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Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #1,601
  • Jun 18, 2010 10:28am Jun 18, 2010 10:28am
Quoting coolshades
guys (and ladies if there are any on this thread)

what rules do you have for Dan's system? from Zoli's posts i noted that most of us follow the system but we trade very differently.

does it make sense for us to share rules, not necessarily to trade to a common set of rules but to understand how each one of us trades and if necessary take the good bits from one another?

i am more than happy to go first if this is of interest to anyone.
EUR and GBP start to fall, maybe its long covering because this is friday? i still have my GBP short open.
Coolshade, i am also waiting for the counter TL to be broken the retest it for taking another short on EUR and AUD
  • #1,602
  • Jun 18, 2010 10:37am Jun 18, 2010 10:37am
what price are you in on cable and what sl?

Quoting carrot_yuli
EUR and GBP start to fall, maybe its long covering because this is friday? i still have my GBP short open.
Coolshade, i am also waiting for the counter TL to be broken the retest it for taking another short on EUR and AUD
  • #1,603
  • Jun 18, 2010 2:22pm Jun 18, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting MktScape
Hi Dan,
Good to know that VSA trading method has appealed you .... i think VSA trading on a smaller time frame is a viable strategy. I have listened to Tom Williams seminars and he used S/R areas with VSA strategy and they only look to place a trade only after detecting professional activity (i.e. ultra high volume on wide spread bar) and getting PA confirmation as compared to vol activity or near the S/R zones.
The best source for Forex volume is eSignal as it has the broadest list of contributor however as per my research FXCM Mt4 tick volume...
Hi,

Thanks for the info... I am currently using the Better Vol indicator and so far it has been quite useful however I am interested in using eSignal for a better overall picture. Is their Volume indicator part of the standard package or is it an extra?

I have always been interested in watching the markets work and how certain patterns show the way... the addition of VSA to this approach helps me understand better how the markets are moving. I realise that VSA is about more than one candle but it has also helped clarify why certain patterns work sometimes and not at others... take the much loved "pin bar" - with the addition of VSA it is much easier to predict which ones are most likely to work and which aren't. Hope that makes sense!

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,604
  • Jun 18, 2010 2:24pm Jun 18, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting zoli
Hi Dan, I think that is a good idea. I would also point out that intraday Volume data is fine, but I would be VERY careful with the 4H and Daily data. That has to come from prof data feed. CSI Marktet or esignal cool.

I am tryin to learn the same method what MtkSpace outlined from Tom Williams.
Hi,

Thanks... actually that is something I noticed - my intraday analysis using VSA has been working quite well but I have also occasionally tried to use it in conjunction with my longer term work and it doesn't seem to help!

Perhaps if I invest in eSignal this might change?

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,605
  • Jun 18, 2010 2:27pm Jun 18, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting coolshades
Commander - be kind enough to share your intraday with us!
Hi Coolshades,

Ok, well here it is (so far): http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=310 but I don't think you're gonna like it (15m candles can be seen)!!!

Good plan with the Cleggster by the way!! Did you by any chance catch Question Time last night? Chris Huhne... man that guys seems like such a drip!!

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,606
  • Jun 18, 2010 3:27pm Jun 18, 2010 3:27pm
Quoting Intensity
My best trades are trends running counter to higher time-frame trends. Most of the time it's a nice vertical move.
So you like to counter trend trade eh! Would you care to elaborate on your strategy or is it top secret!

Regards,

Dan

PS... Coolshades, is this you: ?
  • #1,607
  • Jun 18, 2010 5:00pm Jun 18, 2010 5:00pm
loving the intraday stuff dan, i heard also esignal is the best for fx data. Probably because it has the most sources of getting the volume data from.

I have just starting using fx futures volume after reading many people thinking it is a good way to get a accurate volume reading. I think with the longer term volume approach it can take ages for stuff to happen. Like if u see accumulation happening it can take months of prices falling still before it turns up for example. but i am sure with better volume it will help heaps
  • #1,608
  • Jun 19, 2010 12:43am Jun 19, 2010 12:43am
no sir!

Quoting DanUK
So you like to counter trend trade eh! Would you care to elaborate on your strategy or is it top secret!

Regards,

Dan

PS... Coolshades, is this you: ?
  • #1,609
  • Jun 19, 2010 3:35am Jun 19, 2010 3:35am
Quoting coolshades
folks, my go at my daily system. i had posted 2 wks back that the daily is new for me. till then i was trading the h4.

[list][*]open daily[*]draw horizontal s/r levels. s/r levels should be those where there are more than a few touches up and down OR touches where reactions have been extreme[*]adjust key s/r levels to RNs (only 00 and 50)[*]draw sloping trendlines touching highs or lows. TLs should have atleast 3 touches[*]identify long term trend[*]identify most recent high and low and draw 50% fib in direction of long term trend[*]go...
Very robust rules you have there

Just to clarify on your entries...if for example considering a short you wait for price to retrace back to the 50% level / round number / PPZ and for it to close below that level (i.e. to confirm that the resistance has held) but do you then just enter on the daily close below this level or are you waiting for it to go down to the next RN e.g. of 50% fib happened to coincide with a RN you wait for a daily close below this level but not sure what you entry point is...is it the next RN on the way down?

Foe example...EU chart attached...1.2450 area is a monthly,weekly, daily PPZ area...50% retracement (50% of most recent swing has been broken)...thus will you wait for price to reach this area and close below it once it's touched the confluence before considering an entry? Then where will you be looking to entry...the next round number down i.e. 1.2400?



Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,610
  • Jun 19, 2010 3:44am Jun 19, 2010 3:44am
I know what your mean but I am just taking the lead from the commander, he uses 1% per 100 pips so a 400SL would be 4% of his account. Again I am still finding the best fit for me so time will tell.


Quoting coolshades
you and me bro. may last week to this week has not been pleasant.

as a friendly advice, you shd relook at your 4% risk per trade. from the maths point of view:

suppose you are trading a $10k account, 4% equates to $400 = 400 pips.

so if one trade loses 400 points, you need to make 400 points to get to break even.

thats a huge move required and requires trades to be kept on for days and days and days needs the trades to go in the same direction to make sure you have no ulcers.



y
  • #1,611
  • Jun 19, 2010 6:08am Jun 19, 2010 6:08am
LJ you embarass me. these rules are pretty new because the daily is something i have started trading just a couple of weeks back and those weeks havent gone well.

however to get back to your q:

if prices goes upto 2450 and closes ABOVE, i will wait for a daily to close BELOW 2450 and THEN take an entry once the next subsequent candle retraces towards 2450.

if i am not around to monitor the trade i might set a limit order at 2450, but if i am around, i will try take trade as close to 2450 , howeverl will also allow for a 20-30 pips room. so will also take trades at 2430-2420.

if the daily pierces 2450 but closes below 2450 with say about 50 pips or more below 2450, then i will take a sell on a retrace to 2450 again on the rules mentioned above.

if the daily closes below 2450 with no contact with 2450, then its a wait and watch.

Quoting lovejoy80
Very robust rules you have there

Just to clarify on your entries...if for example considering a short you wait for price to retrace back to the 50% level / round number / PPZ and for it to close below that level (i.e. to confirm that the resistance has held) but do you then just enter on the daily close below this level or are you waiting for it to go down to the next RN...
  • #1,612
  • Jun 19, 2010 6:09am Jun 19, 2010 6:09am
Bez i am pretty sure commander stops amount to no more than 2 oe at most 3% of his account.

commander?

Quoting bez3000
I know what your mean but I am just taking the lead from the commander, he uses 1% per 100 pips so a 400SL would be 4% of his account. Again I am still finding the best fit for me so time will tell.
  • #1,613
  • Jun 19, 2010 6:22am Jun 19, 2010 6:22am
Quoting bez3000
I know what your mean but I am just taking the lead from the commander, he uses 1% per 100 pips so a 400SL would be 4% of his account. Again I am still finding the best fit for me so time will tell.
Hi guys,

Just wanted to note that if you are following my daily trading method don't forget that holding and adding to winning positions is a very important part of the strategy.

With regards to risk - putting 4% on an intraday trade might be very risky but on the longer term timeframes, assuming you are trading from the right places, it is much less of a worry... mainly because if you do f*** up then it's going to take a lot longer to blow your account from a daily perspective - unless you are trading blind or carelessly!

The best way to trade the dailies is to use key support and resistance levels... something I didn't do with my last EU trade! And if you feel more comfortable waiting for PA to confirm then that is fine too!

Now, EU is heading into a key level at 1.2450/1.2500 - this is where I will be looking to trade next. But note that if this level breaks we could be looking at a trend change... PA will be the key to seeing that.

My daily strategy of buy/sell and hold is much less profitable if you get into trades half way through the trend... now I'm not saying chase tops and bottoms but you must be aware of long term trend changes.

If we see a change of trend I will be liquidating my current EU positions and start building long positions. If that happens and anyone following this strategy does the same you should see some really good results (over the) that will allow you to forget the last couple of weeks pretty quick! Assuming of course, that we analyse things correctly.

The thing with this strategy is that you will be wrong from time to time... particularly at times when the trend might change but you should make up for it when you are right. One famous trader said something along similar lines... but I forget who it was and exactly what he said!!

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,614
  • Jun 19, 2010 6:25am Jun 19, 2010 6:25am
Quoting coolshades
Bez i am pretty sure commander stops amount to no more than 2 oe at most 3% of his account.

commander?
Yes, typically I will go in for around 2.5% on my first trade but I would consider using a little more if I felt it appropriate... initial R:R in the long term, when adding in the way I do, is not as important as it would be if I were taking a trade and then closing it at a target and then taking a new trade etc.

Hope that makes some sense!!

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,615
  • Jun 19, 2010 6:36am Jun 19, 2010 6:36am
"My daily strategy of buy/sell and hold is much less profitable if you get into trades half way through the trend"

this is SO IMPORTANT. I was thinking of mentioning this a week or so back but then i realised i always come across negative on these threads.

i am undecided whether the downtrend will resume or is at its fag end now.. but assuming the latter, those who are building long term positions short, are unlikely to replicate the pyramiding success that commander has.

however on the plus side, once the longs start building, hopefully all of us will be past the learning curve and should be able to benefit.

on 3-4%, commander i am still not convinced about 4% whatever be the scenario - especially if one is trading a micro account, which i am unashamedly doing so

commander - a couple of things: its best if we keep this thread to the long term system and you create a new one for your intraday system (or use your journal for that)

secondly, if you are giving up the long term system, pls let us know!!!!

lastly, i hope you realise the fan following you have now. those long haired bearded guys smoking weed outside your window - them's us.

oh yes, for me to start looking at shorts:

 

  1. euro daily should close above 2500 properly, not a limp wristed close a few pips just above
  2. cable should close above 5000 similarly
  3. all other pairs will take their cue from these two

trust commander you agree with this.

  • #1,616
  • Jun 19, 2010 6:55am Jun 19, 2010 6:55am
Quoting DanUK
Hi Coolshades,

Ok, well here it is (so far): http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=310 but I don't think you're gonna like it (15m candles can be seen)!!!

Good plan with the Cleggster by the way!! Did you by any chance catch Question Time last night? Chris Huhne... man that guys seems like such a drip!!

Regards,

Dan
Will be interested to read a new thread based on your 15m meathod, I am still looking to establish some good long term positions but would be interested in learning a shorter term trading meathod to fill any free time in the day.
  • #1,617
  • Jun 19, 2010 7:20am Jun 19, 2010 7:20am
Quoting coolshades
My daily strategy of buy/sell and hold is much less profitable if you get into trades half way through the trend
Quoting coolshades

this is SO IMPORTANT. I was thinking of mentioning this a week or so back but then i realised i always come across negative on these threads.

i am undecided whether the downtrend will resume or is at its fag end now.. but assuming the latter, those who are...
Hi Coolshades,

Lot’s of points to answer there so I’ll do it one by one, like this (Coolshades in blue, response in black):

this is SO IMPORTANT. I was thinking of mentioning this a week or so back but then i realised i always come across negative on these threads.

i am undecided whether the downtrend will resume or is at its fag end now.. but assuming the latter, those who are building long term positions short, are unlikely to replicate the pyramiding success that commander has.

Yes you’re absolutely right – if I hadn’t already got a load of short positions on these trades (or long USD/CHF etc) I would not be looking to hold new long term trades… I would still be happy to trade the daily method but I would look to take profit rather than hold on… sorry if I should have made that clearer from the start.

however on the plus side, once the longs start building, hopefully all of us will be past the learning curve and should be able to benefit.

Again, you’re right – when/if things do change I hope we all get the chance to replicate the success I’ve been so lucky to have this year.

on 3-4%, commander i am still not convinced about 4% whatever be the scenario - especially if one is trading a micro account, which i am unashamedly doing so

I certainly understand your concern and I wouldn’t advocate anyone taking unnecessary risk but I would also say that when trading with the long term outlook and if you have managed to get in on the trend from the start (not the top or bottom but from the point in which the new trend has proven itself) then you can be a little bit more flexible when it comes to R:R. Let’s just take my Euro trades this year as an example… I start trading short from 1.4500 with 2% risk; now that trade is up a little over 2000 pips so I am looking at 1:10 at the moment. Now overall I am up around 8500 pips on EU so in a way I am looking at over 1:40. Now of course, it’s not really 1:40+ in the traditional way of looking at R:R but we can afford to be a little more flexible given the possible outcome over the long term.

Now this does just remind me to bring up one other thing… once you’ve built a lot of trades into a good position, swings up and down make a massive difference… for example if I were to close my EU trades at the lows of 1.1900 I would have cashed out a massive 137.5% return however if I close out soon, say 1.2500 I would be looking at 85% (still not bad of course!). This is where fear and greed can really do things to you! I have no way of knowing that this retracement is just a retracement or a change of trend… this is why you have to stick to your rules. I have to assume, until proven otherwise that this retracement is just a retracement and that the downtrend will resume next week and my profit will increase again. There may be a better way of dealing with this; such as cashing in trades once they gain a certain amount… say once a trade is up 1000 pips I close it but keep the others running until they make the same gain. This is something I am still working on… but even so 85% return from the EU in seven months is no joke!

commander - a couple of things: its best if we keep this thread to the long term system and you create a new one for your intraday system (or use your journal for that)

secondly, if you are giving up the long term system, pls let us know!!!!

Yes I agree, I don’t want to steer this thread off course so I will probably start a separate journal to talk about my intraday games!

But don’t worry I am not ditching the long term strategy! So far it is working out very well so there is definitely no reason to stop doing what I’m doing!

lastly, i hope you realise the fan following you have now. those long haired bearded guys smoking weed outside your window - them's us.

Well I don’t know if I have any fans but next time you guys are smoking outside my window… pass some in dammit!!!

oh yes, for me to start looking at shorts:

 

  1. euro daily should close above 2500 properly, not a limp wristed close a few pips just above
  2. cable should close above 5000 similarly
  3. all other pairs will take their cue from these two

Now I reckon you meant “to start looking at longs” right? If so, yes that looks like a pretty decent plan. I’m going to post a couple of charts after I’ve stopped for some lunch, showing my current thinking on EU, GU and AU.

Regards,


Dan

  • #1,618
  • Edited 7:32pm Jun 19, 2010 7:04pm | Edited 7:32pm
Hi Dan,
The Vsa meth looks interesting I also like trading smaller time frames sometimes, please keep us updated on your progres.

Hoping we are all going to get some down action on the euro next week.


Coolshades I think you should roll a large one I think we could all do with it
after last weeks trading.

CP
  • #1,619
  • Jun 19, 2010 10:31pm Jun 19, 2010 10:31pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi,

Thanks for the info... I am currently using the Better Vol indicator and so far it has been quite useful however I am interested in using eSignal for a better overall picture. Is their Volume indicator part of the standard package or is it an extra?

I have always been interested in watching the markets work and how certain patterns show the way... the addition of VSA to this approach helps me understand better how the markets are moving. I realise that VSA is about more than one candle but it...
Yes Dan ...i do agree with your assessment of the value of having volume info while analyzing price action which can give the extra edge to the trader and they can do better in taking high probability trades. Since i started my trading education with stocks therefore i have been aware of its importance however after switching to Forex i have shunned it for a while until i discovered that it still works on forex as well depending
Volume is a part of their standard package .... BTW traderguider (Tom William's company) has a VSA add on for eSignal you many want to consider that as well.

Along with following my longer term trend trading strategy ...i'll do some further digging on using VSA based analytics on smaller TFs as well. Will keep posted.
  • #1,620
  • Jun 20, 2010 5:09am Jun 20, 2010 5:09am
what do you use for small tfs? come on guys, share pls !!!

Quoting crazzypip
Hi Dan,
The Vsa meth looks interesting I also like trading smaller time frames sometimes, please keep us updated on your progres.

Hoping we are all going to get some down action on the euro next week.


Coolshades I think you should roll a large one I think we could all do with it
after last weeks trading.

CP
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