My path to financial freedom

Anyone watching US - Slovenia? Is this game rigged? lol horrible

Yeah got it on in background...good game to watch. Referee in this game and germany game have been very poor. Actually wanted Germany to win...on the basis that hopefully England will win group sure dont want to play Germany in second round!

Come on ! Germany England big fight !!

Just hope US can advance. That was a huge game for them and that official totally screwed them over. I guess I'm hoping you guys can win out now. GL!!!

Decided to close some of my xxx/jpy basket shorts on fridayas felt I was over exposed if we had a gap up...which we did so that was the right decision. Unfortunately I got stung for a few % on gap ups in YMUO and Gold.

Annoyingly one of he shorts I closed was G/AUD...it gapped down over 100 pips!

Things are unusually volatile at New Zealand open...GJ ranged 100 pips in the first hour! I have a UC long, EU and GJ short open and will leave as is until tomorrow morning now.

Looking forward to getting back into the groove and smashing the market for lots of pips this week!

Yeah really annoying. Spent about 8 hours this weekend drawing up plays, and now most of them are invalidated.

I always do my analysis Monday morning for that very reason now!

We are in the zone of heavy confluence on YMUO and EU has had a reaction at its confluenced area too.

Personally I am heavily bearish on YMUO until 10650 at the very highest point with a more realistic expected high of 10510-30 (though I'd prefer not to reach either of these highs obviously) and I'm heavily bearish EU from 1.2465 to 1.2570...we've hit the lower number and reversed already...though YMUO has not gone with it so I'd expect a bounce back up (hopefully so I can load up)....this will form the basis of my trading for the week...selling into strength on YMUO and EU in particular whilst watching for good short setups on the other majors.

Unfortunately I draw up my best plays usually over the weekend. When the market starts to move, I for some reason don't see things as clearly. Need to work on that.
Sounds like a nice plan. I acn see that YM level pretty clear, especially on 4hr. Thinking myself of playing a/u gap thats in play right now. Probably will pass, and wait until later to trade. It is temping though, especially with the YM level you pointed out.

double top with divergence = sell...BE @ FTA.

Equity markets ... specifically FTSE and Dax futures are looking to close the Sunday gap taking EU and GU with them...I'm in EU...only small positions.

the gap has already been closed then bounce at the previous high does that not invalidate the gap trade?

I went short nu just missed TP 7070 due to spread stopped out at BE, got a entry order long EA at 1.4 tp 1,4175

I spoke a while back about demoing a new trading approach to add to my current trading methods. It's not a new method it's just a new way of trading an existing method. It's what I'm calling basket trading i.e. picking a basket of currencies where you expect them all to weaken for a specific reason.

my main focus will be on the mini-dow and mini-S&P futures and trading xxx/usd plus xxx/jpy when I expect a material rise or fall in the equity futures with the best trades being when xxx/usd + xxx/jpy are also at support / resistance levels too.

To a lesser extent I'll also use dax and ftse futures to trade GBP and EUR.

To an even lesser extent I'll also use gold and oil as a guide to currency movements and lastly I'll also occasionally trade majors against each other e.g. if i'm expecting a weak EUR across the board due to technical / fundamental reasons then I will pick a basket of EUR/xxx to short etc.

In terms of risk management I'll use either:

1) fixed lot sizes based on a pre-determined average expected stop distance (i.e. price wouldn't average need to travel this far in order for my reasoning for the trade to be proved incorrect).

3) if there exist more specific technical setups on the currencies in addition to the equities etc then I'll base risk and stops on these setups.

In terms of risk management, I'll trial this trading approach using Oanda and cumulative combined 1% at risk to start with for a trial period. I would expect this to increase to 5-8% if all goes to plan and the trial period is successful. As this type of trading is based on specific confluence factors I'd expect a high win rate - in the region of 80%.


I am also working on developing my knowledge in other areas (I firmly believe being a trade is an ongoing never ending learning experience) in particular learning about VSA, a different approach to fibs and I also want to give some thoughts to Ronald Raygun's Hi-Lo Trader EA which seems very interesting...in fact I want to gradually try and bring some EA's into my asrsenal. I believe that EA's if used correctly can make large returns in a short timeframe...I think the key is knowing in what market conditions a specific EA should be used. Ia slo think some of my existing trading methods can be automated e.g. P&V trading should be relatively straightforward to automate surely? I'm also working on a couple of other projects too so havea very very busy 6-7 months ahead of me but hopefully this will help to add viable alternative trading methods into my toolbox.

In the meantime I could do with getting my account back on track and giving and having a few decent spurts of growth. I spent some time going through my journal and it's clear to me that there is a distinct lack of high quality setups at the moment. PA setups have decreased and the reliability of PA has also decreased since the flash crash and it's been harder to get runners.

The vix is showing volatility decreasing and once we get some clear direction on equity markets at the current confluenced area I hope for some better trading conditions.

Not on my charts they haven't...

Whats the reasoning behind the EA long trade?

I'll take this for 2% if it closes as it is. FTA is very close, I'll move SL down to few pips above left eye if it reaches this area...lets see if it can break the TL and 1.4750 area.

If trading lower timeframes i.e. 5-15min you could have grabbed some pips on EG shorts...there was a high chance that FTSE would bounce @ PPZ and RN of 5300 which would whereas no support on Dax thus you would expect GBP to strengthen against EUR...which it did. Pretty simple eh??

UJ

Perfect! See what I mean about the best IB setups are the ones where price has really wound up and breaks hard and doesnt come back to your entry...these are the ones that really grow your account. This setup is exactly why you gotta have part of your position without a fixed TP...if manual then trade it as your charts tell you...if automated then trailing SL etc.

The entry was perfect too...just above those bars to the left...so you know that it is a proper breakout of the whole area.

It's @ a tough area to break now...but if it does...

Ehhh ! Eh ! Eh!

Booked some profit no original EU short position and added another one ...hopefully a confirmed break of the 1HR TL. A bit of P&V trading here.

I would expect EU shorts to be good until Dax closed its Sunday gap....it's got another 70 pips to go so plenty of space for EU to fall...hopefully it'll drop without any retracements to that level.

FTSE still cant break its 5260 support area = EG continues to fall...a low risk 20 pips was available there so far.

This is the essence of my basket trading...though on a much smaller time scale and slightly over simplified.