Silent Service Method

Charts and well-thought-out analysis are what it's all about....if that's clutter, we're all doomed.

No, don't apologize. In fact, I appreciate the charts - good analysis.

Chris

While I am not one to tell you what to do, or even which direction to trade....be warned: the volume on some of these "rallies" seems to be very, very light. Be careful buying into that.

Sometimes, it's all about sitting here and waiting.

This is one of those times I think.

hi, cw:
one question, with which broker can I long/short individual US stock at small volume?

leverage is nice-to-have and not a must.

interactive-brokers can only long and cannot short individual stock, right?

[update: someone told me both interactive-brokers, etrade, scottrade all could short individual stocks, true?]

I don't know about the others - but I can short stocks via Interactive. Some exchanges don't make it easy.....Hong Kong comes to mind....but there are plenty of stocks I can short in general....

Chris

IGmarkets and CMC markets are ok - access to a wide range of shares across alot of indexes. Haven't used Interactive like Clockwork but would imagine they are fighting each other for market share. I am in the UK though so have never tried them in the US.

These brokers seem to offer them all as CFDs on leverage from 1:10 to 1:50 which is something that they set on a per instrument basis.

Hope that helps, good luck.

Reminds me of one day last May when lots of sell orders came in to a highly illiquid market.

Flash crash I think they call it Maybe a similar outlook just on a bit longer timeframe.

This volume at the moment is incredible, makes me wonder how many support beams you can remove before the house falls down...............

"just" have to be patient

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUST...2l7ByIg4YjwZhw

/edit: sorry wrong link

Yes! Today there is going to be a landslide of selling in the EUR markets.

The Euro and Spain are a perfect example of why you can't get too into the day-to-day moves. Yesterday we had a big push up - but what has really changed? Nothing....

Europe is still a mess. Those of us that are patient and will look to the larger time frames for guidance will be rewarded in the end.

Ironically, there are people that see your occasional 500 pip trade as "lucky."

a great post. keep these charts coming
thank you

Greatest name in the WC -

Switzerland's Hakan Yakin.

famous player in germany
hopppp swissss nice win

Starting to like this guy more and more......here's a video I posted on my blog.....

Looks like Spain is going to be disappointed yet again.

Many of you guys have probably seen this but just in case.

http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http...kNiKeBupOFQR3w

What an upset today ...... ^^

Looks like the morons are buying BP because of the deal announced. PLEASE don't follow them.....there are still too many unknowns.

and only minutes later they announce the div cuts... beautiful. Tell me that wasn't timed that way on purpose...

This is a subject that's been on my mind a lot lately, so I hope you don't mind my musings on the topic...And sorry in advance for the slightly long post...I do think that housing is one of THE keys for the US economy going forward, so it is relevant...So without further ado:


For housing (as with many things in life), this depends on a lot of variables and there are tons of pros and cons but here are the major factors I'd highlight:

-Your job & prospects for jobs in your geographical area - You have to be able to afford it, and someone in the future needs to be able to buy your house from you...If you live in an area that is losing jobs regularly and that trend is persisting buying a house might not make sense.

-Your current rent & expectations for future rent increases - If rents are stable or declining along with real estate it might not make sense to lock in your payment with a long-term mortgage. If you are in the hyper-inflation camp, locking in a fixed payment for 30yrs makes all the sense in the world...

-Your debt levels & credit worthiness - If you don't have good credit, you ain't getting 4.75% interest rate which dramatically increases the cost of your home. Also if you don't have a down-payment, you'll have to pay for mortgage insurance...

-Your alternative uses of cash - If you're like Samer & can make 20%/year on your cash, why lock it up?

-What's available to buy - If there aren't any houses worth buying all the other factors don't matter...But this one can't be stressed enough, if you're going to outgrow your house in 5yrs or will want to move, buying a house probably doesn't make sense because of all the costs associated with buying a house (more on that later).

Like that video says.. in "real" (inflation adjusted) terms I don't think housing is going anywhere anytime fast but keep in mind that housing is a fairly leveraged investment (4-1 leverage if you put down 20%). That said it's very tax-advantaged...mortgage interest deductions, exclusion of capital gains on selling your home, etc... And interest rates are insanely low. If you're borrowing less than $417,000 and your credit is good, you can likely get a mortgage for about 4.75%

A few other thoughts...

A) People who don't have to sell, aren't selling...i.e. the inventory of homes for sale is not that great in good areas. (at least in my area NYC suburbs). The stuff for sale that's worth looking at is still pretty expensive
B) States & Municipalities are in real trouble and will take it out on homeowners (by raising property taxes). In many of the areas I'm looking, taxes by themselves are like having another small mortgage
C) Buying & Selling Homes is expensive business (lawyers, brokers, appraisers, lenders, title companies, etc). I've heard some estimates put it at about 3% on the way in and 5-6% or more when selling a house. This is interesting when you consider that on a standard 30yr fixed mortgage...after 5yrs, you've only paid off about 8.5% of your loan...

Anyway, here is the MBA Purchase Index that the video talks about. As you can see the spike a few weeks ago is from people rushing to get in before the tax credit expired (pulling demand forward from future months) and then the subsequent fall-off... (this actually happened twice b/c the tax credit was extended once...)



That being said though -- I would love to buy a house (and my wife will tell you all the non-financial reasons to buy a house!)-- in fact I'm actively looking but I can't seem to find anything worth buying. And my lease is up Sep 30th, so I'm under the gun!! If this guy is right and sellers will be desperate to get bids and i can get something for 20% less than where they are now, I'll definitely get involved... but it may just be another year of renting for me... We'll shall see...

Oh and for any would-be-buyers like myself. This is an excellent rent vs. buy calculator (has by far the most variables that you can adjust): HERE

Again, sorry for the long post...

Of course. Did you really think otherwise?