Dislikedclassic exhaustion. anyone made a killing shorting gbp today? i think im just lucky lately...can feel its running out soon lol!Ignored
Technical Analysis Fallacy
- #16,362
- Edited 10:56am Jun 11, 2010 10:13am | Edited 10:56am
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,219 Posts
- #16,363
- Edited Jun 12, 2010 3:10am Jun 11, 2010 2:42pm | Edited Jun 12, 2010 3:10am
Another take on spiral within spiral, June 11 2008 post #2995:
"Originally Posted by Zoran
Ahh, I have been wondering about that. Reversing but I am not certain. If my rescue point is 100 or 200 pips away, do I wait, perhaps unload a bit and rescue or do I reverse?
Hi Zoran ,
I say again,
小艇怕風浪 , 大船難轉彎
( Small Boats are afraid of wind and waves turbulence, Big Ships have difficulty to to turn.)
When you are scout mode, turning is easy ,
when you are in rescue , turning leaves too much resources behind.
Turning is an option for sudden change of impulse,
and only when in scout mode or early level rescue.
when you are in rescue or attack mode , then you are committed,
for good or bad, in sickness or health, till d do you part.
therefore turning is no-longer an option.
Note that when you decide to turn.
you have to move to the next spiral within the spiral,
therefore you move to stage 2 of the preceeding stage.
This is very cap intensive protocol.
-----------"
I propose we dissect the word "stage"
junior 1,1,2 is stage 1,
senior 4,4,8 is stage 2 (reset junior troops 4 to senior base 1)
fti taking over from senior: 20,20,40 is stage 3? (edit: correction 16,16,32)
When fti described the above bank protocol he used "level" where I label "stage", by reverse logic is the "stage 2" in post #2995 actually "level"? In the fibo skew each number is also designated a level, such as 8 is level 6. Enough word split, let's say the same word can describe different things and the same thing is sometimes described by different words, this is the art of fat finger typing.
"Originally Posted by Zoran
Ahh, I have been wondering about that. Reversing but I am not certain. If my rescue point is 100 or 200 pips away, do I wait, perhaps unload a bit and rescue or do I reverse?
Hi Zoran ,
I say again,
小艇怕風浪 , 大船難轉彎
( Small Boats are afraid of wind and waves turbulence, Big Ships have difficulty to to turn.)
When you are scout mode, turning is easy ,
when you are in rescue , turning leaves too much resources behind.
Turning is an option for sudden change of impulse,
and only when in scout mode or early level rescue.
when you are in rescue or attack mode , then you are committed,
for good or bad, in sickness or health, till d do you part.
therefore turning is no-longer an option.
Note that when you decide to turn.
you have to move to the next spiral within the spiral,
therefore you move to stage 2 of the preceeding stage.
This is very cap intensive protocol.
-----------"
I propose we dissect the word "stage"
junior 1,1,2 is stage 1,
senior 4,4,8 is stage 2 (reset junior troops 4 to senior base 1)
fti taking over from senior: 20,20,40 is stage 3? (edit: correction 16,16,32)
When fti described the above bank protocol he used "level" where I label "stage", by reverse logic is the "stage 2" in post #2995 actually "level"? In the fibo skew each number is also designated a level, such as 8 is level 6. Enough word split, let's say the same word can describe different things and the same thing is sometimes described by different words, this is the art of fat finger typing.
- #16,364
- Edited Jun 13, 2010 12:55am Jun 12, 2010 8:54am | Edited Jun 13, 2010 12:55am
Post #3050 fti:
“The 3kingdom relationship can only be observed, and cannot be penned. It is because the relationship changes through different stages of its cross-intercourse and can move away from the norm. It is this observations of abnormalities that gives clues to the status. However one thing is that when they move in sync then that is the "BIG,MAJOR,SUPER" trend, so don't get caught trading against that.”
When price is directional (majors trending) 3K is In sync:
USD bull – U/J up, E/U and G/U down
USD bear – U/J down, E/U and G/U up
When price is not directional (congestion), 3K cannot sync, the same reason (non-directional price) that causes price envelope using H/L to move outside envelope using closing price because intrabar H/L is more volatile than interbar close.
I remember (from memory, correction welcome) reading a battle station post where fti was short E/U and in trouble but he saw G/U topping and that gave him the confidence to hold on, another time he mentioned using R3K to choose a carrier currency. He also wrote E/U usually leads, if G/U leads, stalls and E/U takes over then it shows money is being moved from market to market (illiquid market).
Post #16346 Zoran:
“Now when we take a position, say long USD, we can short EUR/USD. As a hedge we can also short cable GBP/USD and long yen USD/JPY. In this way we are hedged but we are now managing three different currencies. This I believe is the spiral within spiral and why fti regards it as a can of worms. Some people have enough difficulties managing one pair but to manage three with planning possible rescues would be overload for the inexperienced.”
Short E/U and hedge with long U/J and short G/U
R3K is in sync and USD bull we win 3X
R3K is in sync and USD bear we lose 3X
R3K is not in sync we need 3X dancing feet
anything can happen
Where is the hedge, to hedging our bet until the choice of carrier is clear? Or is this just food for thought from the ongoing detective work.
Rgs
Baifu
“The 3kingdom relationship can only be observed, and cannot be penned. It is because the relationship changes through different stages of its cross-intercourse and can move away from the norm. It is this observations of abnormalities that gives clues to the status. However one thing is that when they move in sync then that is the "BIG,MAJOR,SUPER" trend, so don't get caught trading against that.”
When price is directional (majors trending) 3K is In sync:
USD bull – U/J up, E/U and G/U down
USD bear – U/J down, E/U and G/U up
When price is not directional (congestion), 3K cannot sync, the same reason (non-directional price) that causes price envelope using H/L to move outside envelope using closing price because intrabar H/L is more volatile than interbar close.
I remember (from memory, correction welcome) reading a battle station post where fti was short E/U and in trouble but he saw G/U topping and that gave him the confidence to hold on, another time he mentioned using R3K to choose a carrier currency. He also wrote E/U usually leads, if G/U leads, stalls and E/U takes over then it shows money is being moved from market to market (illiquid market).
Post #16346 Zoran:
“Now when we take a position, say long USD, we can short EUR/USD. As a hedge we can also short cable GBP/USD and long yen USD/JPY. In this way we are hedged but we are now managing three different currencies. This I believe is the spiral within spiral and why fti regards it as a can of worms. Some people have enough difficulties managing one pair but to manage three with planning possible rescues would be overload for the inexperienced.”
Short E/U and hedge with long U/J and short G/U
R3K is in sync and USD bull we win 3X
R3K is in sync and USD bear we lose 3X
R3K is not in sync we need 3X dancing feet
anything can happen Where is the hedge, to hedging our bet until the choice of carrier is clear? Or is this just food for thought from the ongoing detective work.
Rgs
Baifu
- #16,365
- Jun 12, 2010 11:39am Jun 12, 2010 11:39am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Pip pip | 2,692 Posts
Short E/U and hedge with long U/J and short G/U
R3K is in sync and USD bull we win 3X
R3K is in sync and USD bear we lose 3X
R3K is not in sync we need 3X dancing feet
[size=3][font=Calibri]Where is the hedge, to hedging our bet until the choice of carrier is clear? Or is this just food for thought from the ongoing detective...
- #16,367
- Jun 12, 2010 2:16pm Jun 12, 2010 2:16pm
This is the post that made me have doubts. I suspected that "spiral within spiral" meant different things or is a basic concept that can be applied in different ways. As fti mentioned, "there are no rules".
No mention of multiple pairs here but that is just another way of using it I suspect.
sold EurX2@ 1.5524
Why?
sold Eur X 1 @ 1.5511
Why?
Post #3065 fti answer:
Anyways theanswer to the question was that the position were scout positions initiated at different stages on a skewed-in base.
It seems scouts can be multiple and divisible, skewed-in or skewed-out.
For me TAF basics is strong mindset
, dance and active management of positions 
. MO and MM are up to us. Rgs
Baifu
- #16,369
- Edited 6:59pm Jun 12, 2010 5:49pm | Edited 6:59pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: (Latin: statūs), rank, state | 3,127 Posts
- #16,373
- Jun 13, 2010 8:49am Jun 13, 2010 8:49am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
Hi all,
I wish fti likes my new dance moves...
...
- #16,374
- Jun 13, 2010 8:51am Jun 13, 2010 8:51am
Hi Baifu
Daily trend is a major and then open the time window (E/U,G/U,U/Y) = different time to open windows "then back leg and front leg the swing play ... and the game continues"
You want to hedge or profit?
As usual your post require much thinking over
In the meanwhile I came across more goodies from fti on R3K from post #3467, july 16 2008 (E/U topped July 15):
when major spots do not move in sync , it is normally due to crosses driven by underlying fundamntals, When this happens, NORMALLYhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...ed_eyebrow.gif the greenbag is not in trend mode. you have to get some experience in watching , the kingdom characteristics to know how to indentify , which is which.
When there are influencial fundementals, as in now they move by their own momentum. (tear from sync activities)
Eg this week, the USD/Yen is tearing from mainstream sync , due to that the swift drop in oil prices is prompting hedgers in Japan who bought USD for oil stockpiles unwinding their hedge.
The underlying dangers on the Japan industry is relief , therefore some unwinding, and the tear happens.
Rgs
Baifu
- #16,376
- Edited 10:14am Jun 13, 2010 9:27am | Edited 10:14am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: (Latin: statūs), rank, state | 3,127 Posts
- #16,377
- Jun 13, 2010 10:04am Jun 13, 2010 10:04am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
auxesis, everyone,
thank you for your latest post.
thank you for your latest post.
- #16,378
- Edited 12:13pm Jun 13, 2010 11:29am | Edited 12:13pm
Baifu,
My humble attempt to define purpose of skewing, in doing so think about your notion of spiral in spiral, if it pertains to spreading or pyramiding the poistions of a certain level, i.e. if entering level 4 (for example 8 troops) i'm going to break up that level into another spiral 1,2,5?
What we try to manage is our position in relation to current price, please note the profit taken can also be tracked or calculated against any remaining average position.
By adding to a position inside a spiral skew, gives us a mathematical curve...
you said what I want to say, only much better
.“If you break up your levels into smaller units of the whole, the mindset needs to be on your average vs. market, holding the larger portions may defeat the goal and invite a weaker mindset?” agreed, I gravitate towards working with high skew because it gives me more room to be wrong, but this should not be an excuse to stay a poor dancer. I put less emphasis on “analysis” and “setup” than other peeps, and rely more on my spies, scouts, riders, raiders and kamis (taking inspiration from AOW in assigning groupings, signs and signals to my troops). I don’t hold larger portions, only 20 out of 1250 troops ride the session out if my bias is with wind, they earn many pips but few € . The rest are in and out raiders. My sessions are more profitable when I am against wind and “forced” to have large exposure. Reading through the thread I realize this is natural beginner profile, I have a lot to learn.
Your graph gives a very nice visual of AP as function of position size skews, I have made similar studies skewing both position size and price (you assume constant step in entry price). I am not advocating using pre-determined price steps for scaling in – this should follow the dance – I am just familiarizing myself with the effects of skewing.
To bring AP closer to current price we should skew out position size (phi skew shown) and skew in price (0.8 skew shown). For example: with a run leg of 156 pips at level 13 (233) the difference to BE is 5% (1.618, 0.8) versus 13% (1.618,1) retrace of leg. With no skew (1,1) 46%
For attack when we want to keep far away from current price we should do the opposite (skew in position size and skew out price) similar finding as your graph to the right I guess.
Before I am beheaded let me repeat these tables are meaningless except to confirm it is advantageous (all things being equal) to be slow initially in averaging down and fast initially in pressing attack.
Rgs
Baifu
- #16,379
- Edited 12:34pm Jun 13, 2010 12:23pm | Edited 12:34pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: (Latin: statūs), rank, state | 3,127 Posts
- #16,380
- Edited 2:32pm Jun 13, 2010 2:08pm | Edited 2:32pm
Hope that makes sense.
I understand your constant linear is for a visual and to compare the effect of different skew ratio, I mention it only because until I made my little table I erroneously assumed skewing out both in position sizing and entry price is advantageous. I agree skew ratio and when to skew depend on PA.
After reading and re-reading battle station posts and annotating fti blotter on charts I think I get the feel (edit: or not, not seeing PA real time loses some feel) of waves of attack and profit taking. But there is theory and there is practice and it takes a lot of practice to get it right - getting it right not so much for profit pressing as for proper exposure control while applying skew. If not, ruin.
Rgs,
Baifu