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100% Price prediction Journal

  • #41
  • Edited 10:21am Jun 23, 2010 10:10am | Edited 10:21am
Quoting PIP Lover
All I can say is stick around and I'll prove im not guessing nor hoping.

As I mentioned, I can predict price targets but not time... If the price wishes to go against my prediction, so be it, more room to add and possibly even more pips gained (this is because even my first entry will profit).
Also you should know I use other methods as well, but have dedictaed this thread to prediction only. I do not post my other trades which are based on different methods.

Please someone help me in moving this thread to Trading Journals... Thank you

As a an Elliott Wave and Gann student, I don't see how you could possibly predict price without factoring in time, in even the slightest sense.

Hell, even if you were psychic you'd still be able to factor in time.

I am however, still interested in what you say you have worked out, so:

Are you going to share even the slightest details of your system, or are you just another person fishing for some commercial devotees?
Thank you Lux!
  • #42
  • Jun 23, 2010 10:57am Jun 23, 2010 10:57am
Quoting ScalpOrDie
As a an Elliott Wave and Gann student, I don't see how you could possibly predict price without factoring in time, in even the slightest sense.

Hell, even if you were psychic you'd still be able to factor in time.

I am however, still interested in what you say you have worked out, so:

Are you going to share even the slightest details of your system, or are you just another person fishing for some commercial devotees?

Hi Scalp,
As we all know ,the timing factor is unpredictable in forex. If it were, everyone would be rich. Price does however move through support/resistance zones . What is predictable, is that every support/resistance area will be tested at one point. There will be no open area which hasn't been tested and thus allowing traders to forever stay in a position.

Now, you may ask... what about monthly/weekly charts where a strong trend is present?- can't one sell/buy at the begining of the trend and hold forever? The answer is.. depends where he took the trade. If he would have taken the trade at a crucial price zone, then I guarantee price will at one point return to his entry area... This may take weeks, months or years, depending on the timeframe viewed, but price will return.

I see these price zones and trade accordingly. Whenever price has passed a crucial area without coming back and testing it, then I know for a fact that price will return there. Sometimes it happens quickly, other times it can take 1-2 weeks...
and that is why I average in and end up closing in profit.

Regards
  • #43
  • Jun 23, 2010 11:47am Jun 23, 2010 11:47am
People here already think I'm crazy going against trends and such... so, here's another "crazy" trade.

Long EurChf @ 1.3580
Tp 1.38

Wonder if I might have to add...
Hope not.
  • #44
  • Jun 23, 2010 6:33pm Jun 23, 2010 6:33pm
Quoting PIP Lover
Hi Scalp,
As we all know ,the timing factor is unpredictable in forex. If it were, everyone would be rich. Price does however move through support/resistance zones . What is predictable, is that every support/resistance area will be tested at one point. There will be no open area which hasn't been tested and thus allowing traders to forever stay in a position.

Now, you may ask... what about monthly/weekly charts where a strong trend is present?- can't one sell/buy at the begining of the trend and hold forever? The answer is.. depends where he...
This is all well and good and provided you are in the right direction when a Black Swan event happens then you should be ok, but if the market was to crash overnight whilst your positions where open and your little rule didnt play out well, then you will just become another market statistic and depending on your exposure it may happen quicker than you think. It all looks good on paper until you reach a critical decision on whether to ignore the drawdown and continue or to admit your wrong and take the loss.

This is the part that makes your trading style difficult because regardless of what you think when your staring at say 30-40% drawdown and you cannot execute the SL button then you will either wither into oblivion like so many before you or spend whatever time in the red that is required. In either scenario you will be looking at months or years of grind pretty much looking flushed. Trading is not about macho status of being a drawdown hero, that is, the guy who can sit in the red for the longest without sweating. It is about preserving your capital and treating 'it' as king above all else. But hey what do I know my name is not Buffet or Soros...
  • #45
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:55pm Jun 23, 2010 9:55pm
I am not a big fan of staying in trades with large drawdowns. If the drawdown will be larger than the spread, I prefer to exit the trade and look for a more profitable time to enter the trade. I would rather pay a small spread to enter a well planned trade, than to sit and babysit an ambiguous trade. It is just a matter of DOLLARS and CENTS to me.
  • #46
  • Jun 24, 2010 1:42am Jun 24, 2010 1:42am
Quoting Razor_trader
This is all well and good and provided you are in the right direction when a Black Swan event happens then you should be ok, but if the market was to crash overnight whilst your positions where open and your little rule didnt play out well, then you will just become another market statistic and depending on your exposure it may happen quicker than you think. It all looks good on paper until you reach a critical decision on whether to ignore the drawdown and continue or to admit your wrong and take the loss.

This is the part that makes your trading...

Hi Razor,

First of all let me say I understand where you are coming from... It does seem crazy or ridiculous at times when I add against a losing position.
However, since I trade from 1 to 8 hour charts (not day, weekly or monthly charts) then I know for a fact that I will not wither into oblivion, all I have to do is patiently wait for price to return to the areas I saw as crucial and were not tested properly. Take for instance the Cad/Jpy trade. Sure I was wayyyy early to long to say the least, but hey, timing is the unpredictable factor. All I know now, and I hope you follow and test me, is that Cad/Jpy will reach at least 88.40/50 on the upside... this can take 1-2 weeks (hoping for quicker). I will add more for the last time at 85 area. Also, you should know I have an emergency stop which is 1000 pips from my initial entry in every trade.

I have been testing my system for around 2 years, and trading it for 6 months. Never lost a trade so far. By far the best system I have traded.

Green pips to all.

P.S can anyone help me out in moving this thread to the Trading Journals section?
  • #47
  • Jun 24, 2010 2:01am Jun 24, 2010 2:01am
I think you are missing the point about black swan events.

Without stating your position sizing and risk per trade, this system is open to big blow out.

Without knowing too much about what you are doing, if you were trading this way in july 08 there is a good chance you would of blown out your accounts when markets took a dive.

But best of luck with your trading just be careful. Think it would clear up a lot if you mention your money management/position sizing too.
  • #48
  • Jun 24, 2010 2:16am Jun 24, 2010 2:16am
Quoting fxdanny4x
I think you are missing the point about black swan events.

Without stating your position sizing and risk per trade, this system is open to big blow out.

Without knowing too much about what you are doing, if you were trading this way in july 08 there is a good chance you would of blown out your accounts when markets took a dive.

But best of luck with your trading just be careful. Think it would clear up a lot if you mention your money management/position sizing too.

I think you are missing the point... Even in black swan events if price dives all of a sudden 2000 pips, when a crucial area will be breached, it will be re-tested at one point. The only important element is identyfing the right areas and knowing price will return there for sure.

I trade 1-2 mini lots each time I enter so even if I am down 500-600 pips its ok.. 3000-4000 $ drawdown is fineby me I have made much more than that in the past
  • #49
  • Jun 24, 2010 2:19am Jun 24, 2010 2:19am
Quoting PIP Lover
I think you are missing the point... Even in black swan events if price dives all of a sudden 2000 pips, when a crucial area will be breached, it will be re-tested at one point. The only important element is identyfing the right areas and knowing price will return there for sure.

I trade 1-2 mini lots each time I enter so even if I am down 500-600 pips its ok.. 3000-4000 $ drawdown is fineby me I have made much more than that in the past
I think you are still missing the point in explaining money management (with all due respect).

What %of equity is each of your entries? 1-2mini lots doesn't mean much, unless we also know the account balance (forgive me if i missed this somewhere).

cheers
dan
  • #50
  • Jun 24, 2010 2:27am Jun 24, 2010 2:27am
Quoting fxdanny4x
I think you are still missing the point in explaining money management (with all due respect).

What %of equity is each of your entries? 1-2mini lots doesn't mean much, unless we also know the account balance (forgive me if i missed this somewhere).

cheers
dan

The most I risk on a trade is 1000 pips from my initial entry. This will be 1000-2000 $ on this one trade alone and ammounts to 3-6 % of my equity. I do however add more positions and I dont get to -1000 pips....
So I cant tell you exactly how much I risk.. it varies from trade to trade.

I think I have reached -20 , -25 % one time... sweated a little but it worked out.

Cheers
  • #51
  • Jun 24, 2010 4:46am Jun 24, 2010 4:46am
Quoting PIP Lover
Hi Razor,

First of all let me say I understand where you are coming from... It does seem crazy or ridiculous at times when I add against a losing position.
However, since I trade from 1 to 8 hour charts (not day, weekly or monthly charts) then I know for a fact that I will not wither into oblivion, all I have to do is patiently wait for price to return to the areas I saw as crucial and were not tested properly. Take for instance the Cad/Jpy trade. Sure I was wayyyy early to long to say the least, but hey, timing is the unpredictable factor. All...
First 2 years test period is not enough to get a greater overview. Taking into mind that the crash occured close to that period and that is all I will say on that. I will outline it for you prior to the crash. You would be a fool to say you were not Bullish EUR/USD from 2000ish to even 2007 onwards. Had you taken long trades at support levels, that is above 1.5500 and above, prior to the crash then you would have had a huge number of lost trades because of the fall. THAT is a Black Swan event and that is what this sort of trading sets you up for. The 911 terrorist attacks also caused huge rifts. Now the question is not whether price will return, if history shows us anything its that price levels do get hit, its when. The other things you need to be aware of, especially as lot sizing becames larger is Interest Swaps. You could be on one side of the market that is going against you and also have the double wammy of a -tive interest swap that eats away.

Trading is not just about saying price will hit this point, sure it may but in the mean time preserving your capital should be of the upmost importance and weathering huge drawdowns and taking 1000 pip SL's is a sure fire way to erase months or years of hard work. In the above situation you could have been bullish EUR for 6 years and made great gains only to watch a huge portion eradicated in months. There are many events that cause huge spikes in this market, events that can change the polarity and unless you are on the ball and prepare to take a loss here and there then it means nothing to say I made X amount in X years only to be broke in the end.

That is all I will say. In the end if you are comfortable with what you are doing and you understand that no approach is infalliable and nothing is 100% predictable then you may last to have the last laugh. But if you find yourself in the future facing a Margin Call I only hope you learn something from it.

Take care and prove me wrong

Razor
  • #52
  • Jun 24, 2010 6:01am Jun 24, 2010 6:01am
I have a theory that if I was blindfolded and put a dot on a chart that price would eventually touch that spot. I may run out on money before it does, but I really think it would work. So if my pockets were deep enough, I would never have a losing trade. I don't doubt for one minute that someone may have mastered this way of trading! For the rest of us, we need to pay attention to
a good trading method with proper money management.
  • #53
  • Jun 24, 2010 8:44am Jun 24, 2010 8:44am
Quoting PIP Lover
Greetings everyone,


First predction:
Eur/Cad ... right now sits at 1.2570... Price target is 1.28 within 1-2 weeks. Lets see if i can get my 230 pips

More to come as soon as predictions can be made.

Well i allready closed this sucker for 195 pips but still nice to see i was right with 1.28.. and it took the exact time i predicted - 2 weeks.

If anybody else can make predictions please do so we can discuss trading. I welcome debate.
  • #54
  • Jun 24, 2010 10:06am Jun 24, 2010 10:06am
Quoting PIP Lover
If anybody else can make predictions please do so we can discuss trading. I welcome debate.
I predict that you are very stubborn. You cadjpy trade is horribly against you at the moment and instead of figuring out how to capitalize on it, IE get stopped out, re-evauluate, change position, you are in a ridiculous amount of drawdown just so that you can say you were right.

Your entry:
Quoting PIP Lover
Long @ 88.82
Target 89.60
was flawed. You were looking for 80 pips... 80 whole pips.

Then when that didnt work out:
Quoting PIP Lover
Added more at 87.50
Now averaged long @ 88.16

Thought this was gonna be a quick one.
Oh well, will just have to add more until she turns back up.
You buy more just to prove that you were right and the market was wrong. Quick one, heh. Yah, Itll be quick in taking all your capital.

Quoting PIP Lover
Adding more @ 86.50

averaged long now 87.60

not sure we will reach 89.60 as predicted but 88.40-50 for sure
Ohhh so now you dont think it will reach all the way to your initial take profit huh? Hmm, so much for that 100% price prediction theory of yours.

So lets see now... You have had profits of 315, 306, and 195... well as it stands you have a paperloss that has wiped out the 195 gain and your gbpcad trade has moved nicely against you (and this is really the only trade I agree with you in terms of direction but I would have waited for a failure of resistance before getting in, instead of waiting for the high of the day like you did.). The only one that is sort of treading water right now is the eurchf.

Its also obvious that this is a waste of time because you can do no wrong so you just go ahead a keep on buying on the way down and selling on the way up. Im just curious, did you buy enron and worldcom shares around 2001? Maybe some AIG and Citi in 2007... worked out well for those folks too
  • #55
  • Jun 24, 2010 12:17pm Jun 24, 2010 12:17pm
Last words of a "Trader"(Gambler).

Quote
I know for a fact that I will not wither into oblivion, all I have to do is patiently wait for price to return to the areas I saw as crucial and were not tested properly.
  • #56
  • Jun 28, 2010 6:19am Jun 28, 2010 6:19am
Quoting PIP Lover
Long EurChf @ 1.3580
Tp 1.38

Wonder if I might have to add...
Hope not.

Added @ 1.3420
Averaged long @ 1.35 tp still 1.38

killing the trade at 1.3180
  • #57
  • Jun 28, 2010 6:39am Jun 28, 2010 6:39am
I am sorry to say.you are going down.It is impossible to trade with 1000 pip stop loss.Market will catch you sometime
  • #58
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:40am Jun 28, 2010 8:40am
Wow... you really spend your time forecasting the market mate??

I don't even know that was possible actually... ah, well, but that just me, newbie, thinking here...

CMIIW
  • #59
  • Jun 29, 2010 5:49am Jun 29, 2010 5:49am
Quoting PIP Lover
Added @ 1.3420
Averaged long @ 1.35 tp still 1.38

killing the trade at 1.3180
I said I wasnt going to speak anymore but seriously. I will post 2 charts that show why you are going to be struggling. Weekly and daily, Both very bearish, both carrying alot of bearish momentum.

The fact that you are ave long 1.3500 and are currenrtly 300 pips off the market on a couple of positions illustrates what I mentioned earlier about multipling losses. It also shows that you have no idea about predicting price because your estimation is against the greater trend which would imply you are trying to pick bottoms and tops, which without some form of crystal ball and with your approach is going to lead to pain.

2 charts, do as you will with them but so far there is little you are doing to convince anyone that you can predict price. So far if you end up taking a loss on this your record will be 3 nice trades to 1 massive blunder.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHF Weekly.jpg Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHF daily.jpg Size: 59 KB
  • #60
  • Jun 29, 2010 6:00am Jun 29, 2010 6:00am
Quoting PIP Lover
Added @ 1.3420
Averaged long @ 1.35 tp still 1.38

killing the trade at 1.3180

Adding more again at 1.3265
Averaged at 1.3422

will not kill the trade at 1.3180 , i will kill at 1.29.
This is how I trade.. going all in.
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