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100% Price prediction Journal

  • #21
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:46am Jun 21, 2010 2:46am
Quote:
Originally Posted by PIP Lover http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
This pair is a wild mover... Gone in short at 1.7150.
TP at 1.68 for 350 pips. Should take 1-2 weeks. No SL as usual.
Good luck to me.


Quoting PIP Lover
Closing here at 1.6844 +306 pips ...
Happened much quicker than anticipated but I'm not complaining
Closed in the interbank trade before the market even opened. I dont care if it goes down 50 pips more... I want my money as I am in big drawdown in my eur/usd trade .
Im thinking maybe i should have stayed in this one ..

But euro/usd got me nervous... I know it will head back to 1.22 at least, question is how much more can it go? Over 1.26 I will kill the short trade (averaged short at 2295) - something which I have never done before.
  • #22
  • Jun 21, 2010 4:06am Jun 21, 2010 4:06am
Quoting PIP Lover
My thread used to be in the trading journals section...
And now all of a sudden it has moved to rookie discussion section...
Does anyone now what could have caused this and how I can move it back to the trading journals section?
Help is appreciated.
Thanks
Threads with titles like "100% Price Prediction" tend to get moved here...
  • #23
  • Jun 21, 2010 4:36am Jun 21, 2010 4:36am
Quoting eurotrash
Threads with titles like "100% Price Prediction" tend to get moved here...

Thats a shame especialy since I have already closed two trades for 195 and 306 pips in profit which is impressive by any standards...

Also, my losing positions have not been closed yet.. still waiting to close in profit. I am by no means a rookie. My method is proven.. some people cannot handle drawdown.. I can and that is my system...
  • #24
  • Jun 21, 2010 4:48am Jun 21, 2010 4:48am
Quoting HyperD
Hi fxsignal,

Unfortunately there are many people in finance that don't believe in price prediction, they say each tick is a 50% chance (history doesn't matter), in other words impossible to predict..

In my intraday experiments price sometimes could be successfully predicted up to 200+ ticks, in the next image a Range GBPUSD

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/2362/prediction3.png

50% each way - actually looking at this from a pure math point of view, it's rather true.
  • #25
  • Jun 21, 2010 4:51am Jun 21, 2010 4:51am
Quoting PIP Lover
Thats a shame especialy since I have already closed two trades for 195 and 306 pips in profit which is impressive by any standards...

Also, my losing positions have not been closed yet.. still waiting to close in profit. I am by no means a rookie. My method is proven.. some people cannot handle drawdown.. I can and that is my system...
Does your system have a stop loss?
  • #26
  • Jun 21, 2010 5:13am Jun 21, 2010 5:13am
Quoting witsnpips
Does your system have a stop loss?

My system can predict where price will reach.. It cannot predict when price will reach there. At times, I may be in a position for a couple of weeks before hitting profit. I add if price goes against me.

Never used a fixed stop before. If I'll see that a position goes "hopeless"
I will manualy close it. Btw, this has never happend to me before in 6 months of using this system.
  • #27
  • Jun 21, 2010 5:35am Jun 21, 2010 5:35am
Quoting PIP Lover
My system can predict where price will reach.. It cannot predict when price will reach there. At times, I may be in a position for a couple of weeks before hitting profit. I add if price goes against me.

Never used a fixed stop before. If I'll see that a position goes "hopeless"
I will manualy close it. Btw, this has never happend to me before in 6 months of using this system.
Thats not predicting thats just guessing and hoping and BTW I have been around for long enough to hear the line ' Btw, this has never happend to me before in 6 months of using this system' but I was glad to met a person face to face who blew up a million dollar account after uttering those words. I have seen umpteen others come and go with the same methodology.

But hey so long as you bank some profits here and there for a rainy day you might be alright.
  • #28
  • Jun 21, 2010 3:00pm Jun 21, 2010 3:00pm
Quoting Razor_trader
Thats not predicting thats just guessing and hoping and BTW I have been around for long enough to hear the line ' Btw, this has never happend to me before in 6 months of using this system' but I was glad to met a person face to face who blew up a million dollar account after uttering those words. I have seen umpteen others come and go with the same methodology.

But hey so long as you bank some profits here and there for a rainy day you might be alright.
All I can say is stick around and I'll prove im not guessing nor hoping.

As I mentioned, I can predict price targets but not time... If the price wishes to go against my prediction, so be it, more room to add and possibly even more pips gained (this is because even my first entry will profit).
Also you should know I use other methods as well, but have dedictaed this thread to prediction only. I do not post my other trades which are based on different methods.

Please someone help me in moving this thread to Trading Journals... Thank you
  • #29
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:06pm Jun 21, 2010 6:06pm
Quoting PIP Lover
Thats a shame especialy since I have already closed two trades for 195 and 306 pips in profit which is impressive by any standards...

Also, my losing positions have not been closed yet.. still waiting to close in profit. I am by no means a rookie. My method is proven.. some people cannot handle drawdown.. I can and that is my system...
Itd be more impressive to see two hundred trades close with that kind of profit.

You can ask for it to be moved to the trading journals section by doing a cleanup report. Its that little broom in the corner of a post, next to the post #.
  • #30
  • Jun 21, 2010 7:51pm Jun 21, 2010 7:51pm
Quoting PIP Lover
All I can say is stick around and I'll prove im not guessing nor hoping.

As I mentioned, I can predict price targets but not time... If the price wishes to go against my prediction, so be it, more room to add and possibly even more pips gained (this is because even my first entry will profit).
Also you should know I use other methods as well, but have dedictaed this thread to prediction only. I do not post my other trades which are based on different methods.

Please someone help me in moving this thread to Trading Journals... Thank you
I have been around and for long enough to see where this goes. I have also tested the theory of price averaging, which in a nut shell is all this is, for longer than you care to imagine and unless you are prepared to take a hit and accept your wrong when your account hits a massive drawdown and is tanking in the opposite direction to your "target belief" then I am sure I will still be around while your thread drifts off into MC territory.

But hey by all means, please prove me wrong. I am not a hater of threads like this but seriously how long did you do your testing before heading into this and are you trading live. If the test period is insufficient and your not live then this is where the thread belongs.
  • #31
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:14am Jun 22, 2010 12:14am
Long @ 88.82
Target 89.60
  • #32
  • Jun 22, 2010 1:17am Jun 22, 2010 1:17am
Hi HyperD,
What kind of charts are this you use and how do you trade of it?
Sasa
Quoting HyperD
Hi fxsignal,

Unfortunately there are many people in finance that don't believe in price prediction, they say each tick is a 50% chance (history doesn't matter), in other words impossible to predict..

In my intraday experiments price sometimes could be successfully predicted up to 200+ ticks, in the next image a Range GBPUSD

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/2362/prediction3.png


What do you mean by zero spread trade?


Regards
  • #33
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:25pm Jun 22, 2010 6:25pm
Quoting sasavisnic67
Hi HyperD,
What kind of charts are this you use and how do you trade of it?
Sasa
Hi sasavisnic67,

The chart represent actual values (blue) vs predicted values (red),

In a previous chart in page 1, you could see that the price was predicted 9 times in a row (both lines coincide), very hard to get 9 consecutive exact ticks if price changes are independent. You could see in the image the future 60 ticks (bullish), from 31 to 48 an exact prediction..

http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/8351/prediction.png

I don't trade right now. I need more experiments because sometimes prices are harder to predict..


Regards
  • #34
  • Jun 23, 2010 1:19am Jun 23, 2010 1:19am
Quoting PIP Lover
Long @ 88.82
Target 89.60
Added more at 87.50
Now averaged long @ 88.16

Thought this was gonna be a quick one.
Oh well, will just have to add more until she turns back up.
  • #35
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:54am Jun 23, 2010 3:54am
I wanted to start a journal like this and post my charts, but it seems its only available to members, not junior members. I've looked for somewhere where it lays out the process to become a member, but havent had any luck. Anyone know? or where I should post these sorts of questions?

These price prediction charts are fascinating to me, because it doesnt seem like they use the "standard" TA indicators you see about so often. I'm going to follow this thread at any rate.

Thanks for taking the time to post them by the way!

Mick
  • #36
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:37am Jun 23, 2010 8:37am
Quoting PIP Lover
Added more at 87.50
Now averaged long @ 88.16

Thought this was gonna be a quick one.
Oh well, will just have to add more until she turns back up.

Adding more @ 86.50

averaged long now 87.60

not sure we will reach 89.60 as predicted but 88.40-50 for sure
  • #37
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:53am Jun 23, 2010 8:53am
Quoting PIP Lover
Adding more @ 86.50

averaged long now 87.60

not sure we will reach 89.60 as predicted but 88.40-50 for sure
The pair just broke down through 4 major levels of support and you are buying all the way down

So when do you reach the point where you stop buying and start selling. When you run out of margin? Just imagine if you had a 50 pip stop on there, then you could have seen your 100% prediction was wrong and could be shorting it now. But geez, making money is no fun huh? Only being 100% right is... I think I would rather be wrong and wealthy over right and broke, which by the way, is where you are heading.

I think it is pretty obvious by now that you have no idea what you are doing
  • #38
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:07am Jun 23, 2010 9:07am
Quoting PIP Lover
Well I said i wouldnt add more but I am sure this thing will go down to at least 1.22, just taking its time. So added for the last time at 1.24.
Now averaged short @ 2293. Lets See how this goes. I doubt it will go up past 1.25.

Closed everything here at 1.2215

All together profit is short 2400 185 pips
short 2340 125 pips
short 2265 50 pips
short 2170 - 45 pips
--------------------
315 pips

Read it and weep to all the haters.
  • #39
  • Edited 9:43am Jun 23, 2010 9:11am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting traderjai_inhi
The pair just broke down through 4 major levels of support and you are buying all the way down

So when do you reach the point where you stop buying and start selling. When you run out of margin? Just imagine if you had a 50 pip stop on there, then you could have seen your 100% prediction was wrong and could be shorting it now. But geez, making money is no fun huh? Only being 100% right is... I think I would rather be wrong and wealthy over right and broke, which by the way, is where you are heading.

I think it is pretty obvious by...
Take a look at the 3 other trades I close for 315, 306 and 195 pips in profit. All part of the plan.
Some traders dont get that many pips in a couple of months, I did it in 2 weeks.
I can handle a little drawdown no biggie, I am sure it will get back to my profit zone.

Btw , I will be adding more if it reaches 85.00
  • #40
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:23am Jun 23, 2010 9:23am
Short 1.5550
Tp 1.53
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