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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #16,761
  • Jun 20, 2010 10:39pm Jun 20, 2010 10:39pm
bad bad scout rescued by so much force.

lets see if london has the ump for the rally.
so far seems bid , with the exception that they like cover gaps.
  • #16,762
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:01pm Jun 20, 2010 11:01pm
http://www.onemanga.com/Kekkaishi/237

who says you cant dig it in comics. lol!
  • #16,763
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:14pm Jun 20, 2010 11:14pm
hard to get in sync, there not moving with a purpose, except g/u.
  • #16,764
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:28am Jun 21, 2010 12:28am
Quoting Gro
Only forex option
Options is a different game.

You trade vols not price hor.
  • #16,765
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:30am Jun 21, 2010 12:30am
Quoting lilpip
hard to get in sync, there not moving with a purpose, except g/u.
If you was cash and/ or invwator.
you invest in euro which has much unceratnties and being downgraded to junk asset class,
oR you invest in cable?

that is if you had to buy.
so infact you know what that cross chart is gonna look like
  • #16,766
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:54am Jun 21, 2010 12:54am
Quoting fti
Options is a different game.

You trade vols not price hor.
Chief,

ANytime near future you will share knowledge about options..... i am just curious...

THanks
V
  • #16,767
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:10am Jun 21, 2010 1:10am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Chief,

ANytime near future you will share knowledge about options..... i am just curious...

THanks
V
I don't think so.
This stuff is too cap intensive to be profitable.
Buyers are suckers. Normally pay too much premiums.
To be able to trade options, need ability to write(sell) as well.
and that is too human resource & cap intensive, unless corp. there 's no point going there. Moreover requires agility in creating all sorts of butterflies, with interlocking straddles and strangles.
The peeps have problem with bi-decision trading, options requires engineered synthetics. Beyond the scope of non corp dealers.

regards
  • #16,768
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:16am Jun 21, 2010 1:16am
Quoting fti
I don't think so.
This stuff is too cap intensive to be profitable.
Buyers are suckers. Normally pay too much premiums.
To be able to trade options, need ability to write(sell) as well.
and that is too human resource & cap intensive, unless corp. there 's no point going there. Moreover requires agility in creating all sorts of butterflies, with interlocking straddles and strangles.
The peeps have problem with bi-decision trading, options requires engineered synthetics. Beyond the scope of non corp dealers.

regards

Thanks Chief,

I am recently just browsing around some LEAPS on currency so was curious thats all..

Infact keeping a tab on FXY for like last two month currency options how its prices changes thats all..

THanks
V
  • #16,769
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:19am Jun 21, 2010 1:19am
Quoting fti
Options is a different game.

You trade vols not price hor.
I am the "forex spot"
  • #16,770
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:29am Jun 21, 2010 1:29am
Quoting fti
I don't think so.
This stuff is too cap intensive to be profitable.
...
cap = capital?
corp = corporate?
so, in general, your advice is stay away from options?

Thanks Sir!
  • #16,771
  • Edited 1:51am Jun 21, 2010 1:35am | Edited 1:51am
Quoting supremeChaos
cap = capital?
corp = corporate?
so, in general, your advice is stay away from options?

Thanks Sir!
Options is like insurance.
have actuarial and fair value.
And "fair" is a volatile monster.
Without access to large capital, engineering strategies is an illusion.

the peeps that trades it, cannot even agree on the right pricing models.
With access to large cap, it really doesn't matter,which, really.
They are all incomplete anyway.

Mostly giant corps, they pay the premium , to defrayand hedge the risk of "cost variance" , the dreamers ends up managing that risk, realtime.
Trading in realtime, instead is doing exactly that same thing, only without a guillotine hanging overhead.


regards
  • #16,772
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:46am Jun 21, 2010 1:46am
Quoting fti
Options is like insurance.
have actuarial and fair value.
And "fair" is a volatile monster.
Without access to large capital, engineering strategies is an illusion.

the peeps that trades it, cannot even agree on the right pricing models.
With access to large cap, it really doesn't matter,which, really.
They are all incomplete anyway.

Mostly giant corps, they pay the premium , to defrayand hedge the risk of "cost variance" , the dreamers ends up managing that risk, realtime.

regards
good training, thanks
  • #16,773
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:51am Jun 21, 2010 1:51am
Quoting fti
...
This stuff is too cap intensive to be profitable....
Moreover requires agility...

options requires engineered synthetics. Beyond the scope of non corp dealers.
...
i think it's fair to say that even those with cap (the corp's) still lose a lot of times (o. barriers getting crushed/broken)?

i tried to do a search about "engineered synthetics" & i came up with
this
& then this
looks like it (synthetics) is taking a combination of options positions... & indeed needs agility

sie sie ni
  • #16,774
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:54am Jun 21, 2010 1:54am
Quoting fti
Options is like insurance.
have actuarial and fair value.
And "fair" is a volatile monster.
Without access to large capital, engineering strategies is an illusion.

the peeps that trades it, cannot even ]agree on the right pricing models.

Chief,

Then isnt that a problem that if two things calculated differently for same thing is an innate arbitrage on this...

why i say this.. couple of weeks back when the UJ shot down to 87.xx (for some reason for news) something i was looking at the Call options 100 FXY for Jan 2012 ...it went cheaper like 20%...i am not saying i am predicting....but now it is back like 30% up.... again this is happening many times i see back...e.g.g NFO report mostly for Jan 2011 options

My simple question is

"How can you PREDICT HUMAN MADNESS by using Mathematical equations"

or as per Newton

"I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."


Quote
With access to large cap, it really doesn't matter,which, really.
They are all incomplete anyway.

Mostly giant corps, they pay the premium , to defrayand hedge the risk of "cost variance" , the dreamers ends up managing that risk, realtime.

regards

Chief,

WHo owns the Risk at the End....


e.g. AIG then US people own it at financial crises...


V
PS: this was for my knowledge nothing related to the trading...
  • #16,775
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:58am Jun 21, 2010 1:58am
Quoting supremeChaos
i think it's fair to say that even those with cap (the corp's) still lose a lot of times (o. barriers getting crushed/broken)?

i tried to do a search about "engineered synthetics" & i came up with
this
& then this
looks like it (synthetics) is taking a combination of options positions... & indeed needs agility

[i]sie...
ya .
to a writer time is money. To buyers time is depreciating asset.
As the vectors of risk in options are multi dimensional. The knife is invisible.
This only for corp and financial "specialist", who normally risk OPM( other people's money).

regards
  • #16,776
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:01am Jun 21, 2010 2:01am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Chief,

Then isnt that a problem...
if you have a pot big enough .
You can throw all the risk in and it even itself out. In the process time becomes an asset to you.
You see , the cost of the volitility is paid by both the calls and the puts.
so the premium already covers the risk. Then time premium is just that, an asset to the writer.
  • #16,777
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:02am Jun 21, 2010 2:02am
Quoting fti
ya .
to a writer time is money. To buyers time is depreciating asset.
As the vectors of risk in options are multi dimensional. The knife is invisible.
This only for corp and financial "specialist", who normally risk OPM( other people's money).

regards
nice!
  • #16,778
  • Edited 2:25am Jun 21, 2010 2:11am | Edited 2:25am
Quoting indianguyinny24

Chief,

WHo owns the Risk at the End....


e.g. AIG then US people own it at financial crises...


V
PS: this was for my knowledge nothing related to the trading...
As i all things , ultimately the cost, is borne by the consumers.
If the consumers have no collective voice, they become silent bearers.

So who's bearing the cost of financial instability, caused by errant policies? Ask any old man who had saved all his life. Where has it gone? Silent bearers.

Trivials for the day.
Know whats the difference between a professional and a non professional?
The non get paid only by productivity, The professional get paid even if he fails.
  • #16,779
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:15am Jun 21, 2010 2:15am
Quoting fti
As i all things , ultimately the cost, is borne by the consumers.
If the consumers have no collective voice, they become silent bearers.

So who's bearing the cost of financial instability, caused by errant policies? Ask any old man who had saved all his life. Where has it gone? Silent bearers.

got it chief,


Thanks
V

time for 4 hour sleep then back to office...
  • #16,780
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:27am Jun 21, 2010 2:27am
Good morning Friends,

hope you are all doing well.
Have done some small trading only.
Still not returned to fulltime trading yet.
(but have managed to order my new trading equiptement. Will be delievered in the first week of July. Can't await it ...)

Wish you all the best!
And don't forget - while staying nimble:

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CU,
MaMood
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