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Higher low, lower high system

  • #1,421
  • Jun 21, 2010 8:45am Jun 21, 2010 8:45am
Hi V I'm not posting this chart for any reason I just want to see if you can see the chart clearly in the attached image or not for future? No need to answer that can see myself that it works.

Cheers Luke
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  • #1,422
  • Jun 21, 2010 8:47am Jun 21, 2010 8:47am
Quoting reflex
Hi V I'm not posting this chart for any reason I just want to see if you can see the chart clearly in the attached image or not for future?
Yep looks fine, but then you know that already.
  • #1,423
  • Jun 21, 2010 9:29am Jun 21, 2010 9:29am
This was the losing trade I did and I was wondering if you can see anything wrong with it or is it just a losing trade?
the only thing I can think of is maybe I should have waited for a move above or below the range on the 5 min before I entered?

Cheers Luke.
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  • #1,424
  • Edited 11:31am Jun 21, 2010 9:45am | Edited 11:31am
Quoting reflex
This was the losing trade I did and I was wondering if you can see anything wrong with it or is it just a losing trade?
the only thing I can think of is maybe I should have waited for a move above or below the range on the 5 min before I entered?

Cheers Luke.
Its just one of those losing trades I think. The 1 hr had just closed neg ie in its lower half but a decent wick. I have W M3 at 4854 which seems to have been the reason it paused. With a 15 min shooting star like that you would have thought the trade would be fine. In hindsight that lower wick on 1hr needed a little more time to work its way out.
  • #1,425
  • Jun 21, 2010 9:54am Jun 21, 2010 9:54am
Quoting Vantage
Its just one of those losing trades I think. The 1 hr had just closed neg ie in its lower half but a decent wick. I have W M3 at 4854 which seems to have been the reason it paused. With a 15 min shooting star like that you would have thought the trade would be fine. In hindsight that lower wick on 1hr needed a little more time to work its way out.
Thanks for clearing that up wasn't sure about the hourly close myself.
I did get a nice trade a bit later on though the same one as you posted next to the x.

Cheers.
  • #1,426
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:36am Jun 21, 2010 11:36am
Quoting Vantage
In hindsight that lower wick on 1hr needed a little more time to work its way out.
Reflex sometimes when price really struggles with an area ie where you had the losing trade it just needs a little more space/pullback. Stick with hl/lh's ie where you took the entry the right arrow after the x in above chart http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1417 . It at least gives good chance to get back the pips on the stop out (often more as that becomes the move that breaks through). Mrs V doesn't have a name for it but if she sees a narrow channel break that fails she likes the move in the original direction and this is a good example.

Mrs V was in bed today (recurring neck problem so the baby sitting was fully in my court) hopefully she'll be OK tomorrow.
  • #1,427
  • Edited Jun 22, 2010 12:40am Jun 21, 2010 12:12pm | Edited Jun 22, 2010 12:40am
Quoting Vantage
Reflex sometimes when price really struggles with an area ie where you had the losing trade it just needs a little more space/pullback. Stick with hl/lh's ie where you took the entry the right arrow after the x in above chart http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1417 . It at least gives good chance to get back the pips on the stop out (often more as that becomes the move that breaks through). Mrs V doesn't have a name for it but if she sees a narrow channel break that fails she likes the move in the original direction...
Yes Looking back through my charts I notice it does that alot but never realised until you just explained that its probally pulling back to build up enough strength to break through and have always regretted sitting out of the last one that usually goes! I am guesing that W M3 is 50% between weekly pivot and weekly resistance 1 cause I put a fib on and it lines up with the number you said earlier 854?

Hope Mrs Vs neck is better tomorrow and can help with the baby sitting.
  • #1,428
  • Jun 22, 2010 2:07am Jun 22, 2010 2:07am
Quoting reflex
Yes Looking back through my charts I notice it does that alot but never realised until you just explained that its probally pulling back to build up enough strength to break through and have always regretted sitting out of the last one that usually goes! I am guesing that W M3 is 50% between weekly pivot and weekly resistance 1 cause I put a fib on and it lines up with the number you said earlier 854?

Hope Mrs Vs neck is better tomorrow and can help with the baby sitting.
Yes W M3 just off that 50% fib.
  • #1,429
  • Jun 22, 2010 2:35am Jun 22, 2010 2:35am
Two quick swings so far today but no entry for me into either of them!
  • #1,430
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:06am Jun 22, 2010 3:06am
Quoting reflex
Two quick swings so far today but no entry for me into either of them!
Just had a sell below 4750 which was taken out at BE. This now means that GU will drop like a stone!!

With the UK budget out in a few hours time this could be a wierd session.
  • #1,431
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:21am Jun 22, 2010 3:21am
Same I just did a short at 14739 looking for a qucik 10-15 pips on this one not looking to good at the moment though.

out +2 definitely going to drop like a stone now lol
  • #1,432
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:49am Jun 22, 2010 3:49am

Hi Vantage,

I've been watching this thread for a while - thanks for taking the time to share.

I sometimes see you come out of trades at break even or -2/3 pips, this morning's short for example. At the moment I have been taking full stops on losing trades as I found I jumped out too early on the ones that go on to hit target, and stay in the ones that don't!!

Can you please explain how you judge a trade to be failing prior to hitting your stop and tips on avoiding taking full stops every losing trade?

Thanks

Bella

  • #1,433
  • Edited 4:25am Jun 22, 2010 4:05am | Edited 4:25am
Wish I'd stayed in that! Got nervous with it being budget day. Had everything pointing short to me no technical reason to get out purely nerves. Targets were 25 psych was the 1st and 261% extension which was also 38% retrece from 8th of june low to yesterdays high was the 2nd target.
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  • #1,434
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:17am Jun 22, 2010 4:17am
Hi Vantage
Is this trade is good? I mean according to the rule..

thanks
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  • #1,435
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:54am Jun 22, 2010 4:54am
Quoting BellaBee

Hi Vantage,



I've been watching this thread for a while - thanks for taking the time to share.


I sometimes see you come out of trades at break even or -2/3 pips, this morning's short for example. At the moment I have been taking full stops on losing trades as I found I jumped out too early on the ones that go on to hit target, and stay in the ones that don't!!


[left]Can you please explain how you judge a trade to be failing prior to hitting your stop and tips on avoiding taking full stops every losing...
Prior to the trade we took pa was a litle erratic. Lots of sideways rubbish and wicks all over the place then a substantial move up, so we did not have a lot of faith in pa putting this down to pre UK budget 'nerves'.

We simply have had enough time invested in watching charts to know that (in the time frames we trade) on a normal trading day we have a system with a high % chance of winning.

OK on the chart below we took the arrow left and did bail at the first pullback, OK our mistake but on a day like today who knows. Typically we would wait till pa gets to +10/12 area and if it comes back to BE fine. When a 2nd move happens we will then move stop to BE again around +10.

We did look at taking the middle arrow down as a trade but left it. On a none UK budget day we would have taken that and the arrow right also. I will admit that we are sometimes too conservative but thats us.

Onto your question as to when we'll bail at BE. Its also part time watching charts and getting that feel but also a little of knowing we've entered a trade x number of pips from a supp/res area and thats the space we've got to let the trade run. We bailed today because of budget jitters and that was wrong as it turned out. We do miss some moves but save other losses and we accept that bad with the good.
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  • #1,436
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:57am Jun 22, 2010 4:57am
Quoting hoichoi
Hi Vantage
Is this trade is good? I mean according to the rule..

thanks
Looks good to me, 15 min was up but no real follow through and the move down below the 5 min hammers took out the last 15 min candle. I'd wandered off and Mrs V and I would have taken these trades on 'normal' days.
  • #1,437
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:59am Jun 22, 2010 4:59am
Quoting hoichoi
Hi Vantage
Is this trade is good? I mean according to the rule..

thanks
Oh hoichoi
Your chart doesn't show but even number and M pivot at 4700 and that would definitly be a good exit point for your trade.
  • #1,438
  • Jun 22, 2010 5:13am Jun 22, 2010 5:13am
Quoting Vantage
Prior to the trade we took pa was a litle erratic. Lots of sideways rubbish and wicks all over the place then a substantial move up, so we did not have a lot of faith in pa putting this down to pre UK budget 'nerves'.

We simply have had enough time invested in watching charts to know that (in the time frames we trade) on a normal trading day we have a system with a high % chance of winning.

OK on the chart below we took the arrow left and did bail at the first pullback, OK our mistake but on a day like today who knows. Typically we would wait...
Thanks for this Vantage. I understand that today isn't a 'normal' trading day and that other factors are affecting trading.

I too am a more conservative trader, sometimes to my detriment, but I reason that it all evens itself out in the end - I miss some winners but I also stay out of some losers!

Sorry to pick your brain re exit of trades, but I they are my weakness at the moment. As I mentioned in my post I have tried to get a 'feel' for exits, but find that I invariably make the wrong decision, hence I made the decision to put in my full stop, and leave the trade. Is this such a bad decision given the high % winners in the system until I am more experienced?

I see you let it run into 10-12 pips profit prior to setting stop to break even. What about the case of a trade running against you from the off? I have trades that will go into 6-7 point (inc spread) loss, then go on to hit target. I feel a little like a rabbit in the headlights trying to overanalyse the chart and see if there's anything I've missed to exit the trade!

Your help is much appreciated.

Bella
  • #1,439
  • Jun 22, 2010 5:51am Jun 22, 2010 5:51am
Quoting BellaBee
Thanks for this Vantage. I understand that today isn't a 'normal' trading day and that other factors are affecting trading.

I too am a more conservative trader, sometimes to my detriment, but I reason that it all evens itself out in the end - I miss some winners but I also stay out of some losers!

Sorry to pick your brain re exit of trades, but I they are my weakness at the moment. As I mentioned in my post I have tried to get a 'feel' for exits, but find that I invariably make the wrong decision, hence I made the decision to put in my full...
I'm going to assume that judging from number of posts you're reasonably new to trading if not pls feel free to put me right.

I'm not sure if you've done this but just to make sure I'll emphasise the point. Trading this or any other (indicator based?) trading system. Once you see an idea that you like first don't trade real money with it until YOU have put in the chart time to make sure that you understand the method and have confidence it will work for YOU. I usually say check out any method in 20 days upmarket, 20 days down market and 20 days sideways. If your system stacks up under those requirements and you've got the chart time to confirm it YOU will be happy that you can trade it. That should do away with some of the concerns you have and also give you some confidence about both getting in and out.

Mrs V and I are still getting amazed that with tightening up with 15 min tweak how strong system is even at prev thought tough entry areas ie even numbers. Anyway there is NOTHING to replace your own chart time with checking out any method.

This is the best free advice you'll get today!!!
  • #1,440
  • Edited 6:14am Jun 22, 2010 6:02am | Edited 6:14am
Thanks Vantage,

I've been trading for a year now (having studied forex prior to this). I have been lurking on Forex Factory, but never posted before. I've tried and tested many different methods of trading, and am currently using a variation of your HL/LH system and put in many hours of studying charts! Perhaps the 'rabbit in headlights' comment mislead you.

I was particularly interested in exits, as I said, I feel they are a weakness. However if what you are saying is that they are subjective and there aren't hard and fast rules, I suppose time will tell how I can perfect mine. Other analysis (targets, entries etc) seem to be working for me, the exit of losing/failed trades will fall into place with a few more months no doubt. I suppose I am always looking to tweak my trading to eek a few more pips out of it each day - trying to exit a failed trade sooner than full stop seemed a good place to start!

Will continue to follow and learn.

Bella
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