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trading forex using Gartley Patterns

  • #101
  • Jun 18, 2010 7:00am Jun 18, 2010 7:00am
a bit precarious, but bought on the second dip down, fingers crossed...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy bull gart m30.gif Size: 37 KB
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #102
  • Jun 18, 2010 7:22am Jun 18, 2010 7:22am
Quoting ChinaWombat
I may have jumped in to early and should have waited for 70 to break, and hope the good support line at 90.55ish holds for a test higher, and an ok looking bull candle.... it's Friday so may just fizzle out. If no major move before NY lunch will sq and start again next week, ratio's look good, x-b=.78, x-d=1.27
Hi Chinawombat,

I'm also in for this pair @90.60, I like it because it is a 61.8% (@90.50) retracement on the last swing high/low 92.9/89.00 and upward trendline touch. However, the upside may be restricted by the downward trendline @91.50ish which formed a daily triangular pattern.


Regards,
Toyogo
  • #103
  • Jun 18, 2010 11:50am Jun 18, 2010 11:50am
Quoting ChinaWombat
Boris Schlossberg is on CNBC bullish the AUDUSD up so that should help your bear scenario play out...
  • #104
  • Jun 19, 2010 1:05am Jun 19, 2010 1:05am
Quoting toyogo00
Hi Chinawombat,

I'm also in for this pair @90.60, I like it because it is a 61.8% (@90.50) retracement on the last swing high/low 92.9/89.00 and upward trendline touch. However, the upside may be restricted by the downward trendline @91.50ish which formed a daily triangular pattern.


Regards,
Toyogo
Hi Toyogo,

My best wishes for pips for you. I sq'd up everything at NY lunch and will start again Monday. The uj and gj had some nice pips which more than covered the nz loss. There has been some good range trading opportunities with Garts, b-fly's and bats on the major pairs and crosses over last few weeks. I've had tp3's (1.618) done less frequently but the s/r reverses have made up for that. So have to be nimble if patterns start turning bearish above 91.20.
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #105
  • Jun 19, 2010 1:16am Jun 19, 2010 1:16am
Quoting queenfx
Hi QueenFx, Many thanks for initiating this thread. I think we will all benefit knowledge and pip wise for it.

On another thread you mentioned that you had experienced 85% success rate with using Gartley. Is there any way that you can clarify how you come to this? My success rate is significantly less, but it is definitely my preferred trading strategy, and keeps me profitable month after month.

A successful Gart, b-fly,bat for me is a return to approx point A, and if can get 1.26 A-D and 1.62 A-D then that is a nice bonus. I think I'm around 50% on success rate but when TP1 at A can be 2-4 times the risk then it's still very effective.

I'm wondering if a more conservative TP style of .38,.61,1.0 X-D might work. Unfortunately I'm not a tech or programer so have to do this with back testing visuals which as you know aren't very effective.

Just wondering how you quantify "success".
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #106
  • Jun 19, 2010 1:21am Jun 19, 2010 1:21am
Hi China

I have the same ZUP indicator as yours but it doesn't seem to make the gartleys as it's doing for you....would you be kind enough to let me know the settings or possibly share your indicator with the correct settings? thanks in advance.

Regards

Ali

Quoting ChinaWombat
Hi Toyogo,

My best wishes for pips for you. I sq'd up everything at NY lunch and will start again Monday. The uj and gj had some nice pips which more than covered the nz loss. There has been some good range trading opportunities with Garts, b-fly's and bats on the major pairs and crosses over last few weeks. I've had tp3's (1.618) done less frequently but the s/r reverses have made up for that. So have to be nimble if patterns start turning bearish above 91.20.
Raza
  • #107
  • Jun 19, 2010 2:01am Jun 19, 2010 2:01am
New here,
Hello all! Great thread!

Looking at this, how do you feel about the first downward move in the beginning of pattern?

Possible negation? Meaning perhaps the first low traded down to 8100, Next solid candle low traded again to 8100 area with mild buying,
Last low, 8100 area yet again, thus I am looking at a "potential" double bottom scenario leaving out the first low, the latter 2 establishing the potential bottom,
Next producing a 500 appx pip move up.

What I am looking at now for Aussie/ Greenback is a solid breach and hold of 8700 to confirm this pattern (double bottom) and move further up to test .9000

regardless - love Gartleys! Sometimes these "quirks" in patterns are insignificant, others valid.


Quoting ChinaWombat
I may have jumped in to early and should have waited for 70 to break, and hope the good support line at 90.55ish holds for a test higher, and an ok looking bull candle.... it's Friday so may just fizzle out. If no major move before NY lunch will sq and start again next week, ratio's look good, x-b=.78, x-d=1.27
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #108
  • Jun 19, 2010 6:47am Jun 19, 2010 6:47am
Quoting ChinaWombat
Hi QueenFx, Many thanks for initiating this thread. I think we will all benefit knowledge and pip wise for it.

On another thread you mentioned that you had experienced 85% success rate with using Gartley. Is there any way that you can clarify how you come to this? My success rate is significantly less, but it is definitely my preferred trading strategy, and keeps me profitable month after month.

A successful Gart, b-fly,bat for me is a return to approx point A, and if can get 1.26 A-D and 1.62 A-D then that is a nice bonus....
Hi Queenfx, Chinawombat,

One of the measurement is to use number of win/loss trade which I don't think it is accurate at all.

I'm more interested in number pips on the winning trades versus the losing trades in total. You may have 5 wins and 5 losses but if the reward ratio is more than 1, then you are still positive in pips!

Thus I think Gartley has a very good winning percentage but it is how one can optimize the profit target as usually the stop loss is predetermined but it is very difficult to control the profit target p1, p2, p3...

For example: EURUSD with 2 std lots, USD10/pip. SL = 50pips, P1=50pips, p2=100pips,

Total loss = 2 x 10 x 50 = USD1,000
P1 = 1 x 10 x 50 = USD 500
p2 = 1 x 10 x 100 = USD 1,000
Total profit = USD1,500 or a reward ratio of only 1.5

If P1 hit but P2 stopped out at break even, then total profit only USD500 and the reward ratio is only 0.5. Unfortunately it always be the case, thus if one have more wins then losses (6 x 500 = 3,000 wins and 4 x 1000 = 4,000 losses) then the net result is still negative!


Regards,
Toyogo
  • #109
  • Jun 20, 2010 6:31am Jun 20, 2010 6:31am
Quoting shr5
Hi China

I have the same ZUP indicator as yours but it doesn't seem to make the gartleys as it's doing for you....would you be kind enough to let me know the settings or possibly share your indicator with the correct settings? thanks in advance.

Regards

Ali
here you go...I also use KorHarmonic's (which you can download from his website). It tends to use up a lot more of my laptop's processing capacity compared to ZUP (freezes screens a lot but shouldn't be a problem if using an average PC) so ZUP is easier for me to flick through the periods. But as with all indicators, they're a guide only so you should (have to!) do a manual confirmation as well.

I also only look back around 800 periods to help reduce the calculation time
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ZUP_v82.mq4   360 KB | 1,077 downloads
File Type: mq4 WRR_ZUP_INFO_v02.mq4   28 KB | 893 downloads
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #110
  • Jun 20, 2010 8:52pm Jun 20, 2010 8:52pm
@ QueenFX

I'm not clever enough to construct an 8 hour chart but it seems to fill the basic criteria and would look for a candle confirmation before entering. Unfortunately I can't support it from a daily viewpoint, and if it does turn out to be a bearish BAT then we may have better strategic level to sell above .9180. Interestingly is the .618 retrace of XA at .8845 which could negate the pattern. The 4hour give support with a Bearish BAT nice spike up, and now a solid bear candle in process but have to wait another 3 hours for it to confirm, and s/l above the high.

@ Xtrade. the bullish butterfly from .8100ish (which is what i'm thinking you're talking about) is nearly at it's 1.618 at .8846 so not quite sure why your looking for a bullish gart to get you to .9000. As you can see from the daily XA .618 is at .8845, and 4H ext 1.61 at .8846 I would check the price reaction at that point of confluence. Before getting bullish AU you should wait for for the 4 hour bear bat to play out, you could better levels to buy. Can't see any gartley formation at the moment to support a case to .9000 but that can always change...http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au d1.gif Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au h4 bear bat.gif Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au h4.gif Size: 31 KB
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #111
  • Jun 20, 2010 10:42pm Jun 20, 2010 10:42pm
Hi guys, check this one out, my zup now is showing daily bearish Gartley on pound/usd, which confirms in a way my last week GFT gartley on 8 hour chart. Want see how it'll play out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6-21-2010 4-39-05 AMbearishgartley#69.png Size: 36 KB
  • #112
  • Jun 20, 2010 10:52pm Jun 20, 2010 10:52pm
Hi,

There is a possible 4hrly bearish gartley on AUDUSD at 0.618 of XA leg @0.8838. However, the AUDUSD is now in a very strong up trend and that resistance could be broken easily. Thus I am very cautious about shorting this pair - should wait for some LL LH price action for confirmation!


Regards,
Toyogo
Attached Image
  • #113
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:19pm Jun 20, 2010 11:19pm
I've got a nice bullish bat on $CHF (which I'll admit isn't one of my favourite currencies) via KOR. The monday morning gap open pin bar helps support a long position. I'm a bit more conservative with the s/l until we start to see some move higher. Will go to BE+1 when TP1 gets done. With the Queens bearish GBP possibly we are nearing the end of the $ correction?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $chf h4 bull bat.gif Size: 34 KB
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #114
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:29pm Jun 20, 2010 11:29pm
Quoting ChinaWombat
I've got a nice bullish bat on $CHF (which I'll admit isn't one of my favourite currencies) via KOR. The monday morning gap open pin bar helps support a long position. I'm a bit more conservative with the s/l until we start to see some move higher. Will go to BE+1 when TP1 gets done. With the Queens bearish GBP possibly we are nearing the end of the $ correction?
I would say I'd cross my fingers LOL but I never do it in forex, only knowledge and indicators
  • #115
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:32pm Jun 20, 2010 11:32pm
We are also reaching weekly trendline on pound/usd hope it'll form point D for us. Bars show it better.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6-21-2010 5-31-32 AMpoundweeklytrendline.png Size: 58 KB
  • #116
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:16am Jun 21, 2010 12:16am
Quoting queenfx
We are also reaching weekly trendline on pound/usd hope it'll form point D for us. Bars show it better.
Hi Queenfx,

We all know that the GBPUSD daily is forming a bearish gartley - it is a matter of how to determine the point "D" which could be 100-200 pips difference! see here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...5&postcount=98

tough job!

Regards,
Toyogo
  • #117
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:20am Jun 21, 2010 12:20am
Totally agree.
  • #118
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:47am Jun 21, 2010 2:47am
Let's see if we can grab a few quick pips on the downside to get the week off to a good start...http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu h1 bear bfly.gif Size: 38 KB
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #119
  • Jun 21, 2010 5:11am Jun 21, 2010 5:11am
Quoting toyogo00
Hi Chinawombat,

I'm also in for this pair @90.60, I like it because it is a 61.8% (@90.50) retracement on the last swing high/low 92.9/89.00 and upward trendline touch. However, the upside may be restricted by the downward trendline @91.50ish which formed a daily triangular pattern.


Regards,
Toyogo
Hi,

Too tight on stop loss - only 30pips @90.30, it hit it @90.28 before shooting up @91.36 which suppose to be my P1. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif

A winning pattern needs a good money management!http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif

Regards,
Toyogo
  • #120
  • Jun 21, 2010 5:33am Jun 21, 2010 5:33am
Quoting toyogo00
Hi,

Too tight on stop loss - only 30pips @90.30, it hit it @90.28 before shooting up @91.36 which suppose to be my P1. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif

A winning pattern needs a good money management!http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif

Regards,
Toyogo
sorry to hear that... I thought you were looking pretty good. Yes, the mm is critical and that's why generally I'm happy to square up on Fridays at NY lunchtime and start again Monday (unless I'm well up in a winning position, and at be+1). Mental energy gets a nice recharge as well!

I've sold nzdusd again (it will be the death of me!http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif) which I feel bad about especially as they had such a great game against Italy, and as usual the boys in blue can only cheat and draw false penalties to draw the game.

Looking to sell ej as well if it breaks under the H1 pin bar...
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
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