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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #16,821
  • Jun 21, 2010 10:36am Jun 21, 2010 10:36am
Quoting indianguyinny24
The teacher (FTI ) thought for a moment,
"4 years."
How true
  • #16,822
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:33pm Jun 21, 2010 12:33pm
Here's where all the paper dollars are being stored

http://www.activeboard.com/forum.spa...picID=35778276
  • #16,823
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:27pm Jun 21, 2010 2:27pm
For me it is early morning. So good morning everyone!

After feeling I was close to mastering the fti approach a number of times only to suffer a drawdown or two, I thought I would put down here an outline of my FX trading journey in the hope that others more experienced members may be able to recognize my remaining demons and in the hope that other newer members may 'hopefully' recognize similarities in their journey and possibly gain hope and courage to continue.

I shall post this short story in parts so that those who wish can skip over it quickly.

I first began trading/ investing in shares roughly 10 years ago and have been playing around with FX for about a year now. As soon as I saw the words TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FALLACY I wanted to read this thread. I always felt that there was something about TA that was not helpful when it came to trading. (Now I know! Do not try to make it predictive!)

I use OANDA and I trade in extremely small amounts whilst I am in the learning phase. (The only reason I use OANDA is because of this facility)
I think for me this method is better than using a demo account because although the risk amount is minuscule (100 to 1,000 lot sizes) I am trading with real money. Therefore, the psychological stresses and strains are also still there.

What a breath of fresh air FTI 's method was for me! It was OK to have my doubts about TA and maybe there was a better way to use it.

The first two things I thought I learnt from the thread, was that:

If I follow the Daily trend I can't go wrong.

and

I can now go out and place any trade I like without having to worry because I can always RESCUE IT if it goes the wrong way.

I WAS STILL TRYING TO RETAIN MY OLD WAYS OF FINDING RULES I COULD FOLLOW RELIGIOUSLY. IN REALITY I WAS BEING 'RECKLESS'!

I now know that the emphasis needs to be on successful 'attacks' and the preservation of capital. Rescues are part of the MO but I generally try to avoid rescues and focus more on reading the trend for a successful attack and bailing out if things don't look redeemable.

to be continued.

p.s Hope I am not just wasting space here for you guys.
With wisdom comes humility. With humility comes wisdom!
  • #16,824
  • Jun 21, 2010 5:44pm Jun 21, 2010 5:44pm
Quoting piphop
For me it is early morning. So good morning everyone!

After feeling I was close to mastering the fti approach a number of times only to suffer a drawdown or two, I thought I would put down here an outline of my FX trading journey...
Welcome to the Family of TAF...


V
  • #16,825
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:52pm Jun 21, 2010 6:52pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Welcome to the Family of TAF...


V
Thankyou V

Rescues were a God send to me because it took a lot of the fear out of pulling the trigger and the fear when price moves against the position. For the first time in my trading I was able to turn a miss-timed position into a BE or profitable position.

The next thing I thought I learn t was that 'It is OK to leave a position in overnight.' Well I'm sure you know what came next. Yes! Good pips, until the inevitable strong move against the position. A move so strong that you'd have to have balls of steel to hold to without bailing out. I bailed out only to watch the price recover a day or two later.

This taught me that 'It's OK to leave a position in for a few days whilst trying to rescue it because the price will eventually recover.'
And of course you're right if you think I was totally out of control. I had just learn t about the effects of 'snowballing.'

So that's why the first 200 pages need to be read over and over because as you can see I was directly contradicting many of the things that were stated in the teachings and I suspect I am not alone when first starting out.

I am now very reluctant to leave a position in over night when rescuing. I only do it if my position is a small one and very slow to put in more troops until and unless I believe that the next move will be back in the direction of my trade.

Rob
With wisdom comes humility. With humility comes wisdom!
  • #16,826
  • Jun 21, 2010 7:10pm Jun 21, 2010 7:10pm
Was there any news out ther???/



V
  • #16,827
  • Jun 21, 2010 7:11pm Jun 21, 2010 7:11pm
Quoting piphop
Thankyou V

Rescues were a God send to me because it took a lot of the fear out of pulling the trigger and the fear when price moves against the position. For the first time in my trading I was able to turn a miss-timed position into a BE or profitable position.

The next thing I thought I learn t was that 'It is OK to leave a position in overnight.' Well I'm sure you know what came next. Yes! Good pips, until the inevitable strong move against the position. A move so strong that you'd have to have balls of steel to hold to without bailing...

Nice job Rob,

you are on track and u know what u r doing.........

i can only say its a Marathon not a 100 m sprint....so first lets create the stamina to run the marathon,....


V
  • #16,828
  • Jun 21, 2010 9:02pm Jun 21, 2010 9:02pm
Quoting fti
seems ranging for topagain
watch for impulse
is very fluid situation noe
care filly initiating short scout

last platform for drop was 95 zone

seems nothing on the cards to push her over the cliff
YET.
didnt get to mention it earlier but thanks for heads up reminder on 95 area, I should of been aware of it but wasnt till ya mentioned it.
  • #16,829
  • Jun 21, 2010 9:05pm Jun 21, 2010 9:05pm
Quoting Setebos
Here's where all the paper dollars are being stored

http://www.activeboard.com/forum.spa...picID=35778276
WOW, some of my lost money.
  • #16,830
  • Jun 21, 2010 9:40pm Jun 21, 2010 9:40pm
Quoting piphop
Thankyou V

Rescues were a God send to me because it took a lot of the fear out of pulling the trigger and the fear when price moves against the position. For the first time in my trading I was able to turn a miss-timed position into a BE or profitable position.

The next thing I thought I learn t was that 'It is OK to leave a position in overnight.' Well I'm sure you know what came next. Yes! Good pips, until the inevitable strong move against the position. A move so strong that you'd have to have balls of steel to hold to without bailing...
Good post and thanks Rob. Yes overnight in Australia would be the late London and New York session. Often big moves during those times. Dangerous not to be around. All the best with your trading journey. Ray
  • #16,831
  • Jun 21, 2010 10:53pm Jun 21, 2010 10:53pm
watchin what 2283 area does this time.
  • #16,832
  • Edited Jun 22, 2010 12:37am Jun 21, 2010 11:36pm | Edited Jun 22, 2010 12:37am
Quoting piphop
.... So that's why the first 200 pages need to be read over and over because as you can see I was directly contradicting many of the things that were stated in the teachings and I suspect I am not alone when first starting out.
Rob
Hi Rob,
I enjoy your honest and thoughtful post because it resonates with many of my errs.
I am now on the 400 page range of re-read and find there are pearls after the first 200 pages that give "light bulb" moments.

Rgs,
Baiu

edit: example post #6136,
edit: not to rescue against impulse was covered in the first 200 pages, but it is good to be reminded

May i ask what made you come to the following conclusions?
(conclusions is:
so far no rescue window opens , therefore rescue is ill advised.http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/big_grin.gif
R3 remaining on standby)

The worst thing in trading is adding to bad positions.( So you never rescue until you can determine that the rescue is done, not on the impulse wave)
When a position is bad, you must always be on defensive if you are to add to the existing position. First and foremost you should never add to a market thats cutting into the bleeding. ( the maxim is that you never catch falling knifes and shooting rockets).When an opportunity to add surfaces within a time windows of within x bars of last position, it is doing so out of window, ie if this opportunity was real then you wouldn't be able to catch it due to its volatility anyway. Then if the opportunity avails further from that then there is a strong possibiliity that a reversal was of high possibility. So for prudence , you have to re access the analysis to determine if the action is "best practise".

x is a function of the volatility detemined by visual ATR.

In all syne waves you will see a forward wave and a back wave. We call them left hand and right hand waves. Elliott did good explaination about the impulse and retrace, but found difficulty when his impulse wave counted into left hand wave. Late Elliottians adopted alternative counts to accommodate of left had waves, but the err in wave fitting the 5 counts and extended 5 counts complicated the count to bogus wave fitting & counting. I use this in its most primitive.

For todays example if you look at the Eurusd we had just moved on the up waves to right hand, whereas before the leg down to 12950, the right waves were downwaves. For the wave sequense to satisfy the basic dow theory of "trend" and to stay with trend, the right hand must satisfy the required condition.
regards

my note: left hand wave = impulsive, right hand wave =reactive, fti does not agree with Elliot wave counts (curve fitting) especially the extensions in impulse and combinations in reactive. Correction welcome.
  • #16,833
  • Edited 12:18am Jun 22, 2010 12:04am | Edited 12:18am
oops,
big drop big drop coming.
need see the resistance
initiating high skew selling euros

wohhhh, idiots in crosses.
nevermind soon you'll be history.

need some real traders in the markets.
where're you guys?
oops, watching football??
  • #16,834
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:17am Jun 22, 2010 12:17am
Quoting fti
oops,
big drop big drop coming.
need see the resistance
initiating high skew selling euros

wohhhh, idiots in crosses.
nevermind soon you'll be history.
Hello Fti, so you start not with scout?
Why so short setup???
Regards

They are buying Eur against Gbp... interesting...
  • #16,835
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:19am Jun 22, 2010 12:19am
Quoting Fana
Hello Fti, so you start not with scout?
Why so short setup???
Regards
didn't the lines show you key reversal?
  • #16,836
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:26am Jun 22, 2010 12:26am
Quoting fti
didn't the lines show you key reversal?
Yes, neckline broken, but why they are going eur long in that Gbp? Low volatility there? "Why they do it...?"

What when the bigger ones will wait until the smaller will go long more and they exploit it range... forever 1,2000 - 1,2400 range? Maybe i am crazy, but is this possible? Everybody maybe expecting some huge movement...
  • #16,837
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:27am Jun 22, 2010 12:27am
Quoting fti
didn't the lines show you key reversal?

Hi and good morning fti and all!

Hmmh - there is a good chance for a key reversal. But I'm, not that sure about it. Would stay nimble till EURUSD has made a final decision in the 12250 area.
But due to the fact, that I spend very small time in the markets at the moment, I'm not really in sync with them ...

Trying to make some pips with my lady USDJPY now.
Bias is slightly short. But have to be nimble as well ...

CU,
MaMood
  • #16,838
  • Edited 1:50am Jun 22, 2010 1:08am | Edited 1:50am
Quoting Setebos
Here's where all the paper dollars are being stored

http://www.activeboard.com/forum.spa...picID=35778276
just one army taking another down.
have you seen pic of cash at the f e d s.
iS the same.
The arsenals also same.
What is the diff, is only the insignias they wear different.
what does that say?
what's meaning of covert ops?

Nice, even have their own zoo.maybe I..........


regards
  • #16,839
  • Jun 22, 2010 1:12am Jun 22, 2010 1:12am
Quoting Fana
Yes, neckline broken, but why they are going eur long in that Gbp? Low volatility there? "Why they do it...?"

What when the bigger ones will wait until the smaller will go long more and they exploit it range... forever 1,2000 - 1,2400 range? Maybe i am crazy, but is this possible? Everybody maybe expecting some huge movement...
The daily printed an outside day Key Reversal

edit: 2 days prior an outside day k.R. white, hm.... manipulation, crosses tear and time to be nimble?

rgs
Baifu
  • #16,840
  • Edited 1:34am Jun 22, 2010 1:14am | Edited 1:34am
Quoting MaMood
Hi and good morning fti and all!

Hmmh - there is a good chance for a key reversal. But I'm, not that sure about it. Would stay nimble till EURUSD has made a final decision in the 12250 area.
But due to the fact, that I spend very small time in the markets at the moment, I'm not really in sync with them ...

Trying to make some pips with my lady USDJPY now.
Bias is slightly short. But have to be nimble as well ...

CU,
MaMood
ya , who can be sure?
I am never.
Thats why I am still standing.
Those that are cock sure.
You can find them at that pile over there.
And some were big boys,used to train with me.

IOt not the training or the mix components.
The YOU factor took them down.
so if you have that wrong, and come here learn some, go guns blazing.
then Good Luck.


regards
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