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Amyc Trade Journal

  • #621
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:03am Jun 21, 2010 2:03am
Dx has closed the bar outside the lows, that looks like it is going to move down another 0.8 points. That doesn't make shorting eu very attractive to me anytime soon.
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  • #622
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:09pm Jun 21, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting amyc
Hi Uncaged eagle

I don't believe that retail brokers stop hunt, bc my stops are so tight at least once a week I wake up to find that my stop was missed by a fraction of a pip over night. Very rarely do I get taken out and then the trade continues in my direction. If I am taken out it's usually bc I am wrong.
Also if I saw that my retail broker had spiked the price lower than the what the actual price was then I would load up on longs and I suspect i would not be the only one doing that. I don't think that it would be in the financial interests...
Great reply and great advice Amy. I figured it was just fear and propaganda by ecn brokers playing on the bad trades of retail traders. I've never had an issue either and my only live account is with a retail. Amy, do you ever plan on posting your system?
  • #623
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:07pm Jun 21, 2010 6:07pm
S&P moved back into weekly pp on Monday, that move was not unexpected but I thought it was going to happen on Tuesday not Monday. There is still an incomplete pattern that should see it move back up into the green highs this week but first it needs to get back above the midpoint at 1113 on Tuesday.
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Click to Enlarge Name: es.GIF Size: 9 KB
  • #624
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:10pm Jun 21, 2010 6:10pm
Amy,
I've been following your thread for a few days now. My main interest lies in the indexes. As my broker's feed is somewhat different from yours, I would like to ask you what feed did you use for the latest S&P chart?
Thanks.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #625
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:14pm Jun 21, 2010 6:14pm
Quoting bug
Amy,
I've been following your thread for a few days now. My main interest lies in the indexes. As my broker's feed is somewhat different from yours, I would like to ask you what feed did you use for the latest S&P chart?
Thanks.
It's the september ES contract that trades on the CME. My futures broker is Interactive brokers, they get the feed direct from the exchange.
  • #626
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:22pm Jun 21, 2010 6:22pm
AU has done 3 weeks of going to the highs now so that means that the probability next week goes to the lows is high. If AU hangs around the 87-88 area for this week then next weeks green lows will be above the monthly pp, this is bullish and depending on the position of the S&P probably an excellent buy.
For the rest of this week au is in a similar position to the S&P and has an incomplete pattern that will probably see it move higher again.
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Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 14 KB
  • #627
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:29pm Jun 21, 2010 6:29pm
I think eu is moving to the green lows.

Whenever price sells down from the green highs on a Friday it means that the next week it will move all the way back to the green lows before it is good for buying again. The same rule looks like it applies to Sundays as I have seen this pattern play out a bit lately. Monday-Thursday it can usually be brought again off the midpoints.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 14 KB
  • #628
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:32pm Jun 21, 2010 6:32pm
Quoting amyc
It's the september ES contract that trades on the CME. My futures broker is Interactive brokers, they get the feed direct from the exchange.
Thanks. I trade the S&P via CFD which means the prices are sometimes off by a few points, usually at night, of course.
By the way, when looking at the S&P, do you pay any attention to Nasdaq 100 (NDX) for confirmation/divergence? Pardon my ignorance if this has already been answered on previous pages.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #629
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:41pm Jun 21, 2010 6:41pm
Quoting bug
Thanks. I trade the S&P via CFD which means the prices are sometimes off by a few points, usually at night, of course.
By the way, when looking at the S&P, do you pay any attention to Nasdaq 100 (NDX) for confirmation/divergence? Pardon my ignorance if this has already been answered on previous pages.
That will account for the difference. I don't look at the nasdaq, aside from the S&P I chart the dow, FTSE, and australian markets. I find they are usually all doing the samething, but sometimes one will give a better entry than the S&P.
  • #630
  • Jun 21, 2010 8:09pm Jun 21, 2010 8:09pm
The dollar index may have finished its retrace, both charts are daily. The top one shows it has moved from June highs back to June midpoints which also aligned with weekly lows.

Bottom chart shows a different daily view. This is the original move I was looking for but then changed my mind, blue highs to blue lows.
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Click to Enlarge Name: dx.GIF Size: 27 KB
  • #631
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:09am Jun 22, 2010 3:09am
enjoy your trip amy
  • #632
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:39am Jun 22, 2010 3:39am
Quoting OvT
enjoy your trip amy
Thanks OvT, will do,
  • #633
  • Jun 22, 2010 5:42pm Jun 22, 2010 5:42pm
The S&P came back into my buy zone on Tuesday. I said on the weekend that 1089 was where I was putting my buy orders this week.

As long as price stays above 1089 then it is still bullish but if it drops below here then I will exit all the longs. I have an equal number of arguments for it going up or down from here so I won't be suprised to be stopped.

The main argument for shorts being that this support level is below the monthly pivot point, if it was above it would be a much more robust level to long off.
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Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 17 KB
  • #634
  • Jun 22, 2010 5:54pm Jun 22, 2010 5:54pm
AU is back inside the weekly highs. I don't really have a bias for long term direction on this pair at the moment but I think the fact that the S&P fell 20 points while this pair is only 20 pips lower than it was in the London session suggests a lack of sellers.

Also the same pattern which is making longs on the S&P a bit dodgy is going to make it hard for au to fall very far in this correction. Currently I am expecting au to move to next weeks green lows but while those lows stay above the monthly pp au is well supported to move higher off these lows next week. To get a deeper correction au needs to fall hard this week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 17 KB
  • #635
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:24pm Jun 22, 2010 6:24pm
Quoting amyc
AU is back inside the weekly highs. I don't really have a bias for long term direction on this pair at the moment but I think the fact that the S&P fell 20 points while this pair is only 20 pips lower than it was in the London session suggests a lack of sellers.

Also the same pattern which is making longs on the S&P a bit dodgy is going to make it hard for au to fall very far in this correction. Currently I am expecting au to move to next weeks green lows but while those lows stay above the monthly pp au is well supported to move higher off...
totally agree, i was looking for a us stock market signal that would negate the retrace signal, but it didn't really come last night

therefore im probably learning towards the short side for a/u and e/u (and the rest of the correlation) for today

although i totally agree about it having a hard time going down as well (lol)

the market shall decide
  • #636
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:34pm Jun 22, 2010 6:34pm
Hi OvT

I am trading longs on au at the moment, 8706 gave me a long signal. SL below the lows. I am still thinking it needs to go higher before dropping but as you say the market shall decide.
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  • #637
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:42pm Jun 22, 2010 6:42pm
Quoting amyc
Hi OvT

I am trading longs on au at the moment, 8706 gave me a long signal. SL below the lows. I am still thinking it needs to go higher before dropping but as you say the market shall decide.
are you leaving positions opened when u going holiday? haha
  • #638
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:43pm Jun 22, 2010 6:43pm
Quoting OvT
are you leaving positions opened when u going holiday? haha
not in currencies but the S&P longs yes (hopefully)
  • #639
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:46pm Jun 22, 2010 6:46pm
Quoting amyc
not in currencies but the S&P longs yes (hopefully)
ic, haha, all the best!
since tuesday was non decisive with low volatility, though without much down move probably signals a higher high
today might be crucial, let's see
  • #640
  • Jun 22, 2010 7:47pm Jun 22, 2010 7:47pm
Quoting amyc
Hi OvT

I am trading longs on au at the moment, 8706 gave me a long signal. SL below the lows. I am still thinking it needs to go higher before dropping but as you say the market shall decide.
out of that for -6
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