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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #16,581
  • Jun 17, 2010 1:29pm Jun 17, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting Fana
We can predict
Throw how we are we can predict
Cyrcles are=predict
Changes are and in time sequence=predict
Fana, just out of curousity, are you using that Gann stuff in your trading? Is it leading you to profitable trades consistantly? Usually all the curve fitting techniques widely available in books or on the internet lead to several losing trades and one winner, which is lucky coincidence(IMHO), and that keeps repeating. In best case scenario, this lucky winner brings you to BE, and you become the brokers dream - a trader that trades a lot and stays at BE or loses his account slowly.
  • #16,582
  • Jun 17, 2010 1:29pm Jun 17, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting Fana
Give me cup of it... yum, yum....
But as i think of.... When we sleep, we lost nite of continual thinking. Thats bad... I feel, that it woul be better to abolish sleeping(and also that crazy phenomen dreams...useless imho). And shorten the life. Thats for what i will be voting next election..... And bonus is overnight positions and full-full time...
Virtual drinking...ups, i have enuf...
You no read: I think, you are "very fanatic interest" = It is very dangerous!
  • #16,583
  • Jun 17, 2010 1:30pm Jun 17, 2010 1:30pm
Quoting Setebos
Just google translated it, oh my, spot on
Dont be so gushy, everybody have sometimes ...the day... And alphabet is also not enough...

Gro : I understand... but i have to say what had happened to me last week. I was helping parents at garden. I was so nervous from that... Because i was collecting "not right plants" from vegetable, but everytime there something reminded. It was terrible!!! I like to understand what i dont.
  • #16,584
  • Jun 17, 2010 1:43pm Jun 17, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting MyTbo
Fana, just out of curousity, are you using that Gann stuff in your trading? Is it leading you to profitable trades consistantly? Usually all the curve fitting techniques widely available in books or on the internet lead to several losing trades and one winner, which is lucky coincidence(IMHO), and that keeps repeating. In best case scenario, this lucky winner brings you to BE, and you become the brokers dream - a trader that trades a lot and stays at BE or loses his account slowly.
Lets assume, that we know, that for some day started strong trend. Just think, that during this day, swing will be 200pips and more... So we know, that there is some high-low 200pips. We also know our position for "NOW". So we can manage it with snowballing positions into supposed time windows.
  • #16,585
  • Jun 17, 2010 1:44pm Jun 17, 2010 1:44pm
Quoting MyTbo
Fana, just out of curousity, are you using that Gann stuff in your trading? Is it leading you to profitable trades consistantly? Usually all the curve fitting techniques widely available in books or on the internet lead to several losing trades and one winner, which is lucky coincidence(IMHO), and that keeps repeating. In best case scenario, this lucky winner brings you to BE, and you become the brokers dream - a trader that trades a lot and stays at BE or loses his account slowly.
if you think that was "stupid" Gann, explain this to me:
1908 - a 130 account increased to 12 000 in 30 days
1923 - a 973 account increased to 30 000 in 60 days
1933 - 479 trades - 422 profitable = 4000% profit
1946 - a 3 month = 400% profit

Thanks
  • #16,586
  • Jun 17, 2010 1:47pm Jun 17, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting Fana
We can predict
Throw how we are we can predict
Cyrcles are=predict
Changes are and in time sequence=predict
No no no, please don't go there.

fti invented the 37th strategem (I am too polite to translate ) for peeps who have erred.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #16,587
  • Jun 17, 2010 2:01pm Jun 17, 2010 2:01pm
Fana,
it is very easy.
Predictions or forecasting
Do not work.
If you do not believe it
then
give it a try
with a very small account.
Go ahead and convince yourself
then
drop it.
Good luck- you will need it!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #16,588
  • Jun 17, 2010 2:04pm Jun 17, 2010 2:04pm
Boys, you underestimate me: So i made some picture to enlighten....

But seriously, yes, you are right, i cant use this new search-info untill it is proven. And i cant tell that it is like this, when i dont tried it... Sorry for that mess.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,589
  • Jun 17, 2010 2:12pm Jun 17, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting Fana
Lets assume, that we know, that for some day started strong trend. Just think, that during this day, swing will be 200pips and more... So we know, that there is some high-low 200pips. We also know our position for "NOW". So we can manage it with snowballing positions into supposed time windows.
Fana, you didn't answer the questions I asked. The answers of this questions should matter the most in your quest for better trading strategy.

If I KNOW that a 200 pips swing would occur in a given direction, I would enter some positions and then go enjoy life. I wouldn't even care to manage the positions.However, I never know where( and when) the market will go and that's why I stay in front of the chart and try to manage exposure.

@Gro
What you posted can easily be true, but it can be also a very good marketing trick. I don't know which one of the above it is. The important thing is what you believe it is.Personally, I believe it's the second
  • #16,590
  • Jun 17, 2010 2:16pm Jun 17, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting MyTbo
Fana, just out of curousity, are you using that Gann stuff in your trading? Is it leading you to profitable trades consistantly? Usually all the curve fitting techniques widely available in books or on the internet lead to several losing trades and one winner, which is lucky coincidence(IMHO), and that keeps repeating. In best case scenario, this lucky winner brings you to BE, and you become the brokers dream - a trader that trades a lot and stays at BE or loses his account slowly.
MyTbo : Sorry for late answer, No. I dont use it. Reallity is, that i still dont know how it is and if it works. But i dont agree with "stoploses, something will be ok... some profit...". I use positions, value of risk. And managing positions.
  • #16,591
  • Edited 2:56pm Jun 17, 2010 2:39pm | Edited 2:56pm
OK

Market is constantly looking for harmony, which oscillates in the extreme.Horizontally, vertically and at an angle.Try angle 45 in the trend(chart must be displayed ratio 1:1 and no automatic screen!).Market still looking for the angle.Try it yourself.I already wrote - horizontal oscilate.Vertical, now somebody knows?
No astrology but ... Saturn the Latin name Chronos and cycle 28 years
Moon cycle 28 days and 365 cycle for Saturn (Earth cycle for Sun 365 days) .
Olympic games cycle 4 years (fifth year is productive = Kondratev cycle) ... probably a coincidence ... etc,etc.
I'm "not writing" about astrology but the ratio, because - "as above is same below".

"wisdom is the principal thing: therefore get wisdom and with all thy getting, get understanding" Gann.

"truth is stranger than fiction"
  • #16,592
  • Jun 17, 2010 2:45pm Jun 17, 2010 2:45pm
Quoting auxesis
Textor,

You would have to understand the journey I've traveled. There are some studies that I appreciate, if just for the learning and knowledge.

Not every thing learned applies all the time, some don't fit the student, some don't fit the market, but it doesn't make the study bad. You need to understand or better stated intimately know the tool, and how and when to use it....
Hi Auxesis!

Thank you for your answer.

I can understand perfectly what you say, even before you write it,
but I try to be of some help and alert the people that I humbly think
they take the wrong way.
But, you know, I can be wrong too.

I will tell you something:
I am convinced that people prefer to think that they are ignorant
but that there is a "secret" that need to be discovered
and when they discover the secret they will be "happier / smarter",
than to accept that there is no secret out there, and that is just about living / trading
and understanding the day by day, the "here and now".

My father once said to me: son, people stopped believing in God
not to believe in nothing, but to believe in any stupid thing.

O.K., time for my gin tonic....

Regards,

Textor
  • #16,593
  • Jun 17, 2010 2:48pm Jun 17, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting Gro
OK

Market is constantly looking for harmony, which oscillates in the extreme.Horizontally, vertically and at an angle.Try...
Gro, that ratio 1:1 is problem in MT4, if you can recomend some other program or how to understand 1:1.... ? Thank you.
  • #16,594
  • Jun 17, 2010 3:18pm Jun 17, 2010 3:18pm
EDIT : THIS ONE I hope, this is 45 degrees and ratio is 1:1.... ?
MT4 is like the camera of F1 races or films about planes and rockets... You cant see the speed, only some adjustings...no movement, only focusing...
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  • #16,595
  • Jun 17, 2010 3:30pm Jun 17, 2010 3:30pm
Fana, first learn properly to dance,MO and Money Management.
"Hope" is a terrible word and for you this is are GannFan (called "crutch").
  • #16,596
  • Jun 17, 2010 3:51pm Jun 17, 2010 3:51pm
Quoting fti
着虫钻肛门
I love google search and translate! LOL and right on target fti.
  • #16,597
  • Jun 17, 2010 5:28pm Jun 17, 2010 5:28pm
He is famous because he uses "gun fun":

I'm sorry..... my weakness is stronger than me....

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programme...lk/8745686.stm



Rgs,

Textor
  • #16,598
  • Jun 17, 2010 5:44pm Jun 17, 2010 5:44pm
Quoting Fana
EDIT : THIS ONE I hope, this is 45 degrees and ratio is 1:1.... ?
MT4 is like the camera of F1 races or films about planes and rockets... You cant see the speed, only some adjustings...no movement, only focusing...
Fana, I do not mean to be impolite, but what the heck are you talking about? What does this chart mean to you? Please explain how this chart helps you identify your next trade, and how does it help you improve your trade execution? You have read several places in this thread that the chart is your boss, so please explain what the chart, with the box and line, is telling you to do? I am very confused by your posts and am very concerned about what you are doing.
  • #16,599
  • Edited 7:25pm Jun 17, 2010 5:55pm | Edited 7:25pm
Quoting Fana
Gro, that ratio 1:1 is problem in MT4, if you can recomend some other program or how to understand 1:1.... ? Thank you.
Fana,

Where do I start?????

1:1 ratio is just that, pip:time or 1 pip for 1 bar, a screen that is 100 pips tall by 100 bars wide is in a 1:1 ratio. To square your swing = pips in the swing by that # of bars for the square. Your MT4 screen can be made to scale fix at a fixed ratio, instead of auto.

But wait what time frame bar to use? 1 minute, 5 minute, 10,15,30 minute?.... 4 minute?

This is just scratching the very surface dirt of the Rabbit Hole you want to dive down. Are you sure your ready for the challenge, cause most spend a lifetime seeking all the different meanings and twists you will find in the Gann forums on the internet, everyone has the "secret" yet the "secret" or was there a "secret"? was taken to the grave, so everything you will find is someone's interpretation.

Some you will learn will be useful, some a wild goose chase, some will depend on you. But everything you study will need to be applied to 1000's of charts for full understanding..... it isn't a quick lesson and off to the charts to make a fortune.... you will find more years of heartache and frustration in comparison to the actual nuggets of wisdom that can be applied.

What FTI has taught is much more practical and better for trading, learn to master PA first and then go for indepth stuff to enhance, if you still feel you need it. You will be able to build upon it much better than the other way around.

But it's your choice, if it's gann you want, this ain't the place, google search and get going, but you've been warned.

a

edit, here's a better study for ya, or better yet stick your head in the charts for a few years.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf MTWyckoffSchematics.pdf   1.1 MB | 845 downloads
  • #16,600
  • Jun 17, 2010 6:07pm Jun 17, 2010 6:07pm
Quoting textor
Cheers!

.... and I thought I drank too much ....
4 fingers please.
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