Crude oil intraday

Hi Trader!

Thanks for a look at that i got your email i will do that


i got some setups on aud/usd but dont think they will happen tonight. Got according price action on 1h piercing line and markets to slow right now. So will wait for tommorow and make some new setups.

Best scenario for this would be drop to second retangle area because the range of the shs and best confluence. Off course with the right price action.

http://i49.tinypic.com/sv6pu1.jpg

Anyone feel like shorting crude oil today? With the recent rise of the dollar, I can't help but feel that crude oil will be in for a big drop. Correct me if I'm wrong though but I believe that if OPEC won't slash production, oil will be in for a slump.

Hello oil traders,

does anyone of you know of a public source where to obtain data on the average volatility by hour of the week for any oil futures contract or oil-related ETF?


Regards,

Wolfgang

I'm seeing very confluenced resistance at 73.00 range for crude... On several timeframes.

The 200 SMA (blue moving average) looks very valid as S/R on the 1hr timeframe. Is that true?

Hi dan Good spot i posted some charts to give you an overall view my only concern is that whe have the inv report today.

Normally i would say there would be more demand with that whole oil thing going on, but the chart is telling me a bit different. That whe go down at that $73 level it is certainly a good area of interest.

1 Thing the inv report is always really vollatille price can go up and down manny pips so watch it with taking positions before the report. Better wait 15 min after the report, but it is you own chose.

Also the cot i added to give you a view.

http://i47.tinypic.com/2j5v1u.png

http://i45.tinypic.com/b96nnq.png

http://i48.tinypic.com/qrf7zk.png

Hi Wolfgang,

I dont know i use volume but if you can find some bron let us know thanks

June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Higher crude prices and rising imports may be in store for the U.S. after the government slashed its forecasts for Gulf of Mexico output by 6.1 percent following the BP Plc spill, the worst in the nation’s history.
The production cut will average 26,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter and 70,000 barrels a day next year, the Energy Department said yesterday in Washington in its monthly Short- Term Energy Outlook. The reduction, amounting to 0.5 percent of the oil processed in the U.S., follows President Barack Obama’s decision to put a moratorium on deep-water drilling in the Gulf.
The decline would coincide with an economic rebound that will boost fuel demand to the highest level since 2008, when New York oil futures jumped to a record $147.27 a barrel, the report showed. The U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 3 percent in the first quarter, according to the Commerce Department.
“Unless consumption is reduced, U.S. prices will be higher because we’ll have to bid for oil from other parts of the world,” said Edward Morse, the New York-based head of commodities research at Credit Suisse Group AG, Switzerland’s second-largest bank. The moratorium will have its biggest impact on long-term prices, he said.
Crude traded in London will rise to $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter, up 28 percent from 2009’s average, Morse said.
Benchmark U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil will average $78.75 a barrel this year, 28 percent higher than the 2009 average of $61.66, according to the Energy Department outlook.
Deepwater Halt
The Obama administration ordered the halt in deep-water drilling and extended a ban on new permits after the oil spill caused by an April 20 fire aboard the BP-leased Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf.
The Energy Department lowered its 2010 forecast for Gulf production at federal leases to 1.69 million barrels a day from 1.8 million estimated a month ago, the report showed. The overall forecast for domestic production dropped by 2.2 percent to 5.39 million barrels a day.
Global oil consumption will grow 1.8 percent to 85.51 million barrels a day in 2010, the Energy Department forecast. It will increase another 1.9 percent in 2011 to 87.12 million.
“About 75 percent of the production in the Gulf of Mexico comes from waters deeper than 650 feet,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC, an energy consulting company in Houston. “Should we curtail that future drilling, we would see an impact on U.S. production. In an environment where total world demand is growing, this impacts supply.”
Gulf Output
Gulf output will average 1.55 million barrels a day next year, down from 1.76 million in the May forecast. Overall U.S. production next year will drop by an estimated 2 percent.
The U.S. imported an average of 9.06 million barrels of crude a day in 2009, according to the Energy Department. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries accounted for about 48 percent of that. Imports last year represented about 63 percent of U.S. crude demand.
“There’s going to be no quick return to the days of 2008 because we have so much more OPEC spare capacity,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “We got down to 1 million barrels a day of spare capacity then, and now we’re looking at almost five times more than that.”
Crude oil for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose for a second day, gaining 0.9 percent to $72.63 a barrel at 8:17 a.m. in London. Oil is 3.7 percent higher than a year ago.
‘Significant Impact’
“We’ll see a significant impact on 2010, 2011, 2012 and early 2013 production,” said Roger Read, an analyst in Houston at Natixis Bleichroeder, an investment and financial-services company. “The impact will start to be felt in prices 12, 24 and 36 months out.”
Oil for delivery in a year’s time is 10 percent higher than the front-month contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while futures for three years time are at a 16 percent premium.
Eleven workers were killed in the April blaze, which also sank the $365 million rig. London-based BP, the largest oil and natural-gas producer in federal waters of the Gulf, has spent more than $1 billion in unsuccessful attempts to reduce the flow of oil from the leak and clean up the crude.
The company faces criminal and regulatory probes and has lost 38 percent of its market value since the incident. BP said it collected 7,850 barrels of oil from the leaking well from midnight to noon today.
Drilling for oil and gas in the Gulf of Mexico dropped by 50 percent last week to the lowest level in 16 years, according to a report by Baker Hughes Inc.

Hi everybody,
i'm new here,
& i'm new trader in commodity,
i have done some trade in crude but it made me big loss.
kindly tell me how to understand exact trend.
i cant guess the trend,so when i'm bearish market go up it works viceversa.
can any body tell me how to study trend? give me some useful knowledge about trend, volume, buy /sell signal,chart, etc.
i heard about buy/sell signal software, is it really help in trading?? pls guide..
thnks in advance!

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--World oil demand is expected to rise 1.8% in the third quarter and in the full year 2010, U.S. government forecasters said Tuesday.

The Energy Information Administration, in its June short-term energy outlook, said demand will average 85.51 million barrels a day this year, up 1.5 million barrels a day, or 1.8%, from a year earlier. That's a slim 80,000 barrels a day below the May projection.

The EIA cut its crude oil price forecast in the third quarter by 6.8%, to $78 a barrel from the month-earlier forecast. Full-year prices are expected to average $78.75, down 4.2% below the earlier forecast, but one-third higher than the year-ago level of $61.66 a barrel, citing fears over economic growth. "Uncertainty about economic growth in China and in the euro zone has continued to weigh on oil markets, and declines in equity markets have led to fears that the economic recovery may not progress as fast as had been hoped," the EIA said.

Full-year demand from China, the second-biggest oil consumer after the U.S., is expected to rise 6.8%, or 560,000 barrels a day, to 8.78 million barrels a day.

In the third quarter, growth of 1.8% puts global oil use at 85.74 million barrels a day, down 100,000 barrels a day from the May forecast. The decline came in demand from countries outside the major industrialized nations which comprise the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. China's demand in the third quarter is expected to average 8.89 million barrels a day, up 4.8%, or 410,000 barrels a day, from a year ago.

For 2011, global oil use is expected to rise 1.9%, or 1.61 million barrels a day, to 87.12 million barrels a day, with all of the growth coming from outside the OECD.

China's oil demand is expected to rise by 540,000 barrels a day, or 6.2% in 2011, to 9.32 million barrels a day.

Commercial oil inventories in OECD nations are expected to remain at the upper end of historical range through 2011, but are declining as a result of higher demand and output restraint by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The EIA estimated end-May OECD stocks were sufficient to cover 62.2 days of demand, compared with a range of 55-63 days of cover in the past five years. End-September stocks are expected to reach 61 days, the peak of the past five years, while end-December stocks are expected to cover 58 days of demand, topping the high of 57 days in the past five years. At the end of 2011 stocks are expected to cover 56 days of demand, compared with a five-year range of 50-57 days of cover.

-By David Bird, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2141; [email protected]

Hello

There are many threads here on forexfactory about the trend i advice you trade demo for sometime and learn until you make consistent profits in demo.

Dont gamble and dont fight the trend (learn,Learn,learn)

Until you master oke, and develop your own trading strategy

Regards

http://finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=APC&ty=c&ta=0&p=w&s=l

Good Advice.

I am trading Oil - (WTI) not focusing on Brent Crude ATM on demo right now.
As a US resident unless futures I cannot trade CFDs like MT4 oil, which "sucks" but there is reasoning. Brokers offering CFDs for commodities like oil, have the potential to take money out of real exchanges such as NYMEX or CME.

In any case, I was just stopped out on Trailing stop,

My entry was

Long @ 71.77
Closed @ 75.16

.1 mini lot for $339.00

Trade entry was the 8th so 3+ days in trade.

I try to focus on H1 and below for Entry areas - H4 everything else - Daily and weekly for trending. Also based on pure PA and News. With standard MA's 200 100 50
Hope to contribute more here (if you don't mind oil demo account) and find a way to trade oil.

-- Looking at chart seems for WTI 76 may offer up some resistance - Have buys set for 72.00 area

I'll take the risk over and go short with Light Crude Oil Jul10 CFD at 75.87 just now.

hey guys
im short... what u thing? its bullish trend ok, but we need a retrace, right?

hello friends!
what u think about crude? for today..
will crude oil cross & trade above 77 USD ?? or slip below & close below 76 USD.

i think it may not cross 77 $ what u think?
should i go short with Stoploss of 77-77.5 USD ???

Hi guys, what do you think is coming for oil this week ?

Stabilization around 75-80$/Barrel ?

It looks like whe going higher with the demand and the ramblings in isreal might be next war close on the corner oil can rocket then. Could be possible so i expect oil higher then $80 this week might be going test the last highs again. See what the report for wensday would be if whe gonna come there

Big moves today... we saw 78.9$ this morning (Canada time) just a few minutes before the New York opening and we just saw 76.9$. We just traded in the 77-77.50 area, now around 77.50... still higher than the last friday close. We filled up the gap that we had in the price.

If we can close at 77.50-78 level... we going to test the 80 soon. 80-82 level is a good resistance before a new test to the new highs for the year at 85-87

Edit: 77.9 now... oil is bullish

April low 80.50 i keep a eye on

Why the Drilling Ruling Fails to Spark Crude
Matt Roma
Jun 23, 2010
Why the Drilling Ruling Fails to Spark Crude
Matt Roma

Crude oil futures prices didn’t leap higher after a federal judge in the Gulf recently ruled to overturn a six-month ban on new deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. That may seem puzzling to many investors. While there are certainly many more factors at play, the drilling ruling should cause downward, not upward, pressure on prices. Any new drilling wouldn’t produce any new oil for many years.

It’s important to know how the price of crude oil is determined in the futures markets. As a simplified example, futures parity is explained as follows: Future Price = Spot Price x (1 + Costs – Benefits).

In even simpler terms, where there are no carrying costs or benefits to holding the physical oil product, the difference between the crude oil futures price and the spot price of crude oil would be only explained by the cost of borrowing money to buy in the spot market, and hold until the expiration of the futures contract. The price of a futures contract should not take into account any expectations of future price movements.

In reality, another factor determining future oil prices is the cost of storage. While this cost can be quite high, if the spread between the spot price and the futures price (in contango) becomes too wide, than theoretically, there is an arbitrage opportunity.

For example, imagine a spot price for oil trading at $100/barrel, a one-yr futures contract trading at $115/barrel, interest rates of 1 percent, and a storage cost of $1 per month. A speculator could borrow $112 today, buy a barrel of oil, and enter a short one-year futures contract at $115. The $112 borrowed would pay for the barrel of oil and 12 months of storage costs. Then, one year from now, that individual would sell the barrel of oil at $115, repay the loan of $113.12 (112 x 1.01) and net a risk-free profit of $1.88. All while putting up no money.

To eliminate this type of opportunity, the spot price of oil would be bid up and the futures price would be sold down to levels where there is no longer an arbitrage opportunity.

When drilling is allowed to resume in the Gulf, the expectation of future oil supplies will increase, and the market price will immediately adjust to those future expectations. All else remaining equal (no change to demand expectations), higher expected supply will drive the price of oil futures down. (Higher supply in three years = three-year futures moving lower) If carrying costs and interest rates are equal, if the price of crude oil futures move lower, than the spot price must move lower as well to eliminate any possible arbitrage.

Since storage costs are going to fluctuate based on supply and demand, higher expected future supplies will result in lower storage space available, meaning higher storage costs. All else remaining equal, the increased storage costs would give a higher cost-to-carry for oil, thus driving the current price down to satisfy the spot/futures parity.

Therefore, any announcement that affects future supply or demand, even several years away, will cause price fluctuations in the spot price and near term futures as well.

I have only covered just a few of the concepts relating to options here. I encourage you to explore the topic further. Please feel free to call me with any questions you have about options, and the types of strategies that might be suitable for your unique situation.
Matt Roma is a Senior Market Strategist at Lind-Waldock, a commodity futures broker based in Chicago. He can be reached at 866-231-7811 or via email at [email protected].
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
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