading going and I said I can make 1-3% a day. His response was that according to specialist and analysts this is huge profit and I must be using reckless money management. Then he asked me if I used stop loss and I said no. His face was ... I wish I had taken a picture of his face

This is an interesting interview, I like the style of the NIA guys.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzHTD...layer_embedded#!...
Hi MyTbo,

You are very quick learner Congratulation. I have to learn from you too
Are you trading full time now?

Cheers,
  • #16,966
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:58pm Jun 23, 2010 9:58pm
Quoting hcong168
This is my understanding (presented in graphical form) of what fti posted at:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1423

If I am wrong, could fti or anyone pls point it out to me. Thanks.
This is a nice chart.
I gone through the posting and I would say it's graphically correct (based on my current level of understanding)
  • #16,967
  • Edited 10:44pm Jun 23, 2010 10:31pm | Edited 10:44pm
hello incrediblefx,

basically thats just a hyphothetical scenario based on general understanding of patterns, movements and certain laws, but price does not always take these kinds of forms, infact they are always different, just like a human thumbprint, they may look similar but all of us are different somehow, so dont make what is given into a rule coz it can make your approach and views rigid and then you'll become similar to the pigs of okefenokee swamp

its hard to put skews into proper perspective coz trades done should be based on how market is acting may it be selling/buying/loss taking/profit taking etc...

try to trade on demo.
Aim to consistently follow price movements. (if you can do that, i can vouch that you can trade well even without charts, all you need is to be able to feel the flow of price changes thru quotes)
Aim to know where you go wrong or if your skews are a tad bit to aggresive for you capital requirements.
Aim to see how much loss you are able to withstand before you raise the white flag etc...
target of the practise is to know, when you are trading with/against the flow and if you are, how will you plan your rescues/flip/skew agression.
its a niche that you need to attain only personal to you. this is reason why fti never shared his blotter anymore, coz people will put it into perspective and create rules on how one should approach the market according to fti's trades.

putting it all into forms will only invite rigidity but as a base for learning, i guess whatever discussed will definitely suffice. cheers.
  • #16,968
  • Jun 24, 2010 12:16am Jun 24, 2010 12:16am
Quoting GEfx
Never be afraid to take profits, but try to never be afraid, too. It takes time to get comfortable in watching PA develop. I watch for the pulses as they develop, then expect a squaring process to occur, and so on. I think there are two kinds of traders here: those who take profit after each pulse and just before the squaring process; and those who let trades ride, scaling in new and larger trades after each squaring is done (or at least close to that price -- lol). Either way is good as long as you know to take/protect profit. Either way,...
"I watch for the pulses" - thanks GEfx. That statement resonates with me.

I am already trading with very small amounts so its always safety first with me. "the squaring process" - I take it you are referring to the inevitable reaction in price and time to the impulsive price action?

Getting a lot out of the discussion with My Tbo and Fana as well although I'm a little unsure of the Gann squaring that was talked about.

Anyway thanks to you all!
With wisdom comes humility. With humility comes wisdom!
  • #16,969
  • Edited 2:50am Jun 24, 2010 12:56am | Edited 2:50am
Quoting hcong168
This is my understanding (presented in graphical form) of what fti posted at:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1423

If I am wrong, could fti or anyone pls point it out to me. Thanks.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1847483&postcount=1462
Above link is for post #1462, with fti own sketch, bold red is my own.

Now we are all going to get into trouble for being rigid

edit: "important components of the decision process is absent" - sigma (rate of change) and vega (volatility) have to be experienced real time.
capitalization, book and skill are different from person to person
PA is different each time (variance)

Rgs,
Baifu



@ MickD,
Your reading of the MM is mostly right, for the example I posted.
The 16 lots attack was a decision , derived that the momentum of the swing towards the support. There is no logical mathematics for that, except that it was a decision for a quick and final attack sequence . (note that the my net available exposure can be only 20 for this example. 4 was used and 16 is the residue unused). Notice that the high exposure was not tolerant of stay in the market, and is used to forage for "foreign capital" to sustain the actual 4 as ammo to ride a little, but risklessly.
This exercise was a favourable run, but there will be instances where all 20 can be at a loss. That would present a rescue scenerio that requires that the trader will exceed his 10% capital at risk. It can escalate to 30 % very quickly dependent on the volatility. So in essence , a rescue of higher order is required. This is difficult for the undercapitalised or unprepared.

For not so experienced traders, they have to be careful to attempt it this way. It is aggressive, but is how professionals operate. The lesson here for the smaller traders, is that, if they did their sums, most traders are actually in effects overtrading, and the leverage facilities accorded them, actually, helping to accelerate their ruin.

It is no rocket science to model this MO. There is no wrongs or rights. And no one can construct a model for another trader. At the end of the day , the trader have to find his own niche and equilibrium.

This is the reasons for my hesitation to bring all except the concepts on the table. That only those who can understand and build their own models will undertake the risk.

Nevertheless, as requested I repost the example again for examination. BUT remember THIS IS ONLY ONE SCENERIO. It is not the holy grail to trading. Moreover this was done from hindsight , therefore important components of the decision process is absent.

regards
Attached Imageshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1202837417
  • #16,970
  • Edited 3:49am Jun 24, 2010 3:04am | Edited 3:49am
eyes open e/u 2284 area, time for truth is it back down or up ?
au 8709-13 will be watchin 8662 and responses
uj 8945 and responses
g/u 42-35
  • #16,971
  • Jun 24, 2010 3:22am Jun 24, 2010 3:22am
Quoting pete.alfa
Hi MyTbo,

You are very quick learner Congratulation. I have to learn from you too
Are you trading full time now?

Cheers,
Thank you for your kind words.
As I said in a previous post the good understanding of market structure has changed my trading style to a profitable one. In the post I mentioned what helped me, you can try it to see if it works for you.

I'm trading as much as I can, since I'm a student. I get to trade 3-4 days a week depending on university and family duties. However, to me trading full time means trading for a living, from that point of view I'm not trading full time(account is still small). If my good results continue, maybe after I finish my Masters degree I won't have to search for a job in the engineering field . Until then I'll study to get a scholarship for next semester and trade as much as possible.

Regards, MyTbo
  • #16,972
  • Jun 24, 2010 3:46am Jun 24, 2010 3:46am
kingdoms not moving in sync, au included
  • #16,973
  • Jun 24, 2010 6:46am Jun 24, 2010 6:46am
Troop movements
sell the continent
buy the far aways.
Don't take the risk, is very fluid.
  • #16,974
  • Jun 24, 2010 8:12am Jun 24, 2010 8:12am
Quoting jest1081
hello incrediblefx,

basically thats just a hyphothetical scenario based on general understanding of patterns, movements and certain laws, but price does not always take these kinds of forms, infact they are always different, just like a human thumbprint, they may look similar but all of us are different somehow, so dont make what is given into a rule coz it can make your approach and views rigid and then you'll become similar to the pigs of okefenokee swamp

its hard to put skews into proper perspective coz trades done should be based on...
Hi jest1081,

thanks for the input. In fact I've been trading stocks with only price action but without the right MM.
Fti insight bring me a new perspective to my trading experience. Now I'm just reading and reading and the feeling of market action shouldn't be much of the problem.
My real problem is more on psychology. I never do any rescue in my stock trading. How can I rescue a losing position without affecting my judgement. This is something I must pull through.
As for attack I'm aggressive enough
  • #16,975
  • Jun 24, 2010 9:34am Jun 24, 2010 9:34am
[quote=incrediblefx;3826922]Hi jest1081,

thanks for the input. In fact I've been trading stocks with only price action but without the right MM.
Fti insight bring me a new perspective to my trading experience. Now I'm just reading and reading and the feeling of market action shouldn't be much of the problem.
My real problem is more on psychology. I never do any rescue in my stock trading. How can I rescue a losing position without affecting my judgement. This is something I must pull through.
As for attack I'm aggressive enough

Are you sure?

If you will have your own conception how it works, you will hardly obtain the real picture... regards
  • #16,976
  • Jun 24, 2010 9:37am Jun 24, 2010 9:37am
wont be convinced were heading north till we get on the other side of 2334.
other task at hand, most off table.
hedged
2436
2215
  • #16,977
  • Jun 24, 2010 10:23am Jun 24, 2010 10:23am
[quote=Fana;3827137]
Quoting incrediblefx
Hi jest1081,

thanks for the input. In fact I've been trading stocks with only price...
haha
aggressiveness is quite relative.
I trade fulltime and have direct wire to sgx
  • #16,978
  • Jun 24, 2010 10:58am Jun 24, 2010 10:58am
[quote=incrediblefx;3827255]
Quoting Fana
haha
aggressiveness is quite relative.
I trade fulltime and have direct wire to sgx
My apologize. I didnt know, that you are much experienced than me. Fana
  • #16,979
  • Jun 24, 2010 11:03am Jun 24, 2010 11:03am
[quote=Fana;3827358]
Quoting incrediblefx

My apologize. I didnt know, that you are much experienced than me. Fana
but i'm a newbie in forex
  • #16,980
  • Jun 24, 2010 11:36am Jun 24, 2010 11:36am
Wow. I have nearly zero volumes on thet gap on EUR /USD... What is it? Smells like manipulation...
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