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Silent Service Method

  • #9,081
  • Jun 10, 2010 10:12am Jun 10, 2010 10:12am
see attached chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.png Size: 36 KB
  • #9,082
  • Jun 10, 2010 10:15am Jun 10, 2010 10:15am
chart: Notice where we stopped thus far. Looks like 1.21 was a great place to short.
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.png Size: 38 KB
  • #9,083
  • Jun 10, 2010 10:49am Jun 10, 2010 10:49am
Quoting clockwork71
One problem: They also are going to have to unload those. If this thing unravels at the end of the day, (which it has been doing lately.) they are going to give a lot back. As they should. Bastards.

Sorry, my opinion slipped in there.

As a side note, I am watching the market slowly drift down again. We will see, it's only 1 pm. I am buying more SPY puts.
No need to worry about getting out of the SPs if said buying helped prop up an exponential amount of Euro trades. Whats 10MM if you are moving 100MM Euros?
  • #9,084
  • Jun 10, 2010 11:06am Jun 10, 2010 11:06am
Quoting clockwork71
WG lives in a different world than us. He is trading at a firm and as such, lives in the shorter-term markets. However, there is some merit to what he is saying in the sense that people are finally giving up on the Euro. Of course, I am a little more extreme: I think we will eventually be trading Marks, Guilders, and Francs.

As a side note, nobody looks better than White Goodman in a Mr. Incredible suit.
I do not think this is extreme at all. 10 years from now, I do not think the Euro exists. In the very least, it will be completely different than we see it today (either the goods or the bads are going to leave/get kicked out).
  • #9,085
  • Jun 10, 2010 11:51am Jun 10, 2010 11:51am
Quoting clockwork71
see attached chart:
CW,

Is the entry here on a break below the base of the pin the tested the rising trend line in this flag pattern or on the break of the rising support line?

I seem to be getting more confused by the day. I would have thought the break of the pin bar base was the signal. If it is then it's all ok. If its not then can you help me understand what I am sure is abundantly clear to everyone else
  • #9,086
  • Jun 10, 2010 12:12pm Jun 10, 2010 12:12pm
I really hate putting myself out here as the village-counter-trend-idiot, but for the sake of disclosure, I'm in two pattern trades right now that point to a sustained mid-term rally (US equities, euro, and all the other positively correlated instruments).

Am I right?

I don't know..... I am today.

Is Chris almost always right? Yes.

In looking back at the set-ups Chris has shown us over the last year, and he's pretty much been 100% right about direction/pair, though the recent volitility has made it challenging to get a good entry and stay in the trades.

Again this is tough for me because I'm often only right for a short time, but my trades speak of some prolonged upside potential, and they are:

usdchf short: 1st target 1.08ish
gbpusd long: only target 1.58

This is why I didn't short the kiwi, and am holding back on other trades that are clearly with the trend...I guess I'm just holding out for a better price for shorting.

Cheers.
  • #9,087
  • Jun 10, 2010 12:54pm Jun 10, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting clockwork71
chart: Notice where we stopped thus far. Looks like 1.21 was a great place to short.
I have been waiting for an opportunity to add to my EUR short.

I waited until after the price touched 1.2100 this morning, retreated a bit and started heading back up. I placed a sell at 1.2100 waiting for a second touch, not really believing that it was going to happen.

Now that I am in at 1.2100 I think it was a bit premature. I see strong SR at 2150. Will it hold? How far out should a place my stop?

Only time will tell.

Did anyone else short or add too at this level?
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  • #9,088
  • Jun 10, 2010 1:02pm Jun 10, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting Low
Again this is tough for me because I'm often only right for a short time...
If this is the type of trader that you are, you need to embrace it and make it work for you.

If you have not already read it, read 'Pit Bull', about Buzzy Schwartz. He typically made a 250% return each year as what he called a 'counter puncher'.

Here is a quote from his book.

"For the rest of September, I kept sparring, jabbing, punching, counter-punching, long a fifty-lot here, short a fifty-lot there, poking, all the time playing of my Telerate. The market overall was going nowhere. The S&Ps opened at 119.40 on September thirteenth and closed on the thirteenth at 119.35. But I was up $160,000 on small daily swings."
  • #9,089
  • Jun 10, 2010 1:45pm Jun 10, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting jharvey407
I have been waiting for an opportunity to add to my EUR short.

I waited until after the price touched 1.2100 this morning, retreated a bit and started heading back up. I placed a sell at 1.2100 waiting for a second touch, not really believing that it was going to happen.

Now that I am in at 1.2100 I think it was a bit premature. I see strong SR at 2150. Will it hold? How far out should a place my stop?

Only time will tell.

Did anyone else short or add too at this level?

It's as simple as this:

If you place an order to short something that obviously needs shorted, then in general, timing is the only issue.

Let us say that it goes against you, and goes all the way to 1.25 - so what? You have taken a small loss, to learn that you can short it even higher, and then in theory - could make it all back and then some!

I see what the EUR did today. I also saw what the stock markets did today. And I still don't care. I can read a chart, it's a good bounce, but how many of these have we had lately?
  • #9,090
  • Jun 10, 2010 1:47pm Jun 10, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting 4xAddict
CW,

Is the entry here on a break below the base of the pin the tested the rising trend line in this flag pattern or on the break of the rising support line?

I seem to be getting more confused by the day. I would have thought the break of the pin bar base was the signal. If it is then it's all ok. If its not then can you help me understand what I am sure is abundantly clear to everyone else

You can do either, but if you are waiting for a break of the flag.....then plan on being in this trade for a while. Certainly, you would love to be short at the break of the pin and have it go lower than the flag......but it's a little riskier.
  • #9,091
  • Jun 10, 2010 2:00pm Jun 10, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting jharvey407
If this is the type of trader that you are, you need to embrace it and make it work for you.
Sounds like a good read...coming to grips with the type of trader I am has (and still is ) been the biggest challenge for me.

It's one of the reasons I don't post as much as I used to, because I know I've graduated from novice, but still don't feel experienced enough to advise anyone else on anything.

I had a little ephipany lately too, last year I took one of those stupid trading-psychology tests that supposedly tells you what kind of trader you are and I'm an "adventurous trader"....not really what I wanted to hear..LOL.

It compared my style to some poker player who got so high on coke he only played one day of a tournament but won so much in that day the he still came in 9th even though he wasn't even at the table and the dealer just took his blinds for the next 4 days.

The recommended course of action for a trader like this was to look at what trade you wish to take, and then "fade" yourself. Well I thought that was silly...."so if I want to short the eurojpy, I should go long instead?"

Seems obvious in retrospect, but that test was right, only now I "fade myself" but looking at the trade I want and not taking it, because it's impulsive...and looking at the boring, no-brainer trade that lacks excitement but stands a really good chance of making me money, and taking it.

That was the answer all along...

So now I just sit here bored wanting to start new FF threads as I wait for trades to play themselves out.
  • #9,092
  • Jun 10, 2010 2:04pm Jun 10, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting clockwork71

Let us say that it goes against you, and goes all the way to 1.25 - so what? You have taken a small loss, to learn that you can short it even higher, and then in theory - could make it all back and then some!
I like this, I've been pondering incorporating Jacko's AH for when I do the right thing , but early (like all the time)

Quoting clockwork71
I can read a chart, it's a good bounce, but how many of these have we had lately?
No matter what US markets do that poor euro just can't seem to get a break...at least it will help their exports...LOL.
  • #9,093
  • Jun 10, 2010 4:01pm Jun 10, 2010 4:01pm
Quoting Low
I like this, I've been pondering incorporating Jacko's AH for when I do the right thing , but early (like all the time)



No matter what US markets do that poor euro just can't seem to get a break...at least it will help their exports...LOL.
Truth be known, a lot of the Europeans have stated openly that parity isn't the worst thing in the world. In fact, it would help them get back on their feet. It works for the US after all!
  • #9,094
  • Jun 10, 2010 9:12pm Jun 10, 2010 9:12pm
Mexico 2
S. Africa 1

France 2
Uruguay 0


I really, really, really hope I am wrong. Both these teams are among my least favorite.
  • #9,095
  • Jun 10, 2010 10:49pm Jun 10, 2010 10:49pm
You know what sucks about being long the pound/dollar?

BP accounts for 1 of every 6 Pounds in dividends paid in the UK.

Every time BP takes a hit, so do all retired UK-state pensioners.

At this rate The UK will be forced to bail them out eventually, and we all know what will happen to the pound then.
  • #9,096
  • Jun 10, 2010 11:51pm Jun 10, 2010 11:51pm
DJ's latest news print off the wires:

"0431 GMT [Dow Jones] U.S. hedge funds have been buying EUR/USD throughout day so far, senior dealer in Tokyo says they are probably adjusting portfolio since their previous positions too pessimistic on EUR. "On my trading screen, I can only see buy orders for the euro/dollar pair today. For example, one big U.S. hedge fund bought $250 million worth of the euro," he says. But pair lower at 1.2102 vs 1.2138 late NY Thursday, suggesting "there must be some short-term speculators who want to sell the euro at $1.21 levels." Says key resistance at 1.2150 based on charts; if EUR/USD rises above that level, pair would rise to 1.2250-1.2300, he says. ([email protected])"

I like the idea that those selling the Euro are to be considered "short term speculators". How long has this thing been plummeting?
  • #9,097
  • Jun 11, 2010 12:05am Jun 11, 2010 12:05am
Quoting TraderDavo
Doesn't this contradict what you are saying
yes and no, its more of a technical meets conspiracy theory regarding goldman rationale...

when everyone is ultra bearish on something and Goldman is the only one left buying you have to assume the direction its going is up...

though my view can literally change all the time, and until i see this major level breaking i cant help but think we've seen enough of this down leg for the near term...

of course any shock to the system should bust it, just has a feeling atm like 'they're' (whoever that is) is looking for any catalyst to keep this trend going downwards, or the negative bias to continue so they can accumulate. Last week 'oh Hungary is in trouble', next day 'bullsh*t it is blah blah'...

My long-ish view is that stock markets (specifically the US) is still going to go up and we will see minor corrections along the way naturally... until I start seeing bubble type buying and I wont be looking for the bust...

then again we are only a fat finger away from seeing the biggest drop in history
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #9,098
  • Jun 11, 2010 1:59am Jun 11, 2010 1:59am
Quoting clockwork71
Mexico 2
S. Africa 1

France 2
Uruguay 0


I really, really, really hope I am wrong. Both these teams are among my least favorite.
Hi clockwork

In my opinion, I think the result Uruguay vs France will be closer to a 1-1 score, just my 2 micro pips worth!!
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #9,099
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:01am Jun 11, 2010 2:01am
Quoting Ezzy
Hi clockwork

In my opinion, I think the result Uruguay vs France will be closer to a 1-1 score, just my 2 micro pips worth!!

........also Australia 1 Germany 1, can't help having a say on that one...I live in Australia.

Cheers
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #9,100
  • Jun 11, 2010 6:36am Jun 11, 2010 6:36am
I closed all my GBP sells, as I just don't like them right now. we are looking at a pretty good chance of closing above the 1.45 mark on the weekly, and I am starting to think we are going to get a decent bounce before we head back down to the 1.40 range. I took the big dump today as fortuitous opportunity to close the last 1/2 of my previous trade near breakeven.

Here is what I think is going to happen:

http://i46.tinypic.com/2hqh26e.gif

I think we are headed to the blue rectangle to form PA off of the turquoise channel. This number (if it continues to be guided by the green trendline) should be right around 1.49-1.50. This would also correspond with very nice daily S/R (and psych S/R at a very nice round number of 1.5), which I have highlighted with the skinny blue rectangle.

Personally, I jumped the gun (I believe) on getting back in the Euro and the GBP. I think the Euro is showing us it plans on moving sideways for the time being (maybe we get a "box summer"?) and I was not focusing on the Big Picture when I jumped in the GBP.
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