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Silent Service Method

  • #9,301
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:14pm Jun 21, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting TraderDavo
There are some people bullish, but last weeks "buying" was actually the largest short covering in recent (if not ever) EURUSD history. It was not buying. It was people closing shorts. That is not bullish.
Yes but with summer coming up will it be only retail traders shorting it now?
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,302
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:16pm Jun 21, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting Low
It's just my own experience speaking. I've lost the greatest amounts of money directly after a big win. Over-confidence. It's a killer.
Thanks for the tip, I appreciate your help. I will/am being careful.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,303
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:50pm Jun 21, 2010 2:50pm
Quoting TraderDavo
I still think the 1.24-1.26 area is going to be a bear.
I completely agree it should go little further than here, then tank.

However the market always seems to out do expectation on even my most conservative estimates

In reality though I wouldn't be surprised if if it hits 1.35 over summer given the ridiculous price action last year in the low liquidity. I am not taking any longer term shorts until I see 1.28 hit or very convincing price action saying otherwise. If it does hit 1.28 I will add small positions on any further gains and hold given the low rollover costs.

Chris' comments regarding the lack of further upward drive lately is very positive though for further downside

I do hope it only hits 1.25-1.26 for you though, it means my impatient sell trigger will get to release earlier
  • #9,304
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:53pm Jun 21, 2010 2:53pm
I find it interesting that the 150 point upswing in the Dow this morning didn't even put a dent in last nights selling. Printed a nice pin too. That outside bar one gold though makes me just want to stay flat. Every other day someone gets squeezed.
  • #9,305
  • Jun 21, 2010 3:03pm Jun 21, 2010 3:03pm
Quoting dre3029
No definitely not based on recent price action but more based on if the price could break and hold above 90 then I would go long without having lost too many pips. Also, the range looks pretty good. I don't like how it broke above either but nothing is a sure thing. I've come to learn that whenever almost everything lines up in forex the opposite usually happens.

As long as you accept the risk, and I mean TRULY accept it, then you will be fine, win or lose. I agree, that it is where you would look for an entry though.
  • #9,306
  • Jun 21, 2010 3:12pm Jun 21, 2010 3:12pm
Chinese officials announce that they are going to let the Yuan flat a little more against the USD. Traders took this as a signal that China was feeling better about the world's economy. Take a look at these two charts, a remember: It's a global marketplace.
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  • #9,307
  • Jun 21, 2010 3:47pm Jun 21, 2010 3:47pm
Quoting 4xAddict
I completely agree it should go little further than here, then tank.

However the market always seems to out do expectation on even my most conservative estimates

In reality though I wouldn't be surprised if if it hits 1.35 over summer given the ridiculous price action last year in the low liquidity. I am not taking any longer term shorts until I see 1.28 hit or very convincing price action saying otherwise. If it does hit 1.28 I will add small positions on any further gains and hold given the low rollover costs.

Chris' comments regarding...
May not be a bad idea. I think we are going to visit the 1.20-1.21 area here, though. The 1.28-1.29 area certainly would be a good long term resistance area, but I cannot for the life of me see how its going to get there. There is just too much bad news that I would consider imminent. No way Spain lasts another 2 months without flopping. The fundamentals are absolutely horrible and I don't see how they are going to get any better.

Could very well just float up that high over a slow summer though, I suppose. But we are already on a 600 pt rally from the bottom as is, so it seems like such a big push to get it back up that high.

Im still thinking being range bound between 118 and 1.25 is more likely, but who knows when it comes to these erratic markets!
  • #9,308
  • Jun 21, 2010 3:59pm Jun 21, 2010 3:59pm
Quoting TraderDavo

Im still thinking being range bound between 118 and 1.25 is more likely, but who knows when it comes to these erratic markets!
This is my view, with a downward bias, culminating with a move below. (Most likely.)
  • #9,309
  • Jun 21, 2010 4:37pm Jun 21, 2010 4:37pm
http://i48.tinypic.com/30ndraf.png
  • #9,310
  • Jun 21, 2010 8:29pm Jun 21, 2010 8:29pm
Quoting Low
http://i48.tinypic.com/30ndraf.png
The low volume is something that the "permabulls" often forget. When they don't worry about it, it allows them to keep selling there funds. To be honest, I cannot make a case for the markets to go up at all. Anyone who is thinking otherwise is fooling themselves.

Having said that - I have thought that for months, and you have seen how the markets have been straight up.

I think we are in for a bearish end of the year.....

Chris
  • #9,311
  • Jun 21, 2010 8:36pm Jun 21, 2010 8:36pm
Wal-Mart can be used as a proxy for the US consumer, and Chinese imports. Check out this chart, I think it's trying to tell us something.
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  • #9,312
  • Jun 21, 2010 8:44pm Jun 21, 2010 8:44pm
Quoting clockwork71
The low volume is something that the "permabulls" often forget. When they don't worry about it, it allows them to keep selling there funds. To be honest, I cannot make a case for the markets to go up at all. Anyone who is thinking otherwise is fooling themselves.

Having said that - I have thought that for months, and you have seen how the markets have been straight up.

I think we are in for a bearish end of the year.....

Chris
I don't disagree with you at all. But the end of the year is a long way away. And I gotta say, usually the sell-side has had a lot of volume. I'm no bull, but if it's going to go up, I'm going to trade it.

Strangely enough, I'm in these trades because the last year has taught me that the market can and will defy anyone for any amount of time.

Do Fundamentals support my trades?

Not even remotely, but nor did they support the 65% gain there for the taking last year.....yeah....while I kept on shorting.

So I'm just doing what the charts tell me, and at some later date in the future, we'll find out if I was right or not.
  • #9,313
  • Jun 21, 2010 9:56pm Jun 21, 2010 9:56pm
Quoting Low
I don't disagree with you at all. But the end of the year is a long way away. And I gotta say, usually the sell-side has had a lot of volume. I'm no bull, but if it's going to go up, I'm going to trade it.

Strangely enough, I'm in these trades because the last year has taught me that the market can and will defy anyone for any amount of time.

Do Fundamentals support my trades?

Not even remotely, but nor did they support the 65% gain there for the taking last year.....yeah....while I kept on shorting.

So I'm just doing what the charts tell me,...

Too true. The market DOES defy gravity at times.
  • #9,314
  • Jun 21, 2010 10:02pm Jun 21, 2010 10:02pm
Quoting Pipped
I've noticed a few more things in the chart patterns while flipping between timeframes and thought I'd post them here, just in case anyone's interested....

Attachment
I'm short from 1.4900 but looking for retest around 1.4850-900 in the next week or two. It'll be interesting to see how this one plays out:

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I also saw this on GJ:

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  • #9,315
  • Jun 22, 2010 5:06am Jun 22, 2010 5:06am
This 50 level could be one to watch for a bounce and retest of 1.24/5/6?
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Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,316
  • Jun 22, 2010 9:03am Jun 22, 2010 9:03am
Quoting Pipped
I'm short from 1.4900 but looking for retest around 1.4850-900 in the next week or two. It'll be interesting to see how this one plays out:

Attachment

Attachment

I also saw this on GJ:

Attachment

Attachment

I agree that the support are on the gbp/jpy you have marked could be a major event if it give way.
  • #9,317
  • Jun 22, 2010 9:05am Jun 22, 2010 9:05am
Quoting Arfer Daily
This 50 level could be one to watch for a bounce and retest of 1.24/5/6?
It might not retest again. For my money, the bar that printed 3 bars ago - looks like a bearish pin, and it came close enough to testing that line. Also, it's a pretty steep angle - they don't always get a clear retest......

However, if it does, and it holds below the line, that's an even better signal.
  • #9,318
  • Jun 22, 2010 9:20am Jun 22, 2010 9:20am
Quoting clockwork71
It might not retest again. For my money, the bar that printed 3 bars ago - looks like a bearish pin, and it came close enough to testing that line. Also, it's a pretty steep angle - they don't always get a clear retest......

However, if it does, and it holds below the line, that's an even better signal.
It looks better on the daily, I'm on the 4 hour chart to watch for opportunities to add on but I've got two open now so should probably leave it a few days and take a look then. I'd love a break and retest of 1.19 to add on.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,319
  • Jun 22, 2010 11:32am Jun 22, 2010 11:32am
Quoting Maggioz
Hi Folks

George Osborne ( Chancellor) was on TV this morning talking about the Budget on Tues. Looks like there wil be cuts, cuts and more cuts across all sectors.

Anybody have any thoughts on what effect this will have on Sterling?

Maggi
I guess I discovered today the outcome of the budget on GBP/USD
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  • #9,320
  • Jun 22, 2010 11:56am Jun 22, 2010 11:56am
Quoting Maggioz
I guess I discovered today the outcome of the budget on GBP/USD

Don't fret. That 4H trendline is still a sensational place to sell. It will rally back to 1.49 and you can sell it again (as will I).
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