Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 825 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #16,481
  • Jun 15, 2010 10:51am Jun 15, 2010 10:51am
Hi!

I think that last days in EUR/USD is a good reflection of these sentences that I like:

“The more bullish things are, the more bearish they are”
and
“The more bearish things are, the more bullish they are”

The time that this will last is another question.

Rgs,

Textor
  • #16,482
  • Jun 15, 2010 11:05am Jun 15, 2010 11:05am
Quoting Fana
Hello Baifu
Interesting... If i can, now i realized that it is possible to use smaller cycle as a basis for the bigger, and turn attack to rescue and vice versa... 1,1,2,3 ....... next 1(7),1(7),2(14).........
  • #16,483
  • Jun 15, 2010 11:09am Jun 15, 2010 11:09am
Quoting Fana
Hello Baifu
Interesting... If i can, now i realized that it is possible to use smaller cycle as a basis for the bigger, and turn attack to rescue and vice versa... 1,1,2,3 ....... next 1(7),1(7),2(14).........
Fana there are many examples of this mode in the thread.

I think we can play any manner of number game to suit our capitalization and situation. For rescue we can sum up all positions to reset as base 1 (as you have done with 7), or we can split a larger number into components, such as in attack skip to the right then skew inwards to maintain a good distance to current price as buffer against retrace.

There was an exmple where a poster had 1 lot in deep trouble and fti suggested he rescue with 1 lot (I think that was all the resource he had) but think in terms of 3,7,10. His existing 1 lot is split into 3,7 and the rescue is 10. If rescue is successful exit 10 and 7, as damage control, ..............

This is from memory, correction of details welcome.


Rgs
Baifu
  • #16,484
  • Jun 15, 2010 11:10am Jun 15, 2010 11:10am
my eyes are open @ e/u 2336 and watching how 3316 area responds.
g/u 4840 area.
  • #16,485
  • Jun 15, 2010 11:15am Jun 15, 2010 11:15am
Quoting Baifu
Fana there are many examples of this mode in the thread.

I think we can play any manner of number game to suit our capitalization and situation. For rescue we can sum up all positions to reset as base 1 (as you have done with 7), or we can split a larger number into components, such as in attack skip to the right then skew inwards to maintain a good distance to current price as buffer against retrace.

There was an exmple where a poster had 1 lot in deep trouble and fti suggested he rescue with 1 lot (I think that was all the resource...
So the rescue mode should be only for SCOUT... ?
regards
  • #16,486
  • Edited 11:58am Jun 15, 2010 11:24am | Edited 11:58am
Quoting Fana
and the ball is eur under pressure.... Do you also think of 0,85?
speaking of pressure a heard the pressure of oil thats coming into the gulf is 15,000 psi.
your ave. pressure cleanining equipment is 3,000 psi and try to cap that.

Obama didnt want help from the other countries and their boats because there not registered and his union partners wouldnt like it.
although the writing is on the wall we will have to wait on him to tell us what his agenda is as we know his group wont let a good disaster go to waste.
  • #16,487
  • Jun 15, 2010 11:55am Jun 15, 2010 11:55am
Quoting lilpip
speaking of pressure a heard the pressure of oil thats coming into the gulf is 15,000 psi.
your ave. pressure cleanining equipment is 3,000 psi and try to cap that.

Obama didnt want help from the other countries and their boats because there not registered and his union partners wouldnt like it.
we will have to see what his agenda is as we know his group wont let a good disaster go to waste.
Lilpip, thank you
  • #16,488
  • Edited 12:08pm Jun 15, 2010 11:58am | Edited 12:08pm
Quoting Fana
So the rescue mode should be only for SCOUT... ?
regards
No.

If you have only scout you are sailing in a small boat and it is easy to turn on wind or sacrifice and try again. Or you can rescue.

If you are committed with larger troops, e.g. after you wage attack and market turn against you, first do damage control by exiting the last entry, then look at charts to decide whether your positions are mistimed (rescue) or the trend has turned. Most likely the short charts (say under hourly) are impacted, zoom out to see if H1 is impacted and evaluate. Whether rescue or flip would need at least one level up from the last damage control exit.

Example: 1,1,2,3,5 is caught by impulse, exit 5, and implement rescue or flip with at least 8, or apply a skew to the 7 troops remaining (same as re-setting 7 as base 1). The skew you apply depends on how many troops you need to bring BE within retrace probability. Besides fibo number (phi skew 1.618), pi skew (3.1416) is also mentioned, I think the skew can be any factor decided by your math.

Above from memory, if I find the post number I will post.

Rgs,
Baifu

Edit: just what I remember from reading, everyone should work out his own MO
Edit: besides rescue or flip, we can also bail out. Not easy decisions
  • #16,489
  • Jun 15, 2010 11:59am Jun 15, 2010 11:59am
Quoting Fana
Lilpip, thank you
your welcome but one question.
for what ?
  • #16,490
  • Jun 15, 2010 12:00pm Jun 15, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting lilpip
for what ?
For answer
I know, that here it is normal to help people with questions, but it is not obviosity everywhere... So sometimes i think it is good to say something....
  • #16,491
  • Jun 15, 2010 12:02pm Jun 15, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting Baifu
No.

If you have only scout you are sailing in a small boat and it is easy to turn on wind or sacrifice and try again. Or you can rescue.

If you are committed with larger troops, e.g. after you wage attack and market turn against you, first do damage control by exiting the last entry, then look at charts to decide whether your positions are mistimed (rescue) or the trend has turned. Most likely the short charts (say under hourly) are impacted, zoom out to see if H1 is impacted and evaluate. Whether rescue or flip would need at least one level...
Yes, but how to implement best damage controll. Because: First scout have to be very small, if we want more troops...
-We have to have smaller targets(pips), when higher level rescues... it is dangerous... one mistake and.....
  • #16,492
  • Jun 15, 2010 12:04pm Jun 15, 2010 12:04pm
Quoting Fana
For answer
you know your having a good day when you give the answers to questions you dont.

cheers
  • #16,493
  • Jun 15, 2010 12:07pm Jun 15, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting Baifu
Fana there are many examples of this mode in the thread.

I think we can play any manner of number game to suit our capitalization and situation. For rescue we can sum up all positions to reset as base 1 (as you have done with 7), or we can split a larger number into components, such as in attack skip to the right then skew inwards to maintain a good distance to current price as buffer against retrace.

There was an exmple where a poster had 1 lot in deep trouble and fti suggested he rescue with 1 lot (I think that was all the resource...
Base is - in trend = speedy(quick) profit, in thickening(low volatility) = big profit.Why?
  • #16,494
  • Edited 2:28pm Jun 15, 2010 12:39pm | Edited 2:28pm
Quoting Fana
Yes, but how to implement best damage controll. Because: First scout have to be very small, if we want more troops...
-We have to have smaller targets(pips), when higher level rescues... it is dangerous... one mistake and.....
I agree, the mentality of the general fighting for every troop give us near 100% win rate, and the tsunami. How to find the equilibrium? Tough indeed, we all have to find our way I guess.

rgs
Baifu
edit: for lack of anything constructive I can offer re damage control, let me quote this Dutch Angel mantra:
"damage is part of the battle, recovery is essential , victory is the objective"
  • #16,495
  • Jun 15, 2010 1:40pm Jun 15, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting Gro
Base is - in trend = speedy(quick) profit, in thickening(low volatility) = big profit.Why?
Why
  • #16,496
  • Edited 2:24pm Jun 15, 2010 2:13pm | Edited 2:24pm
Quoting Baifu
Why
maybe my bad english?

not understand or not translate?
  • #16,497
  • Edited 2:45pm Jun 15, 2010 2:34pm | Edited 2:45pm
I thing, that this can prove big boys activity in the market...

And it makes Higher highs... So it should be bull. But it is not matter of hh, hl, but that angle, that steady change of prize...
When this is formed by highs of candles-bearish or lows of candles-bullish. No matter of the direction..

-prize and time squares along the trendline in an angle... There is acurate relationship.

.....................just maybe for some inspiration bla,blah.... :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gann.JPG Size: 74 KB
  • #16,498
  • Jun 15, 2010 2:53pm Jun 15, 2010 2:53pm
Quoting Fana
I thing, that this can prove big boys activity in the market...

And it makes Higher highs... So it should be bull. But it is not matter of hh, hl, but that angle, that steady change of prize...
When this is formed by highs of candles-bearish or lows of candles-bullish. No matter of the direction..

-prize and time squares along the trendline in an angle... There is acurate relationship.

.....................just maybe for some inspiration bla,blah.... :-)
Your inspiration is interesting
  • #16,499
  • Jun 15, 2010 3:00pm Jun 15, 2010 3:00pm
Here... Did you ever take a note, that these formations are obvious and are not rare?

Look at Gold for example. It is very acurate like this. Does it mean, that there are only few real big Gold traders?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gann2.JPG Size: 26 KB
  • #16,500
  • Jun 15, 2010 3:06pm Jun 15, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting Gro
maybe my bad english?

not understand or not translate?
Sorry, not following .........
"not understand or not translate?" Not sure if you are giving out information or asking for information

"Base is - in trend = speedy(quick) profit, in thickening(low volatility) = big profit.Why?"

Is this a Zen koan (riddle)?

in trend, quick profit. okay if you can attack like fti
in thickening (low volatility) = big profit. What is thickening(low volatility), is it congestion? If yes no big profit - have to limit exposure in case range break against us, no?

Rgs
Baifu
19 traders viewing now