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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #228,221
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:39am Jun 23, 2010 3:39am
Quoting Raza
Whats Going on....

I missed my entry scalp cause of reading Your POST...J/K

Looks like G/J may go down BIG...
thought you are "extremely bearish usd/cad ?

possible yes for a big drop to 123.80 ... but might not ...

im selling gbp/jpy right now stop above 136.50 ..targets the below supp area's to 128.60 first,then for last and final push,spike down to 123.80.. or get stopped out and do the usual procedure..get over it,and move on to the next
  • #228,222
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:42am Jun 23, 2010 3:42am
Quoting Raza
Whats Going on....

I missed my entry scalp cause of reading Your POST...J/K

Looks like G/J may go down BIG...
If can i prefer she heading 135.32 before drop.
  • #228,223
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:46am Jun 23, 2010 3:46am
Quoting Geppy
Why would you fear that? I dream of such things!
i fear cos im not sure
  • #228,224
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:56am Jun 23, 2010 3:56am
1hr says huge drop to me but daily and weekly says huge rise.... i've had problems with 1 hr before but still i feel its risky to trade i've seen many a times what 1 hr can do especially the 1300 pips drop i was on the right side then luckily.... but now there is a conflict......really risky i rather stay out
  • #228,225
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:57am Jun 23, 2010 3:57am
Quoting Gucc

overall i have a pending waiiting on gbp/jpy for buy and sell .. who ever hit first ,ill jump that buss.. i will long at 133.74 and will short from 134.95 ..will only long if we hit it first before 134.95 ...



..
the low was 133.77 ,and my buying area was 133.75 ..then want to go long,but dont bother to 134.95 and so far we spike up to 134.946.. oh well ...
  • #228,226
  • Jun 23, 2010 4:07am Jun 23, 2010 4:07am
Quoting special0nefx
If can i prefer she heading 135.32 before drop.
I bought for some scalp till there..

Dangerous stuff!!
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #228,227
  • Jun 23, 2010 4:59am Jun 23, 2010 4:59am
The UK news had little reason to move the pound, and we look likes like we're seeing another ceiling here below 135. 136 IMO remains a very strong ceiling that's held on multiple breakthrough attempts over the month, getting hit by sellers every time it gets there. It's confusing though that stopping volume and buyers are keeping a fairly religious regime in place too. Also, lower TL adherence seems to be changing, and we may be under the TL from 126. (dashed yellow on the chart)

While respect for the 136 area is fairly rigid, the lows are all over the place. Our recent visit to 133 doesn't seem to have shaken out many longs and I'm looking for a revisit to 131.2. It's disconcerting that although trading volume is high, GJ has been in a ~200 pip trading range for most of the month. MACD on H4 looks very indecisive. Current upside IMO is limited to 135.3, which we might see before NY's open.

It seems the NY session is the prime driver of sterling lately with correlation there high. Given how the DOW and S&P charts look, more expected bad US data this week, bearishness on UJ and the wound up nature of the GJ MAs on the daily, I think a larger down move is coming. Pre-May 6 was similar for ~3 weeks, Sept pre-139 was similar for 2-3 weeks and there are other examples. GL to all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #228,228
  • Edited 5:33am Jun 23, 2010 5:18am | Edited 5:33am
Quoting Beljevina
The UK news had little reason to move the pound, and we look likes like we're seeing another ceiling here below 135. 136 IMO remains a very strong ceiling that's held on multiple breakthrough attempts over the month, getting hit by sellers every time it gets there. It's confusing though that stopping volume and buyers are keeping a fairly religious regime in place too. Also, lower TL adherence seems to be changing, and we may be under the TL from 126. (dashed yellow on the chart)

While respect for the 136 area is fairly rigid, the lows are all...
It could be the opposite.. Like you said 135.30 = 135.54 is important

4 HR AND 1 HR above I-Cloud...ATM

It seems its not going anywhere till thursday.... Wedge ..ping- pong,,, ETc..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #228,229
  • Jun 23, 2010 5:59am Jun 23, 2010 5:59am
136 is the ceiling because it's where the Weekly TL connecting the Feb 2009 and Feb 2010 lows is sitting. This is the most important line on the chart at the moment. Psychologically it's the divide between 2 potential 1500 point ranges. (you can see this clearly on the Daily and Weekly charts)

When we broke below this TL during the fat finger event, the daily price closed exactly on it after the pullback on the GMT chart. (the chart I'm posting is an EST chart I use for NY sessions, so the daily close is different)

After we broke below the Weekly TL on May 14th, we have challenged it from the bottom numerous times.

As long as the 4H ascending TL holds price on the bottom and the Weekly TL is holding price on the top, this triangle is our playground.

A break out of either the 4H LTL or Weekly TL will be significant. So the blueprint for trading GY until that event takes place is to use these 2 lines and center of the range (currently 134.8) as TP targets as we bounce around. This will guarantee a decent proportion of good trades until we break out and begin trending again. Entering long at top of the range under the Weekly TL or at the bottom of the range above the 4H is a good way to rack up losses until the consolidation is complete.

Worst case scenario, this consolidation could last until the first week of July so a lot of patience is necessary atm. So far, this chart pattern is a bullish indication unless the ascending triangle is broken on the bottom TL, so that is my current bias unless conditions change.

Good luck w/ your trades.
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  • #228,230
  • Jun 23, 2010 6:04am Jun 23, 2010 6:04am
Quoting Gucc
yip its coming ...waaaay to early actually ,,expecting it to happen in Q4,,but maybe im right ,and we will bounce up and down between 128.60 and 139 ..dont know,, but i do target all in all 123.80... no more below that... if it will happen,,it will be a spike on weekly/monthly ... i cant see any more bullish right now,until we break 136 ..if you look at the above charts of mine,,i did short at 134.95 ,aswell as other jpy crosses,,aswell im long usd/cad from last week and keep holding until i see danger..

im not a big fan on gbp/jpy but could...
orait..thats fine ..

and look like i spoke with somebody (pretty similar number and target, where am thinking Piter may right of ur duplicating name) ...bet with me for 118 since last couple of week.

mmmm....chow

g
  • #228,231
  • Jun 23, 2010 7:24am Jun 23, 2010 7:24am
Decisions decisions....mmmm.

So, it still hasn't reached my low price of 139 yet. I've spent a bit more time reevaluating the future PA.

As you can see I have 2 trendines. Both seem valid to me. The gray one has been breeched but not really significantly. The orange one seems the best bet and still predicts 140ish.

I still believe this range is similar to the 2 previous price actions (1 and 2). The formations are too similar to ignore. Notice how after 1 and 2 drops and retraces to a & b forming a range for a few weeks before dropping. There's also a few other small things but more out of gut feeling so I wont mention as it's not really technical.

So, are we now heading down soon or still going up a bit?

Using other info and charts here's my prediction (bang I've shot myself in the foot!) 137 to 138, then down to 126 or lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #228,232
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:05am Jun 23, 2010 8:05am
It is not that submissions by certain members are, necessarily, wrong. Indeed, with appropriate money management and patience, these trades may well be profitable. However, those two key words are lacking a lot of the time, and one must consider potential drawdown as well. I dare say that a lot of members present do not have unlimited funds, or patience that can see negative trades for days, weeks or even months at a time.

I think that most of the hostility comes from a plethora of submissions, without solid argument to support assertion. Granted, support and resistance trading is a tried and tested method, so it is not that people are screaming for indicators to be added... I am addicted to Fibonacci studies and Guppy profiles, myself.

I will also be the first to admit that some of the submissions I agree with, but I try to be mindful of the psychology of big money, and am cautious these days due to market conditions and sentiment. Let's face it, a few fundamentals that go against expectation, can serious alter PA for a particular instrument; and if a trader is negative for a few days, weeks or even months in said instrument, it could be a huge loss.

I would advise any trader to move cautiously from day to day, at present, and only leave a trade open over the weekend if some profit has been taken, or for smaller accounts, move stop to profit/BE.

Credibility is lost when nothing comes after stating: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=228082

I have waited patiently, and will continue to wait, as I do not discount longer term views - and let us be honest with ourselves, they can sometimes be easier to make.

Quoting ukdaytrader
For the love of God, can someone direct me to a decent Skype room please.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #228,233
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:37am Jun 23, 2010 8:37am
If people are moving to skype or somewhere else, please PM me with info too.

Thanks.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #228,234
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:04am Jun 23, 2010 9:04am
That Daily inside sucker bar trade is finally paying off. Broke the plain yesterday and looks like it may follow thru today. Target 129.75 and will move stop to B/E @ 132.00
  • #228,235
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:24am Jun 23, 2010 9:24am
lets talk GBPJPY and GBPUSD !!
  • #228,236
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:36am Jun 23, 2010 9:36am
Quoting Piters
lets talk GBPJPY and GBPUSD !!
agreed! please concentrate on trading. personal comments are waste of time for everybody. there are many people who go through this page and please dont waste there time.

I am short on GU from 1.4925 and SL at BE now. no position on GY.
  • #228,237
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:46am Jun 23, 2010 9:46am
Quoting Piters
lets talk GBPJPY and GBPUSD !!
hi mr piters,

you were right bout the 136 resistance hmm... im looking at a big fall here but im doubting whether it will fall to such an extent my analysis says 123-124 plunge on 1 hr ... just like it did that day is it possible???? just need a confirmation
  • #228,238
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:50am Jun 23, 2010 9:50am
FYI, new daily chart.

PA is at very important level now 134. If GJ close below LTL and flip daily GANN we will see bearish continuation. Otherwise, it will continue to daily 50 ema and closing above make another bullish rally.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ - 2010-06-23 10-47.jpg Size: 528 KB
Do not follow my trades. Trade what you see on your own charts.
  • #228,239
  • Jun 23, 2010 10:00am Jun 23, 2010 10:00am
Quoting fxsoothsayer
hi mr piters,

you were right bout the 136 resistance hmm... im looking at a big fall here but im doubting whether it will fall to such an extent my analysis says 123-124 plunge on 1 hr ... just like it did that day is it possible???? just need a confirmation
YES mate..

US housing NEWS are very Bad.. plunge 33%;
S&P are developing some BIG H/S on daily.. currently at 1090 with Neck line at 1040.. We probably are heading to test that level.. but still

LTL on daily/4h GBPJPY at 133.60 holds and bouncing as a strong support.. Even with a very bad NEWS.. we are bouncing UP.. Be carefull.. when we break.. watch the S&P H/S pattern too. to have some indication for strength of the breakout or possible a new downtrend..

At these levels when UY is at 90l GBPJPY at daily LTL.. Everything is possible.. I guess we have to wait on EURO and London to close...for some more action..

cheers
  • #228,240
  • Jun 23, 2010 10:06am Jun 23, 2010 10:06am
Quoting igmak
FYI, new daily chart.

PA is at very important level now 134. If GJ close below LTL and flip daily GANN we will see bearish continuation. Otherwise, it will continue to daily 50 ema and closing above make another bullish rally.
Today close below 134, should be bearish once daily LTL close below.
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