vsa with Malcolm

Follow up.

Second possible entry long at break of NS high.

volume is decreasing cos only the US session is open and as we get towards the news, more and more people pull out to see what is happening....so it does not mean anything..

i, for one, think we should be going up on GU.....

I think this is a great indication that price going to test the high at lower volume. we will see

you told no supply. yes right.

but i have looked at from different angle. i have looked at last 10-15 bars,

price steadily incrrease whereas, volume decreasing. up bar with low volume. so, it seems to me no demand bar if you think those 10-15 bars signle bar with corresponding volumes...

this makes me confused mate...

note; i have also looked at 1 hour chart, and compred todays volume rel to previos days. todays volumes aberage i bit higher than 2 3 days... up day, more volume... lets see..

A ND is an up bar, the one I indicated is a down bar - NS.

There is strength in the background as pointed out on the chart.

Not sure where you're coming from Bruce.

You think that the SM is selling at higher prices???? Why would they do this?

And that the herd has the power to raise prices into the SM selling????


We know that SM accounts for approx 85% of the volume. If they are bringing supply to the market, prices WILL fall.

Where has Bruces post gone.....or am I going mad!

aweosme set up ..... good charting and explanation. I hope you got the trade

I was on ES most of day , awesome stopping volume at support 1081 for move back to test 1090 ( close yesterday)

that is a classic test .... in an uptrend a sign that the trend will continue

no no your are right. i have deleted after reading it
mate sorry for the confusion.

Didn't like the GU today, but EU was nice to me...


Regards

good to hear ....

I took sell aj out to early
sell gu out to early

gave up on fx

traded es instead lol

LOL

No problem, at least I know I'm not going mad

forgive my ignorance, is there a way to trade /ES on a small account? my broker requires $5625 margin per contract.

try GFT or any fractional CFD broker..

the hting with es it is like tradiong 1 standard in fx these days. If you wrong you can lose fast.

Infinity offers better margin , when i had 10 k with those guys way back i could trade 20 contracts es ( day trade only..need 3600 per contract for overnight hold). I only ever traded one or 2 back then

Djarum go to mirus futures, I think ES 500 to 1000 margin for Daytrades.

I took two losses today too on GU so I moved to EU which was played by the book...MTM book.

High volume - standby, low volume - enter.

That's all we need to know.


Regards


P.S. Did you hear there's an update coming for esignal plug in? There will be some arrows showing strength or weaknes in other tf. Something like the scanner.

GU and GJ.

I'm posting these to show people how many factors need to line up to make a up a successful trade. I made a couple of mistakes in each of these.

First GU: this was actually the better of the two setups

what I did right - it was a valid VSA setup with weakness in the background and an upthrust. I waited for the hull MA to turn red indicating a short was possible

what I did wrong -

- I took this one even though it was trading counter trend to the higher timeframe - did shorten my profit target as a result, but it's always a bit riskier
I played it aggressive and didn't wait for a confirmation no demand bar - because I was worried I'd missed the main down move - thus I entered a little bit late - which led to the next mistake - which was my stop loss placement - I didn't place it above the peak of the upthrust (and in fact I tightened it a little - in fact just enough to get stopped out - 'aint that always the way) - because with my entry point that made the risk reward ratio a bit steep for my liking. So I placed it between the peak of the Hull MA and the upthrust - too low as it turned out.
third mistake was my take profit target - too ambitious for a counter trend trade, and it should have been between yesterdays high and R1 to be safer. If I hadn't been stopped out before the down move I would have come up short by around 10 pips before the trade turned against me.

Second GJ:

what I did right - was a valid VSA setup with weakness in the background and a couple of upthrusts indicating sellers coming in. the background weakness was a little less than ideal because there hadn't been a serious up trend before the hidden selling. went in when the hull MA turned red indicator a trend change and possible short

what I did wrong - got in a little late so I set a more a aggressive stop, so it wasn't above the peak of the upthrust, and tightened my stop after the trade went a little in my favour. This is what made it a failed trade, as it ultimately went in my direction. Didn't wait for a no demand bar to confirm, (third bar after the upthrust) so my stop/entry risk reward wasn't as good as it could have been and this is what ultimately screwed the trade. Think it was a countertrend trade as well. Profit target was conservative 134.209 - and I would have hit this easily if I hadn't tightened my stop.

Moral #1 - even if you are reading VSA well, you can still stuff up the trade
Moral #2 - don't fiddle with your stops - place them above upthrust (below stopping volume or shakeout) whenever possible. If you're trading aggressively and entering on confirmation from hull ma without a no demand bar, your risk reward ration maybe worse. Going in after the no demand (up bar with lowish volume after the upthrust) - which is the more conservative strategy helps you get a better risk reward ratio on your entry to stop, so you risk less for the move, which is why it's the recommended conservative strategy.

This is my first time posting but I'm a long time lurker. Malcolm I think it's great that you have your own thread now. Your analysis has always been very helpful and I look forward to your further insights. Please keep up the good work.