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Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #1,501
  • Jun 10, 2010 3:16pm Jun 10, 2010 3:16pm
Quoting zoli
Dan,

I would like to address this question.

So which style you find more profittable? As I remember you were able to make some 4-500 pips on average in 2009 ith the trailing SL methode. That is some 10-13% monthly profit if you ricked 2.5% on 100 pips and you did not increase your position. But, I guess, you may have increased your position size the next month adding your profit to your capital.

So, what seems to be more profittable? 2010 or 2009? I would bare in mind that the currenc economic situation gives anexcellent trend. Well, last...
Hi Zol,

Both methods are similarly profitable on their own however due to the fact that I am adding to my winners and holding them as the trends develop my daily trading method becomes much more profitable over the long term.

So far this year most of the long term trends that started in January are still going so for example my current E/U positions are up over 10,000 pips at the moment - that's over 100% return based on my current MM. That is the most extreme case, AUD/USD returns are only 10% (my lowest) whilst some other pairs are up between 20% and 70%.

At the end of June I will post my six month results in my journal and this will become much clearer.

It is the power of holding onto a long trend that has made this year (so far) very profitable for me. However, if the trends weren’t as strong as they have been (in particular the decline of the Euro) then I wouldn't have made so much.

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,502
  • Jun 10, 2010 3:19pm Jun 10, 2010 3:19pm
Quoting coolshades
hmm, but ah from where? 2400?

yes, quite a good run against $ , though nothing fundamentally seems to have changed. my UCAD is surviving, but how long is anyone's guess.
It will depend on what happens at 1.2500 - if I get stopped out at 1.2350 I will assume it is because we are heading up there - if we do and price gets convincingly rejected I will re-enter short at 1.2350.

Hope that makes sense!
  • #1,503
  • Jun 10, 2010 3:21pm Jun 10, 2010 3:21pm
Quoting coolshades
is that a rigid previous swing hi/lo or 250 stops OR previous hi/low, whichever is lower?
It's discretionary lol!

My current E/U swing is 1.1875 - 1.2325 so my 250 pip stop puts me slightly beyond that high.
  • #1,504
  • Jun 10, 2010 3:26pm Jun 10, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting Fx_Genius
Dr. Doom to doomed EU ship: Sink euro, cut rates
Thanks!
  • #1,505
  • Jun 10, 2010 3:30pm Jun 10, 2010 3:30pm
commander, its not just rates that need to be cut. the little buggers need to cut taxes.

but then that would also mean adieu to a lot of 'free' that our fat populace is used to.

are you back on the euraud and eurcad freight train?

Quoting DanUK
Thanks!
  • #1,506
  • Jun 10, 2010 3:33pm Jun 10, 2010 3:33pm
Quoting coolshades
commander, its not just rates that need to be cut. the little buggers need to cut taxes.

but then that would also mean adieu to a lot of 'free' that our fat populace is used to.
Indeed you are right! If they don't get to grips with the reality of it they will be in for a very rude awakening soon!

One quote that I particularly liked from that article:

"The no-nonsense idea that economies first need to grow before you can again fill the coffers of governments (tax receipts magically increase when there's growth) somehow seems to escape all of them."

So true!!


(For reference purposes... quoted from: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dr-doom-to-doomed-eu-ship-sink-euro-cut-rates-2010-06-10?siteid=rss&utm_source=tf)
  • #1,507
  • Jun 10, 2010 3:45pm Jun 10, 2010 3:45pm
Ok this hurts!

I have moved my sl by 100 pips up on all my trades, not something I do often
and also not advisable, I am using 5% of my account for the first time.
I wish everyone luck and hope they will turn round soon a go soouth.
CP.
  • #1,508
  • Jun 10, 2010 3:48pm Jun 10, 2010 3:48pm
Quoting crazzypip
Ok this hurts!

I have moved my sl by 100 pips up on all my trades
Why???
  • #1,509
  • Jun 10, 2010 4:53pm Jun 10, 2010 4:53pm
Hi Dan,
My A/U trades taken at around 0.8300 are very close to sl.
G/U 120 down so far I will now manage the stops.
Thats about 520 pips.
Oh dear fear sets in.

Your feedback is welcome.
Thanks CP
  • #1,510
  • Jun 10, 2010 5:48pm Jun 10, 2010 5:48pm
Quoting crazzypip
Hi Dan,
My A/U trades taken at around 0.8300 are very close to sl.
G/U 120 down so far I will now manage the stops.
Thats about 520 pips.
Oh dear fear sets in.

Your feedback is welcome.
Thanks CP
Wouldn't recommend doing this often. I would recommend sticking firmly to stops in future. I fell into a similar trap before. Don't throw good money after bad. Should take the loss and AH or look to get in elsewhere later. Lot of pips to loose if your stops now get hit. This is just my point of view though. I trade very conservatively with a money management system with a high risk percentage so my trading certainly does not allow me to do this.
  • #1,511
  • Jun 10, 2010 5:57pm Jun 10, 2010 5:57pm
Quoting crazzypip
Hi Dan,
Quoting crazzypip
My A/U trades taken at around 0.8300 are very close to sl.
G/U 120 down so far I will now manage the stops.
Thats about 520 pips.
Oh dear fear sets in.

Your feedback is welcome.
Thanks CP


I understand the fear element and that is when we start messing with our trades hoping to give them a little more room and maybe they will turn around.

If I were in your position I would think that my best advice would be to stick to your rules. If your rules say you use a 100 pip stop or a 200 pip stop or whatever it may be then stick with it.

If you get stopped out... well it happens - you just need to analyse why that happened and then decide whether or not to get back into the trade.

If you decide that your analysis was flawed and you shouldn't have entered the trade then you take a step back and analyse where you should be taking the trade. If you decide that you were right but an unforeseen circumstance caused the market to move further against you than you anticipated then maybe you would think about setting an anti-hedge order to get you back in.

I personally believe consistency in trading, which is bought about by following rules, was a very important aspect in making me profitable.

I hope that helps.

Regards,

Dan

PS @Coolshades - just been watching Question Time - it's quite astounding to see so many idiots who still believe that propping up the state with mountains of debt is the way forward. If it didn't make me laugh I think it would make me cry!!!
  • #1,512
  • Jun 10, 2010 6:26pm Jun 10, 2010 6:26pm
Thanks Dan and Jcalow,

Sound advice as usual, I will take note and next time learn from my mistakes.
The AH is the way to go I think.

CP
  • #1,513
  • Jun 10, 2010 8:59pm Jun 10, 2010 8:59pm
Anyone here short EU at 2100 with 250 pips SL ?
  • #1,514
  • Jun 10, 2010 9:36pm Jun 10, 2010 9:36pm
Hi all

Just a quick thanks to those who contribute in this thread, I try to read posts from this thread as often as I can, and learn much from people's successes and failures.

I often don't have a lot to contribute, as I am still learning and don't feel I have anything new to offer.

I can share however that my SL was hit on the A/U trade a few days ago and now have an AH order pending.

Good luck to all.

Cheers
Ezzy
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #1,515
  • Jun 11, 2010 12:07am Jun 11, 2010 12:07am
Quoting crazzypip
Hi Dan,
My A/U trades taken at around 0.8300 are very close to sl.
G/U 120 down so far I will now manage the stops.
Thats about 520 pips.
Oh dear fear sets in.

Your feedback is welcome.
Thanks CP
I second the guys. And also, provided you stick to your rules, be happy to loose trade.
Yes, you read well. You may be not so far away when compering trading to roulett. Exept in trading you shcould be having the edge not the house.

In order to make 1000 you mey need to loose 500 and also win 1500 so you have your profit. If the edge is little, you may need to loose 2000 and win 3000 to book 1000.

A super active good scalper (before he gets to nerv melt down becouse of his mehtod) looses 100000 than wins 110000; so he books 10000.

So if the method is slolid, after every loosing trade there may be the next winner to come.
Sorry for your loss though. Listen to Dan. Stick to the rules. I admit I would love to stick to them too if they were already solid (mine)
Kind Regards zol
  • #1,516
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:42am Jun 11, 2010 2:42am
Quoting luqmanz
Anyone here short EU at 2100 with 250 pips SL ?
Me!!

I have also sold A/U @ 0.8500 this morning.

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,517
  • Jun 11, 2010 2:50am Jun 11, 2010 2:50am
the au sell was a discretionary enter based on the level rather than on any pa right?

Quoting DanUK
Me!!

I have also sold A/U @ 0.8500 this morning.

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,518
  • Jun 11, 2010 3:04am Jun 11, 2010 3:04am
Quoting coolshades
the au sell was a discretionary enter based on the level rather than on any pa right?
You got it!
  • #1,519
  • Jun 11, 2010 3:32am Jun 11, 2010 3:32am
Quoting DanUK
Me!!

I have also sold A/U @ 0.8500 this morning.

Regards,

Dan

Hi Dan. Newbie here

Your reasoning for shorting EUR/USD, is it because it is close to the 50% fib of roughly 1.2145 as well as being almost on top of round number 1.2500?

I am trying to learn your methodolgy and hope you don't mind me bouncing some questions off you
  • #1,520
  • Jun 11, 2010 3:39am Jun 11, 2010 3:39am
Quoting CharlesSA
Hi Dan. Newbie here

Your reasoning for shorting EUR/USD, is it because it is close to the 50% fib of roughly 1.2145 as well as being almost on top of round number 1.2500?

I am trying to learn your methodolgy and hope you don't mind me bouncing some questions off you
Hi,

That's ok - I'm happy to help where I can!

The background is that I have shorts open all the way back to 1.4500 including one recently from 1.2500 - so my most recent trade from 1.2100 is based with that in mind.

I measure two possible 50% retracements - one lands on 1.2100 and one at 1.2150 - these both coincide with an area of support/resistance that I would like to think will hold.

Hope that helps!

Regards,

Dan
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