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  • #2,481
  • Jun 18, 2010 4:56am Jun 18, 2010 4:56am
Quoting nasir.khan
Be careful with CT's without Divg.


Just IMO.

P.s: Hey Jlr can you please post some of your PV trades charts. I wanna know how it worked out with you for my research.

Thanks.
I agree...divergence is such a powerful tool IMO if used correctly...a lot of people seem to dismiss it for some reason.
  • #2,482
  • Jun 18, 2010 5:05am Jun 18, 2010 5:05am
Quoting nasir.khan
Be careful with CT's without Divg.


Just IMO.

P.s: Hey Jlr can you please post some of your PV trades charts. I wanna know how it worked out with you for my research.

Thanks.
Sure, I'll start saving them, and put them in a zip or something. I mostly like to play the P and V's with TL breakouts. Don't go CT too much, and space is practically the most important thing to me when I make these trades. Just a preview I guess. Really not doing anything amazing here. Not like the gains I see you, and others doing.
Thanks guys, I should pay more attention to div. The 1 hr PA wasn't chopped up into an official PA formation, but its still strong PA to me, and I love the location and the close below those highs. I do suck at PA though, so I guess I should be more careful. Anyway, didn't even put it in demo
  • #2,483
  • Jun 18, 2010 5:15am Jun 18, 2010 5:15am
Hmm, I wonder that that Gold move means...



(maybe not today, my guess is that it's going to go a bit higher to surprise all the short players, but we'll have a Bloody Mary (Monday, sorry) or Tuesday)
  • #2,484
  • Jun 18, 2010 5:21am Jun 18, 2010 5:21am
Quoting nasir.khan
Yes i think it's AJ, but my reasons are technical.

I don't have knowledge of this stuff but I have started working on it and i will get my hands on "Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis" (book)

when i'll find some time.
Wow ! It is a very nice book. Thanks Nasir for the hint !

I will finally understand what risk appetite means. LJ is always using this phrase but I did not get the full grip on it.
  • #2,485
  • Jun 18, 2010 5:31am Jun 18, 2010 5:31am
Quoting lovejoy80
I agree...divergence is such a powerful tool IMO if used correctly...a lot of people seem to dismiss it for some reason.
One reason could be that when they are new (we also did that) they visit babypips, learn divergence and below their 1st real money accounts using it. So it cause a bad memory for divg for rest of their career or until they really figure out how to use it.

Nothing special about AJ. Just compare its move against other JPY pairs.Also It made it's last high on 14 much earlier than the rest.

You would think that in that case why not UJ. But uj has to compete with some resistance just below.
  • #2,486
  • Jun 18, 2010 5:57am Jun 18, 2010 5:57am
Quoting ogeid
Wow ! It is a very nice book. Thanks Nasir for the hint !

I will finally understand what risk appetite means. LJ is always using this phrase but I did not get the full grip on it.
There many out there but i think the best and latest one is of "Ashraf Laidi".

All this fundies stuff is drives me crazy.

But i think these intermarket studies are important. I am also thinking about starting my studies again and get an Economics degree.

I just started running around this stuff for two days but i think that

in a state of risk appetite people strive for higher returns like carry trades so AJ is the best one cause of big difference of interest rates between AUD and Yen.

in a state of risk aversion people will sacrifice returns and look out for "safe havens" like Gold and USD.

Am i right LJ??

Damn there are are thousands of thread for those Trading systems but i can't find one where i could ask these basic questions.
.
  • #2,487
  • Jun 18, 2010 6:03am Jun 18, 2010 6:03am
that book is by ashraf laidi? he is one of the few genuine analysts out there and makes great calls - though his calls are pretty long term and can require good amount of drawdown. they are more like direction calls than tradeable calls.

Quoting lovejoy80
What's your technical reason? here is my 4H AJ chart...if technicals and fundamentals line up then than only be a good thing!

I'll check out that book, I only know the basics but would like to learn more.
  • #2,488
  • Jun 18, 2010 6:12am Jun 18, 2010 6:12am
Quoting coolshades
that book is by ashraf laidi? he is one of the few genuine analysts out there and makes great calls - though his calls are pretty long term and can require good amount of drawdown. they are more like direction calls than tradeable calls.
Checked price and it's 70$.

Back to the chart,
.
.
.
.
.

Hmmmm wich pair will move 700pips next week.
.
  • #2,489
  • Jun 18, 2010 6:21am Jun 18, 2010 6:21am
Quoting nasir.khan
There many out there but i think the best and latest one is of "Ashraf Laidi".

All this fundies stuff is drives me crazy.

But i think these intermarket studies are important. I am also thinking about starting my studies again and get an Economics degree.

I just started running around this stuff for two days but i think that

[b]in a state of risk appetite people strive for higher returns like carry trades so AJ...
Yep that's correct.

The carry trade isn't really back on like it used to be though...I mean that still holds to a certain extent...but we are till in the aftermath of the GFC and the carry trade just doesn't work like it use to...but it will come back when the markets return to complete normality and currencies rise and fall based on their own economic outlooks.

CHF used to be a safe haven play too...but not at the moment.

I considered doing economics degree too or at least a course...but I reckon there are only a few things that you need to know in terms of what fundamentals affect currencies and how they all make up the big macroeconomic picture. Unemployment, budget deficit, inflation, retail sales, manufacturing, interest rates, GDP...its not much more than that and knowing the specifics about an individual economy...i.e. what they export / import etc. and what cuases economic growth.

But knowing all of those things is really only for longer term trading...IMO technical analysis is the best method for short term trading with just an awareness of the news releases and what they mean etc.
  • #2,490
  • Jun 18, 2010 6:22am Jun 18, 2010 6:22am
Quoting nasir.khan
There many out there but i think the best and latest one is of "Ashraf Laidi".

All this fundies stuff is drives me crazy.

But i think these intermarket studies are important. I am also thinking about starting my studies again and get an Economics degree.

I just started running around this stuff for two days but i think that

in a state of risk appetite people strive for higher returns like carry trades so AJ...
Risk appetite means people go for risky assets: stocks, commodities, exotic currencies.

Risk aversion means people go for safe heavens: JPY, USD and Gold. But gold is a particular 'difficult' asset, because it changes fundamentals. There isn't really a fundamental motive for gold to fall...
  • #2,491
  • Jun 18, 2010 6:23am Jun 18, 2010 6:23am
One possible coming up on g/a, see if you can spot is nas. Should say, nothing spectacular, but pretty much what the average trade will look like.
  • #2,492
  • Jun 18, 2010 6:31am Jun 18, 2010 6:31am
Quoting Jlr
One possible coming up on g/a, see if you can spot is nas. Should say, nothing spectacular, but pretty much what the average trade will look like.
GA??

Not my pair but i checked the chart.

If you are trading setups like these you should be a millionaire by now.

Looks good for an initial burst of 80 pips.

Ok thanks and keep updating me.
.
  • #2,493
  • Jun 18, 2010 6:32am Jun 18, 2010 6:32am
Quoting neutro
Risk appetite means people go for risky assets: stocks, commodities, exotic currencies.

Risk aversion means people go for safe heavens: JPY, USD and Gold. But gold is a particular 'difficult' asset, because it changes fundamentals. There isn't really a fundamental motive for gold to fall...
Gold is a hedge against inflation. JPY and USD are considered safe heavens because in tough economic times, they don't need to rely on other countries to borrow money. Read an article yesterday illustrating golds rapid up move, and showed it a long side the dow. Basically moved hand in hand. So I think it should be classified a little differently, instead of just a safe haven.
  • #2,494
  • Jun 18, 2010 6:34am Jun 18, 2010 6:34am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yep that's correct.

The carry trade isn't really back on like it used to be though...I mean that still holds to a certain extent...but we are till in the aftermath of the GFC and the carry trade just doesn't work like it use to...but it will come back when the markets return to complete normality and currencies rise and fall based on their own economic outlooks.

CHF used to be a safe haven play too...but not at the moment.

I considered doing economics degree too or at least a course...but I reckon there are only a few things that you need...
Quoting neutro
Risk appetite means people go for risky assets: stocks, commodities, exotic currencies.

Risk aversion means people go for safe heavens: JPY, USD and Gold. But gold is a particular 'difficult' asset, because it changes fundamentals. There isn't really a fundamental motive for gold to fall...


Thanks Guys.

So there trick is to Analise beforehand that when conditions turn sides from Risk Aversion to Risk Apatite and vice versa.

and then pick the instruments realitive to situation.
.
  • #2,495
  • Jun 18, 2010 6:36am Jun 18, 2010 6:36am
Quoting Jlr
Gold is a hedge against inflation. JPY and USD are considered safe heavens because in tough economic times, they don't need to rely on other countries to borrow money. Read an article yesterday illustrating golds rapid up move, and showed it a long side the dow. Basically moved hand in hand. So I think it should be classified a little differently, instead of just a safe haven.
Yeah, I should have put it also in the risky class.
  • #2,496
  • Jun 18, 2010 6:42am Jun 18, 2010 6:42am
Quoting nasir.khan
GA??

Not my pair but i checked the chart.

If you are trading setups like these you should be a millionaire by now.

Looks good for an initial burst of 80 pips.

Ok thanks and keep updating me.
.
Thanks, glad you like it. Honestly confidence a little shaken. Had a bad week last week. This week been treading a little too lightly as a result. Still only been live a few months now. Will gladly update, if I forget, send a PM or something. Will try to save all the trades I take if I can remember. You've helped me a lot.
  • #2,497
  • Edited 7:06am Jun 18, 2010 6:50am | Edited 7:06am
How many times you've seen this formation breaking upwards,.....rather then downwards.

Not today though, there is no catalyst for this kindda move.

but anything is possible so don't bet your house on it. lol

Sorry forgot the chart.
..
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  • #2,498
  • Jun 18, 2010 6:50am Jun 18, 2010 6:50am
Quoting nasir.khan
GA??

Not my pair but i checked the chart.

If you are trading setups like these you should be a millionaire by now.

Looks good for an initial burst of 80 pips.

Ok thanks and keep updating me.
.
G/AUD? Break of 1.7?
  • #2,499
  • Jun 18, 2010 6:53am Jun 18, 2010 6:53am
Quoting Jlr
Gold is a hedge against inflation. JPY and USD are considered safe heavens because in tough economic times, they don't need to rely on other countries to borrow money. Read an article yesterday illustrating golds rapid up move, and showed it a long side the dow. Basically moved hand in hand. So I think it should be classified a little differently, instead of just a safe haven.
Yep missed out the inflation hedge part. However, when dow goes down you'd expect gold to go up wouldn't you...
  • #2,500
  • Jun 18, 2010 6:55am Jun 18, 2010 6:55am
Quoting Jlr
Thanks, glad you like it. Honestly confidence a little shaken. Had a bad week last week. This week been treading a little too lightly as a result. Still only been live a few months now. Will gladly update, if I forget, send a PM or something. Will try to save all the trades I take if I can remember. You've helped me a lot.
Hey hey hey,......

i just saw that price never touched 1.7000 in the last 5 attempts.

So somebody is protecting it maybe (what's do they call it Option Berrier???)

It could get tricky here Jlr

But what will happen when they'll stop protecting it?
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