Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

A/U

Oh, man, are you serious? I was just thinking this market is so going up tonight/tomorrow. I must be the most useless gambler with a knowledge of forex on this earth Now I'm going to have to re-assess my charts.

Dont worry, there is a good chance that you are right.

It seems it has difficulty clearing the fib 50 and previous S>R, div (like a 3 drive pattern) is in place, U/Cad is not making a new low.Indicies are getting R at 55 ema daily. But all could be wrong, the market mode is bullish, so any short can be brunt easily. Even if it drops it will be bought around .85-550

Hi tradoholic
What does your astrological technique say about the DOW? up or down?

I've taken a short on GBP/JPY @ 134.75

My target medium term target is 132. and longer term is 129.
I'm letting it run until wednesday 23rd. with a stop @ 135.77

I'm sharing this with you because I notice this pair has negative correlation with gold... so via that correlation, I am taking an opposite trade to yours on gold.. hmm.

Hi there,
Please note that, we dont post any trade calls here without posting a chart.That's the rule of this thread.

Yeah, I was just going on general bullishness. I was thinking E/U maybe a daily pivot touch then end the week around R1 (1.2450). I thought A/U, G/U and A/J were good to go for 100 odd pips up from current levels (even if we have a slight dip tonight). These are all all based on average weekly ranges. Not sure about U/J though because that puts a fly in the ointment if we've had the high then we should end the week around 90.00. Sentiment has flipped to long USD/JPY as well. I was just going to buy any dips on A/J this evening - now I've got your A/U chart imprinted on my brain.

Ohhh, I've just checked that Wall Street Direction website and it's saying indices are going down tomorrow - dang http://www.wallstreetsdirection.com/signal.htm Think I'll go to bed
instead - it's been a good week - now I'm confused

Better post sentiment index before I snooze ...

SSI: A Jump in Volatility Leads Retail Traders to Fight USDJPY’s Attempt at Trend Development
Thursday, 17 Jun 2010 19:39 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.24 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.07 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 18.4% higher than yesterday and 15.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.1% lower than yesterday and 7.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.7% stronger than yesterday and 30.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.49 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.40 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.8% lower than yesterday and 7.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.2% higher than yesterday and 19.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.3% weaker than yesterday and 10.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.51 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.13 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 12.8% lower than yesterday and 2.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 16.5% higher than yesterday and 15.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.8% stronger than yesterday and 9.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.14 as 53% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.1% higher than yesterday and 15.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.7% lower than yesterday and 10.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.6% weaker than yesterday and 11.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.41 as nearly 71% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.31 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 25.5% higher than yesterday and 44.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 31.9% lower than yesterday and 23.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.6% stronger than yesterday and 23.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.48 as nearly 71% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.69 as 73% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.1% lower than yesterday and 3.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.8% lower than yesterday and 1.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 12.2% weaker than yesterday and 9.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.90 as nearly 66% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.49 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 12.6% lower than yesterday and 2.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 11.2% higher than yesterday and 5.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.6% stronger than yesterday and 26.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -2.31 as nearly 70% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.79 as 64% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.7% lower than yesterday and 3.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 16.6% higher than yesterday and 47.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.2% stronger than yesterday and 25.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

Short E/U, Daily chart @ 3:00 pm PST

1.2384

SL 30
TP 40

Reason:

Stochs oversold
S/R, R hit reverse

Ok, here it is.
Not sure how to get a high quality print screen on my mt4 chart. If anybody can tell me, great.. I will post better charts in the future.

Thanks for the heads up!

hi guys
looks like gbpusd going to reach suitable price for sell
let see what will happen

#424

Hi shahab8b

I am unable to post on the thread that you and Geppy Created. Is it possible if you could email me Geppy email address . thanks

Check out the website on his profile.

Hi Patience,

Yes I find it much more relaxing and stress free. I also start with 1-2 micro lots and if I have a strong conviction or a strong bias, I can scale in later on for no more than 5 micro lots.

Helps me great deal.

How are you travelling this week? This week has been quite boring and felt more like a chop shop.

At the moment I have only 1 short position open in Gold from 1255. Apart from that I am pretty much flat in currencies. will wait for next week for some interesting set-ups.

Have a great weekend.

Hey Puks - Hmmmmm, bit of a write-off today in the market - nothing of any substance. Didn't have any important news to throw into the mix and spice it up a bit. Good idea to go to micro until you feel comfortable to up your position sizes. It definitely helped me - started big, then back to small then slowly edging it back up there. It's definitely scalpers' paradise so great for me. Swing/position traders must be pulling their hair out. You might have to get your scalping skills out for the next few months.

You have a great weekend too.

HI there,
Long term I an bullish with the DOW, I expect one large drop, this could happen on 13 July. Choppy till sept, and all the way up from Jan 18th. I wouldny go Long yet or if I do I will have tight SL. This is purely on astrological charts of US Markets.
In general a weekly close of over 10299 should bring investors out next week. Thats why am not taking any trades on DOW at the moment. ( contradicting stories between my Astro charts and Technical).
I like Shahab's statement "Caustiously Bullish"

With you on this Agrees wirh my Astro charts perfect. Will start loading shorts from 1:30 PM Monday, ( sydney Time)

Well sentiment is pointing to general US$ weakness across the board but don't forget to trade your charts. This is not the holy grail

SSI: GBPUSD One of a Few Active Pairs Amongst the Retail Crowd with Shorts Dropping 19%
Friday, 18 Jun 2010 20:29 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.23 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.61 as 62% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.5% higher than yesterday and 14.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 19.2% lower than yesterday and 28.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.8% weaker than yesterday and 1.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.33 as nearly 57% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.48 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.1% higher than yesterday and 5.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.6% lower than yesterday and 20.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.2% weaker than yesterday and 7.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.21 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.14 as 53% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.0% higher than yesterday and 7.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.9% lower than yesterday and 23.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.2% stronger than yesterday and 10.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.21 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.17 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.3% higher than yesterday and 31.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 10.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.8% stronger than yesterday and 29.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.37 as nearly 70% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.46 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.1% lower than yesterday and 105.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.6% higher than yesterday and 19.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.1% weaker than yesterday and 24.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.92 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.43 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.9% higher than yesterday and 24.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.8% lower than yesterday and 2.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.5% stronger than yesterday and 16.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.70 as nearly 63% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.78 as 64% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.8% higher than yesterday and 9.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 22.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.2% weaker than yesterday and 25.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -2.42 as nearly 71% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.24 as 69% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.3% lower than yesterday and 12.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 44.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.1% weaker than yesterday and 18.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

USDX Daily

Hi shahab8b,

Great analysis you are doing.

I don't know if someone already ask you - how do you draw your red arrows on MT4 charts(is there an indicator)?

Thanks.

COT report came out showing a massive record change in the weekly net shorts showing lots of short covering durng the move up. This likely means Euro may have topped out of it's current bullish move and will start the decline again.

Have to look further into the COT report for the others and commodities...