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  • #541
  • Jun 12, 2010 4:23am Jun 12, 2010 4:23am
I got my 80 pip retrace and the touch of 1.2047 that I was looking for on Friday. Price should continue up this week to at least 1.2184 and until the dollar reaches the lows in the previous post.
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  • #542
  • Jun 12, 2010 4:28am Jun 12, 2010 4:28am
I am going to short the S&P at 1100 this week looking for a move down to the yellow lows at 1022 in June. Hopefully this top will match with a top on the aussie dollar and these markets will move down together regardless of what the euro and dollar index are doing.
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  • #543
  • Jun 13, 2010 12:54am Jun 13, 2010 12:54am
Quoting amyc
AU heading up this week to at least 8577. I will hold my longs until here. I think a move back down to 7995 will start this week but I can see 8615-18 first so I will be cautious in taking shorts. Also this is more than likely not going to match up with a bottom in the dollar index so another reason for caution.
how do you mean exactly that the top of this a/u rally before turning south for lower lows is not going to matchup with the bottom of dollar index?
  • #544
  • Jun 13, 2010 1:53am Jun 13, 2010 1:53am
Quoting OvT
how do you mean exactly that the top of this a/u rally before turning south for lower lows is not going to matchup with the bottom of dollar index?
The charts I posted for dx show I see it moving back into the 85 area, this is more than likely not not going to be hit by the time au hits 86.

AU and the S&P look like they are nearing a turning point, EU looks like it possibly has several hundred pips more to rise. AU is not part of the dollar index so maybe it doesn't matter but I still think it may struggle to move down too far while the dollar is also going down.
  • #545
  • Jun 13, 2010 4:23pm Jun 13, 2010 4:23pm
Decided to take profit on my eu longs at 1.2195. This also matches with the weekly highs. No shorts taken as I suspect after some pullback this might go higher.
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  • #546
  • Jun 13, 2010 6:12pm Jun 13, 2010 6:12pm
I am changing my mind on eu, i think this is a good sell point. It is in exactly the same setup as this time last Monday but in reverse.

4hr close below the green lows at 1.2184 with an 80 pip top at 1.1295. If the same move as last Monday plays out then it should move up into 1.2213 which is the 4hr highs then sell down. Last Monday just after gmt midnight it sold down to the 4hr lows at 1.1876 then moved up.
If price is above 1.2213 then it probably going higher.
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  • #547
  • Edited 9:17pm Jun 13, 2010 8:48pm | Edited 9:17pm
I have taken profit on my au longs at 8570, this is a 40 pip top so some retrace is expected and its not worth haggling over 7 more pips. No shorts entered on this pair yet. Shorts will be taken between 8577 and 8629, stops above 8630.

Some shorts have been taken on eu at 1.2185 but I am still expecting 1.2213 so waiting to add to this position.

S&P should move higher into the 1100-1105 area later on on Monday this might pull currencies up with it to more attractive selling points.
  • #548
  • Jun 14, 2010 12:41am Jun 14, 2010 12:41am
Quoting amyc
The charts I posted for dx show I see it moving back into the 85 area, this is more than likely not not going to be hit by the time au hits 86.

AU and the S&P look like they are nearing a turning point, EU looks like it possibly has several hundred pips more to rise. AU is not part of the dollar index so maybe it doesn't matter but I still think it may struggle to move down too far while the dollar is also going down.
ok yep i got what you mean now, i do trade a/u with reference of dollar index, which makes me forget sometimes that a/u is not part of it

on the dollar index side, if it goes down and hit the support again, we might see it heading up again, that's probably when everything else resume bearish, though a bit hard to judge when it'll be for a/u

thx, and as always, good work and goodluck
  • #549
  • Jun 14, 2010 2:25am Jun 14, 2010 2:25am
No shorts for today.
For au will look again tomorrow as long as price is not above 8630.
EU looks to be heading back to the 1.24 area.
  • #550
  • Jun 14, 2010 3:59pm Jun 14, 2010 3:59pm
S&P move up into the green highs and back down played out as expected on Monday. This should now move back into the midpoint at 1082 on Tuesday. If Tuesday has a daily close below 1082 then this is very bearish and price should continue down and close on its lows on Friday.

If 1082 holds then it will move back up into 1112. If this market has a weekly close above 1112 then for me the bearishness is all but over. But I don't believe that is the case. Target in June is 1022, target overall for the move down is 970.
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  • #551
  • Edited 5:40pm Jun 14, 2010 4:07pm | Edited 5:40pm
AU is in the same position, it has moved down from the green highs and as long as the next 4hr bar closes below it should be back into the green midpoints on Tuesday.
On Monday this pair moved up and tested the breakout of the Q2 lows. If this pair can't start moving down from these levels then it is going to be in the same situation as the S&P, no longer bearish.
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  • #552
  • Jun 14, 2010 5:02pm Jun 14, 2010 5:02pm
That maybe it for the retrace on the Dollar index. No shorts on eu yet though I might be tempted if it starts trading back below 1.2195.
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  • #553
  • Jun 15, 2010 3:19am Jun 15, 2010 3:19am
Anticipating a move on au down to 8482, potential seel point at 8590, sl 8593
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  • #554
  • Jun 15, 2010 5:54pm Jun 15, 2010 5:54pm
I am going to treat this upmove as continuing until the first or 2nd week of July. Chart below is EU daily. The move up of the June lows and then the open this week above the weekly pp is very bullish and usually leads to a move up into the next months highs which are the yellow highs currently sitting at 1.2421 but these will be pushed higher as price moves up over the next 2 weeks.

After that I am expecting another move to the lows.
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  • #555
  • Jun 15, 2010 5:57pm Jun 15, 2010 5:57pm
Same move for AU, there is a pattern that could see it move down from next weeks highs but I think that has lower probability of occuring at the moment. So at the moment I am looking for the upmove to continue up into the yellow July highs. These will also be much higher by the time price gets there.
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  • #556
  • Jun 15, 2010 6:10pm Jun 15, 2010 6:10pm
For the S&P there is a possibility that this has bottomed, I would like to see it move back to the yearly pivot at 970 in July but there is no reason it has to do this, the move I was looking to occur was a move down into the yellow lows which has happened.
It will depend were price is at the start of July as to whether one more move down happens but at the moment I am going to treat this market as continuing to move up into the July highs as well.

I think that the dollar index and indices will start moving in the same direction this year, I thought October might be when that started but maybe July will be the time if the S&P doesn't make one more move down.

For this week unless it moves higher on Wednesday i think a short term top is in place and it will consolidate with a downwards bias until next week.
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  • #557
  • Jun 15, 2010 6:49pm Jun 15, 2010 6:49pm
Below is S&P daily chart, looking back over the last 30 years of data not once during a bearish period has price traded above the green highs. That includes the entire period from October 2007- March 2009. So if price trades above 1121 this week then I think that indicies have put in a bottom. July will probably still be very volatile but it will probably not make new lows.
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  • #558
  • Jun 15, 2010 8:18pm Jun 15, 2010 8:18pm
I am going to try and trade EU down into the midpoint at 1.2206. It has hit the green highs on Tuesday and closed below matched with a 80 pip top. There is a pattern that should see it move up into 1.2367 first though, so 1.2367 will be my entry if I can get it. If it moves back to the midpoint then that is also a good long position especially if matched with an 80 pip bottom.
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  • #559
  • Jun 16, 2010 5:13pm Jun 16, 2010 5:13pm
AU and EU should be moving back to the midpoints, but even if they get there today I'm not sure that they are a good buy again until next week. This is bc I see the S&P moving down on Thursday and Friday. I haven't traded since Monday and probably won't until next week.

If the S&P moves back on Thursday and Friday and is sitting above support next week, support is the green midpoint currently at 1087, then next week could be a large move up which breaks out of the highs. This is a high probability setup. If this happens then it won't suprise me to see price back towards 1200 by the end of June. But if it is below the support then down it goes. If above support next week I will be buying to hold.
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  • #560
  • Jun 16, 2010 5:39pm Jun 16, 2010 5:39pm
Quoting amyc
AU and EU should be moving back to the midpoints, but even if they get there today I'm not sure that they are a good buy again until next week.
Totally agree with you. I just hope we can move up a bit beforehand with AU, GU and EU so me and Shahab's targets get hit and we can ride it down. Can't believe you haven't traded for a while. That is some self-control. Gald you are still posting though. I would be trading around aimlessly without your Long-Term analysis. Great stuff Amy. Thanks
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