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Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

  • #501
  • Edited 1:36am Apr 12, 2010 1:09am | Edited 1:36am
Quoting TGpop
hmmm huge gap up in eurusd: big boys buying up as Greece gets bailed out? i
A lot of the positions was closed on Friday and many traders stayed out for weekend, because it was expected few questionable but very important decisions (loan for Greece and Yuan revaluation). That huge gap was caused by low volatility.
I don't know now anything about the Yuan, but the Greece loan was approved. It causes risk appetite, so EURUSD goes up, but wait few hours after the European open to see the real reaction of the market and big boys.
There is a chance for a short term bull trend on EURUSD but I think it will only be a good situation to place your short positions. In medium and long term I think it has to go down. The recovery of EU economy is much slower then economy of US.
This week will be very interesting and full of US economic data and Greece will try to sell some bonds on Tuesday.
Don't touch, just look...
  • #502
  • Apr 12, 2010 4:54pm Apr 12, 2010 4:54pm
correct me if i'm wrong; but when we say china's tightening of money will reduce demand for commodities; why not just short the likes of copper etc rather than shorting the AUD?
  • #503
  • Apr 13, 2010 1:18am Apr 13, 2010 1:18am
Quoting TGpop
correct me if i'm wrong; but when we say china's tightening of money will reduce demand for commodities; why not just short the likes of copper etc rather than shorting the AUD?
Well, you can ask yourself: Why do I trade currencies on forex market, if I can trade futures on comodity market?
Don't touch, just look...
  • #504
  • Apr 13, 2010 10:45am Apr 13, 2010 10:45am
Quoting Aqw3R
Well, you can ask yourself: Why do I trade currencies on forex market, if I can trade futures on comodity market?
well if i wanted to trade global-macro style as razorjack kind of does; why limit to FX pairs? just saying; wouldn't going short copper be a more direct way?
  • #505
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:20pm Apr 13, 2010 12:20pm
Quoting TGpop
well if i wanted to trade global-macro style as razorjack kind of does; why limit to FX pairs? just saying; wouldn't going short copper be a more direct way?
I'm not comodity trader, so I'm not sure about that, but I think it's not the same to trade copper and AUDUSD (in fundamental meaning)... Ofcourse, you are free to trade more than currencies, for example comodities, CFD, options...
Don't touch, just look...
  • #506
  • Apr 20, 2010 7:22am Apr 20, 2010 7:22am
USDCAD continues to trend down; could the US growing and oil demand increasing help to send this pair lower?

if so, then why has it been trending down at the time when the US was slow? was it due to oil rising?
  • #507
  • Apr 21, 2010 1:56am Apr 21, 2010 1:56am
Quoting TGpop
USDCAD continues to trend down; could the US growing and oil demand increasing help to send this pair lower?

if so, then why has it been trending down at the time when the US was slow? was it due to oil rising?
I think yes, it was also caused by the raising oil price.
But the whole Canadian economy strengthens -> increased inflationary risks -> Bank of Canada raises rates -> CAD is going up -> USDCAD is going down.
The trend on USDCAD is bullish and the market expects next rate raise in June.
Don't touch, just look...
  • #508
  • May 5, 2010 2:23pm May 5, 2010 2:23pm
anyone catch that EURUSD move? sure was pretty.

Basically i've been studying the two states of the global markets: risk appetite or risk aversion, those two are a huge part of the equation in determining fundamental changes .

For example the dollar is gaining on the yen, the AUD is gaining on the dollar and the yen so im buying strongest selling weakest here! (AUDJPY)
  • #509
  • May 6, 2010 1:29am May 6, 2010 1:29am
Quoting TGpop
anyone catch that EURUSD move? sure was pretty.

Basically i've been studying the two states of the global markets: risk appetite or risk aversion, those two are a huge part of the equation in determining fundamental changes .

For example the dollar is gaining on the yen, the AUD is gaining on the dollar and the yen so im buying strongest selling weakest here! (AUDJPY)
I'm still in. There is nothing to stop the bear move on EURUSD now. ECB may have to return to Quantitative Easing program because those problems in Greece and posible problems in other EU countries. Quantitative Easing cause lower price of the currency, so EURUSD will go more down. Just sell the rallies.
Don't touch, just look...
  • #510
  • Edited 1:48pm May 6, 2010 1:34pm | Edited 1:48pm
Oh my god, there is massive risk aversion all over the world.
Yen crosses made huge falls today. EURJPY -5,7% for now today! It's 760 pips in one day! UDSJPY made about 420 pips!
I have no idea what will happen in next days... I closed most of my positions for now. I have doubled my account in about 4 days! lol It was little bit risky, but it was sure that EURUSD will go down...
There is still nothing to break the fall of EURUSD on the sight... and I have nothing to say to yen crosses...
I'm interested to see VIX for today.
Edit: Those numbers are still not finall for today, risk aversion continues and those moves too.
Don't touch, just look...
  • #511
  • May 6, 2010 6:46pm May 6, 2010 6:46pm
Razorjack,

Although I don't currently trade this way I have enjoyed your posts and your thought processes.

Your effort in posting them here is much appreciated.
  • #512
  • May 15, 2010 6:40am May 15, 2010 6:40am
razorjack would you say sentiment is also an important part of the 'big picture'? . obviously with the euro PIGS greece etc, france threatening to leave it's all a bit fearful..
  • #513
  • May 17, 2010 1:46pm May 17, 2010 1:46pm
the razor is online again!


welcome back , have good trading? i had my best demo trade ever with the USDJPY thanks to some principles laid here
  • #514
  • May 19, 2010 3:20am May 19, 2010 3:20am
Contagion fears, stock markets looking volatile....

=risk aversion? dollar=safety and AUD/NZD/GBP are selling across the board,not to mention euro's demise...long dollars please
  • #515
  • May 30, 2010 5:55pm May 30, 2010 5:55pm
for those still around; check out these brillaint banking and finance videos !!!
www.youtube.com/user/khanacademy#p/search
  • #516
  • May 31, 2010 3:18pm May 31, 2010 3:18pm
Quoting TGpop
for those still around; check out these brillaint banking and finance videos !!!
www.youtube.com/user/khanacademy#p/search
Many thanks for that link. That guy and his website is really something special. The best single source educational site I've ever seen on the Net.
  • #517
  • May 31, 2010 5:03pm May 31, 2010 5:03pm
Quoting Slack
Many thanks for that link. That guy and his website is really something special. The best single source educational site I've ever seen on the Net.
certainly, no matter how many times i read victor sperandeo's FED section i just can't digest it. This guy's short 10 minute or less videos really work!
  • #518
  • Jun 12, 2010 8:05am Jun 12, 2010 8:05am
Hello guys,
Can any one tell me a good forex provider with reasonable spreads on most currency pairs in Australia?
  • #519
  • Jun 13, 2010 9:59am Jun 13, 2010 9:59am
Quoting allesf
Hello guys,
Can any one tell me a good forex provider with reasonable spreads on most currency pairs in Australia?
Wrong thread buddy...
Don't touch, just look...
  • #520
  • Aug 17, 2010 11:21am Aug 17, 2010 11:21am
bump from the depths of hell!
i'm looking to short EURUSD at some point, any insights?
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