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James16+Rayanmcd(Jan kone) and ME 7 replies

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Jankone M5 thread

  • #3,581
  • Jun 11, 2010 9:52am Jun 11, 2010 9:52am
Quoting Hova
would
....
its AU M15, beautiful but stopped out @ BE (first blue rectangle) Target was daily pivot (2nd blue rectangle)
hello Hova,
a little suggestion, if u trade with the trend,
try to give price a little room to breathe in exchange for a possibility of exploiting the trend. if it's CT trade, then we could be more strict & quick in putting SL to BE.
-u base exits on pivots often? i hope u consider S/R or PPZ more as exits (than pivots; if u havent done so). or use both, if u are comfortable with them.
-i checked aud$ chart too
*your daily pivot seem to be in the vicinity of a minor PPZ.
*on higher timeframes, M30 - H4, price seem to be in an uptrend. in that sense, u traded a CT trade or a mini down trend... or a minor retracement (based on the higher timeframes)

nice trade Sir.
& thanks, i think we were looking at jajo's chart at the same time.
  • #3,582
  • Jun 11, 2010 10:06am Jun 11, 2010 10:06am
Quoting supremeChaos
hello Hova,
a little suggestion, if u trade with the trend,
try to give price a little room to breathe in exchange for a possibility of exploiting the trend. if it's CT trade, then we could be more strict & quick in putting SL to BE.
-u base exits on pivots often? i hope u consider S/R or PPZ more as exits (than pivots; if u havent done so). or use both, if u are comfortable with them.
-i checked aud$ chart too
*your daily pivot seem to be in the vicinity of a minor PPZ.
*on higher timeframes, M30 - H4, price seem to be in an uptrend. in that sense,...
Still working on the right exit strategy, as everyone does
Im doing good to move SL to BE on the last lows/highs and take the next pivot/sr/ppz as exit usually shoud give at least 1:1, this time it worked out well

your right, AU is in an uptrend on longer term, but i consider this a mini down trend as you would say, knowing that this was a retracement.
On M15 21EMA + BB was down so i was comfortable doing this trade.

After the trade was closed i realised that it was also the 6th wave (elliot wave) so probably i should have taken profit @ 1:1 ?

your comments are always appreciated
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #3,583
  • Jun 11, 2010 10:14am Jun 11, 2010 10:14am
Hova,
6th wave? im not very familiar with EW.
but i think u were referring to the wave from the 0.8508 down to 0.8426 area.
yes, u could have exited there.
maybe u can try trading with 2 or more positions (example, 2 or 3lots instead of just 1 lot). u can exit half (or 2/3 or 3/4's) of your position at 1:1 or a PPZ or S/R, then leave remaining position/s in BE or BE+X (X is any number of pips)

Hope that helps
  • #3,584
  • Jun 11, 2010 10:21am Jun 11, 2010 10:21am
Quoting supremeChaos
Hova,
6th wave? im not very familiar with EW.
but i think u were referring to the wave from the 0.8508 down to 0.8426 area.
yes, u could have exited there.
maybe u can try trading with 2 or more positions (example, 2 or 3lots instead of just 1 lot). u can exit half (or 2/3 or 3/4's) of your position at 1:1 or a PPZ or S/R, then leave remaining position/s in BE or BE+X (X is any number of pips)

Hope that helps
Yeah EW helped me a lot, take a look @ babypips its so easy but powerfull.
For now i will go on using my exit strategy lookin how it works on the next 20-30 trades.

I know taking partial profit and let the rest run is king and i will do when account grows/im trading more lots, but using the next 2 sr/pivot/ppz zones works well but i will see

have a nice weekend !
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #3,585
  • Jun 11, 2010 10:29am Jun 11, 2010 10:29am
Thanks Hova,
will take a look. i plan to read books about it too, sooner or later.

i have small accounts too.
u have the right to improve your account by letting trades run
we small account holders (even by trading a small number of lots/positions) can do it from time to time..

btw, 20 - 30 trades might not be enough as a strategy test sample.
+/-100 trades would be better (or minimum). of course, the more, the merrier.

a Fruitful weekend to u & all!
  • #3,586
  • Jun 11, 2010 10:40am Jun 11, 2010 10:40am
Quoting supremeChaos
Thanks Hova,
will take a look. i plan to read books about it too, sooner or later.

i have small accounts too.
u have the right to improve your account by letting trades run
we small account holders (even by trading a small number of lots/positions) can do it from time to time..

btw, 20 - 30 trades might not be enough as a strategy test sample.
+/-100 trades would be better (or minimum). of course, the more, the merrier.

a Fruitful weekend to u & all!
your right with 100+ trades, the more the better

thx for advice
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #3,587
  • Jun 11, 2010 1:10pm Jun 11, 2010 1:10pm
Quoting supremeChaos
hello jajo,
i checked my $jpy M5 chart (FXPro too)
quick observations:
-why did u say trend was Down?
if u look at late June10 or early June11, price was moving up, making higher highs & lows (when i look at higher timeframes, price seem to be in a range from around June7)
-that pin is a proof that price has not made a good/strong lower swing low. during the formation of that pinbar, price did move down (compared to the price low around point A), BUT price quickly pushed up forming a big M5 PB.
[b]u had analysis paralysis because u gave more weight...
Thanks a lot for your advices Unfortunately ... I considered only M5 timeframe for trend direction I saw lower highs what lead me to conclusion that temporary trend is down. This is why I was waiting for divergence I have been trading PB for weeks and every day added additional rules what made me totally confused this week and I had difficulty to find trades which will fulfill all my rules So I completely agree with analysis paralysis
  • #3,588
  • Jun 11, 2010 1:12pm Jun 11, 2010 1:12pm
Quoting Hova
would not be a pin for me, i took a look @ fxpro chart and i would not consider this a+ pin, however for a better look you should hope that supremeChaos takes a look at it. His analysis is the best response you can get, besides from jankone/ryanmcd

attached is the only trade i took today, notice that i only trade with trend, no CT stuff for my account

its AU M15, beautiful but stopped out @ BE (first blue rectangle) Target was daily pivot (2nd blue rectangle)
That PB was not perfect ... but it had good location for me
  • #3,589
  • Jun 11, 2010 10:22pm Jun 11, 2010 10:22pm
Sorry to say this, but those "perfect PBs" as they are called by many are not so perfect from a risk/reward perspective. In fact, they are pretty much as bad as you get (RSI div or not). The longer the wick, the more volatile the price action. Without back testing this is just speculation, but the profit curve on this method could easily go through some very rough DDs at one point.
  • #3,590
  • Jun 12, 2010 1:27am Jun 12, 2010 1:27am
I think "perfect PB" does not mean ultra long wick, but rather shape where PA is telling you that price was rejected on some S/R level and came directly on the start during certain time period. But it is good point ... no dount that huge wick means volatility ... I have seen it during news releases.
  • #3,591
  • Jun 12, 2010 3:58am Jun 12, 2010 3:58am
Quoting fxterrapin
Sorry to say this, but those "perfect PBs" as they are called by many are not so perfect from a risk/reward perspective. In fact, they are pretty much as bad as you get (RSI div or not). The longer the wick, the more volatile the price action. Without back testing this is just speculation, but the profit curve on this method could easily go through some very rough DDs at one point.
Well it is not about perfect pin bars or any bar it is about LOCATION!!!
  • #3,592
  • Jun 13, 2010 6:17am Jun 13, 2010 6:17am
Quoting jajo
....I have been trading PB for weeks and every day added additional rules what made me totally confused this week and I had difficulty to find trades which will fulfill all my rules...
every day u added rules?
how many rules that totaled to?

it's ok to have rules. it breeds patience & discipline. hopefully these emanate from your rules
  • #3,593
  • Jun 13, 2010 7:56am Jun 13, 2010 7:56am
Unfortunately yes ... What I did was that each time I made a trade I tried to make some general conclusion from it. Especially when my trade failed. I needed something to explaing WHY it failed. So I added some new rule and applied it to all next trades. Now I got into phase where I have so much rules I barely take any trades and miss good setups. Now I understand that I have no chance to make general conclusions just from 1 trade. I plan to do the same ans Ryanmcd did ... print years of charts and analize it to find patterns which works most of the times
  • #3,594
  • Jun 13, 2010 8:01am Jun 13, 2010 8:01am
Quote
I plan to do the same ans Ryanmcd did ... print years of charts and analize it to find patterns which works most of the times http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...im/winking.gif
jajo,
1 of the best ways to learn

as for the rules, u can start with the rules mentioned by jankone. stick with it, then improve from there.
be sure to improve your understanding of S/R (through reading of james16 thread)
Good luck!
  • #3,595
  • Jun 13, 2010 8:06am Jun 13, 2010 8:06am
Quoting jajo
Unfortunately yes ... What I did was that each time I made a trade I tried to make some general conclusion from it. Especially when my trade failed. I needed something to explaing WHY it failed. So I added some new rule and applied it to all next trades. Now I got into phase where I have so much rules I barely take any trades and miss good setups. Now I understand that I have no chance to make general conclusions just from 1 trade. I plan to do the same ans Ryanmcd did ... print years of charts and analize it to find patterns which works most of...
but remember trading success is not all about the pattern that works.
mostly its depend on how you trade.how you react when you trade the setup.
keep it simple as much as you can.
good trading to you
regards
sho
  • #3,596
  • Jun 13, 2010 8:11am Jun 13, 2010 8:11am
Quote
..mostly it depends on how you trade. how you react when you trade the setup...
very good point Sir.
this comes from years of experience.
my aim is to continuously improve through the years.
  • #3,597
  • Jun 14, 2010 5:50pm Jun 14, 2010 5:50pm
I'm doing some backtesting this week on taking 'with trend' trades. I want to see if setups are stronger if taken after we have a lower low. In essence this confirms that we are moving to a new trend and that the trade is indeed with a trend (versus flat or against trend)...

Notice this chart. The trade is on a pullback to the midBB/ema. But the prior swing low was not a lower low from the previous swing low... perhaps this had something to do with why it failed...

Using the SMA(50) would have showed a very slightly downward sloping line - very early in a new trend if it had followed through.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu lower low....gif Size: 21 KB
  • #3,598
  • Jun 15, 2010 12:36am Jun 15, 2010 12:36am
Hey Josh,
i checked FXPro live chart a few hours earlier.
to me, 50sma is flat at that time (yellow box), with a very very slight downward slope prior the yellow box.
also, 50sma is slow to change/adapt, compared to faster MAs like 21ema. (specially since 50SMA is an SMA; EMAs & LWMAs are more adaptive to price movements)
also, u are correct about using HH/LH (higher/lower high) & HL/LL (higher/lower low) to determine trend - it could be a filter.
  • #3,599
  • Jun 15, 2010 1:30am Jun 15, 2010 1:30am
any1 got into that outside bar on ej ? was no trade for me b/c i only play pins master one setup and then go one sep further i told myself....hope that was right^^
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #3,600
  • Jun 15, 2010 3:50am Jun 15, 2010 3:50am
in & out in quick 10 mins

and yes i noticed strong sr lines below, but i did not think, i just acted^^

its ej m5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ejm5.jpg Size: 127 KB
Never whishing, always trading.
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