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Amyc Trade Journal

  • #601
  • Edited Jun 20, 2010 12:19am Jun 19, 2010 10:58pm | Edited Jun 20, 2010 12:19am
US indicies look like they should continue up over the next 2 weeks. The lack of selling around the highs last week shows the lack of bearishness at the moment.
I have been accumulating Sept and Dec contract S&P longs last week around the 1102-1106 area. These are contracts that I want to hold for the longterm. This week I will put more long orders at 1089 but I'm not sure if these will get hit. As long as price doesn't trade below 1089 then it's bullish.
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  • #602
  • Jun 20, 2010 12:46am Jun 20, 2010 12:46am
Dollar index

The dollar has been retracing off the yearly highs for the last 2 weeks, it is getting close to where I thought it might stop but now I am rethinking that as charts show it possibly has a bit lower to go yet.

The daily chart for this week, (not shown) shows price should keep moving down into 85.4, if this happens then there is going to be a 0.8 range bar close below the lows, (LH chart), price would find it difficult to move back inside the lows and would probably continue down for another 0.8 bar.

The chart on the right is monthly and shows the retrace down from the yearly highs at 88.5, the most logical support would be the yellow Q3 midpoint currently at 84.91.
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  • #603
  • Jun 20, 2010 6:16pm Jun 20, 2010 6:16pm
S&P is back up into the weekly highs already this week, if this continues up from here then I will feel very confident that it's not going back down.
It could just spend the rest of the week hanging around the highs like last week though. My longs are looking very good at the moment.
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  • #604
  • Jun 20, 2010 7:01pm Jun 20, 2010 7:01pm
If at midnight NY time on Sunday the S&P is trading above 1120 then it should continue up during Mondays session into 1133. This will put it above the weekly highs. If this happens the chances of it making a lower low this year are very slim. These are the patterns of a market that has put in a bottom.
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  • #605
  • Jun 20, 2010 7:45pm Jun 20, 2010 7:45pm
The retrace I mentioned I was looking for on AU over the weekend doesn't look like it will happen. As long as price is above 8766 this week then it's not going down.
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  • #606
  • Jun 20, 2010 8:52pm Jun 20, 2010 8:52pm
Picked up some more au longs at 8753, sl at be
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  • #607
  • Jun 20, 2010 10:34pm Jun 20, 2010 10:34pm
hi amy
witch zone EU and AU has closed last week , and in witch zone it has opened this week .
just checking if i am doing it the right way . without using Fibonacci trader platform .
thanks
samer
  • #608
  • Jun 20, 2010 10:37pm Jun 20, 2010 10:37pm
Quoting samer960
hi amy
witch zone EU and AU has closed last week , and in witch zone it has opened this week .
just checking if i am doing it the right way . without using Fibonacci trader platform .
thanks
samer
Hi Samer

What do you mean by which zone?
  • #609
  • Jun 20, 2010 10:47pm Jun 20, 2010 10:47pm
I mean the high probability Fibonacci zone .
the daily fibo zone , this is the concept described in the pdf ( high probability Fibonacci zone analysis)
thanks

Quoting amyc
Hi Samer

What do you mean by which zone?
  • #610
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:00pm Jun 20, 2010 11:00pm
Quoting samer960
I mean the high probability Fibonacci zone .
the daily fibo zone , this is the concept described in the pdf ( high probability Fibonacci zone analysis)
thanks
AU

Chart on the left shows 4hr zones, because of the close above 8764 price should now head to 8867 on Monday. Chart on the right shows weekly zones, price is currently above them so shorts are lower probability this week. I am holding longs and am going to exit if price gets to 8867, but I won't be shorting here because of the weekly breakout.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #611
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:04pm Jun 20, 2010 11:04pm
EU

Left hand chart 4 hr zones, right hand chart weekly zones. I don't have any trades on EU currently, since price has already been to the weekly highs this week it is hard for me to take a long on this pair unless it started trading above the highs.

But based on the left hand chart I would like to see price come back down into the green midpoints before it moves up further, probably isn't going to happen though.
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  • #612
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:05pm Jun 20, 2010 11:05pm
thank you amy .


Quoting amyc
AU

Chart on the left shows 4hr zones, because of the close above 8764 price should now head to 8867 on Monday. Chart on the right shows weekly zones, price is currently above them so shorts are lower probability this week. I am holding longs and am going to exit if price gets to 8867, but I won't be shorting here because of the weekly breakout.
  • #613
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:10pm Jun 20, 2010 11:10pm
Quoting amyc
If at midnight NY time on Sunday the S&P is trading above 1120 then it should continue up during Mondays session into 1133. This will put it above the weekly highs. If this happens the chances of it making a lower low this year are very slim. These are the patterns of a market that has put in a bottom.
Got the close I was after, the S&P should move up into 1133 on Monday. Lets wait and see where Monday closes, above 1127 is very bullish.
  • #614
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:15pm Jun 20, 2010 11:15pm
Quoting samer960
I mean the high probability Fibonacci zone .
the daily fibo zone , this is the concept described in the pdf ( high probability Fibonacci zone analysis)
thanks
Hi Samer,

I believe Amy's methodolody doesn't use the HPFZ analysis, its derived from that. She only uses the .50 fib and .618 fib. And her probability analysis is in her head by eyeballing the charts and her pattern analysis is very detailed!!!

I have to re-read and review her posts to undersand her process!
  • #615
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:23pm Jun 20, 2010 11:23pm
hi
the concept use 50 and 618 too to create the SR BANDS .
i went there to learn this to try to understand the way she think . i didnt say she is using this concept alone . I trade mainly daily chart with SR and PA . but i like what i see here and i can guess the potential of what she is doing
we keep learning .
happy trading
samer



Quoting epeks
Hi Samer,

I believe Amy's methodolody doesn't use the HPFZ analysis, its derived from that. She only uses the .50 fib and .618 fib. And her probability analysis is in her head by eyeballing the charts and her pattern analysis is very detailed!!!

I have to re-read and review her posts to undersand her process!
  • #616
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:26pm Jun 20, 2010 11:26pm
Quoting epeks
Hi Samer,

I believe Amy's methodolody doesn't use the HPFZ analysis, its derived from that. She only uses the .50 fib and .618 fib. And her probability analysis is in her head by eyeballing the charts and her pattern analysis is very detailed!!!

I have to re-read and review her posts to undersand her process!
Hi epeks that is spot on what you say.

The HPFZ analysis gives identical figures to mine for the weekly, monthly and quarterly targets as long as you are using just the ranges for the previous period which I do. But for the 4hr charts which are based on the previous 5 days data then it is different.
  • #617
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:30pm Jun 20, 2010 11:30pm
Quoting epeks
Hi Samer,


I have to re-read and review her posts to undersand her process!
One other thing is the methodology is still developing, I notice new patterns in the data all the time that i am testing for usefullness, so if you come across anything that you think is usefull to the methodology please feel free to post it.
  • #618
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:27am Jun 21, 2010 12:27am
Quoting samer960
hi
the concept use 50 and 618 too to create the SR BANDS .
i went there to learn this to try to understand the way she think . i didnt say she is using this concept alone . I trade mainly daily chart with SR and PA . but i like what i see here and i can guess the potential of what she is doing
we keep learning .
happy trading
samer
Hi Samer,

Just excited that someone also read the journal and ask the same question to Amy. hehe...
  • #619
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:32am Jun 21, 2010 12:32am
Quoting amyc
One other thing is the methodology is still developing, I notice new patterns in the data all the time that i am testing for usefullness, so if you come across anything that you think is usefull to the methodology please feel free to post it.

Thanks, Amy. If i see something, I'll let you know.

I am still studying this, specially how to read the range bar chart. I still have R.08 - R014 - D and notice that you compare this with your 4H Chart to determine the entry.
  • #620
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:49am Jun 21, 2010 1:49am
Quoting epeks
Thanks, Amy. If i see something, I'll let you know.

I am still studying this, specially how to read the range bar chart. I still have R.08 - R014 - D and notice that you compare this with your 4H Chart to determine the entry.
Hi epeks

The range bar chart does give good entries but what I like most about it is that it filters out the bad ones, for example at the moment au is coming up to Mondays highs at 8867 but looking at the 80 pip range bar chart the completion of the next bar is pointing to 8903 so we know that the likelihood of 8867 being a solid line of resistance is not high.
Price should continue up into 8903. If this results in a daily close above 8867 then it will continue up tomorrow. So shorting up here is a low probability trade, unless you are just after a few pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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