Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 817 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #16,321
  • Jun 10, 2010 6:13am Jun 10, 2010 6:13am
Quoting Haymaker
I think UJ is being manipulated. Most of the time the yen doesn't follow any rule pertaining to the movements of GU and EU. Why is that so? I think the japs traded the UJ heavily, sometimes they synchro but only temporarily. Most of the time, the yen has a mind of its own. This brings me to the point that I haven't found any indicator to trade the yen properly. Any ideas?
You don't have to always think of the yen being manipulated. There are many reasons for yen to be trending in a direction. Stock market, nikkei etc...

As for indicator to trade the yen, crosses like e/j and g/j works for me.
  • #16,322
  • Jun 10, 2010 6:18am Jun 10, 2010 6:18am
Quoting jest1081
Sold l3 625
Sold l2 632
  • #16,323
  • Jun 10, 2010 6:22am Jun 10, 2010 6:22am
Happy trading day everyone. I have been in no trades so far today since London. There are several more FA before NY open to consider and am trying to avoid any traps. However, everything is set up for trades and this may be a good day...time will tell.

Been reading the thread and there is good conversation today. Hope you are all trading well. Let's see, ECB is next...
  • #16,324
  • Jun 10, 2010 6:22am Jun 10, 2010 6:22am
Quoting jest1081
Sold l2 632
Jest's making pips in the turn
  • #16,325
  • Jun 10, 2010 6:26am Jun 10, 2010 6:26am
For those interested a follow up post #2742:

"Quote:
Originally Posted by Green_David
Thanks for your reply.

For discussion only. The fibo skew is nice, since if the price have fibo retracement, the net book will break even. However, for me, I changed into an easier way, say, the base is 2, first, tester/scout 1, if I think my trade direction is right, I will add 3, and later at the end of wave 2 ideally, add another 2. Since if I add at the end of wave 4, I increased the risk, since wave 5 is not stable.

Also, for discussion only, the general opinion on add-on is the pyramid style, i.e. as the more prices go on in favor of the positions, the less positions added. This is of course in contrast to your skew way. I am also not clear about this.

Thanks. Best regards to you also. Xie xie.

David

Hi Green_David,

The skew for a ride must be as you mentioned a pyramid, after attack. Otherwise you would be drawing your cost average too close to market to manage possible retracements.It is the inward skew that I mentioned. Therefore we are the same.You can achieve this by moving left or right on the fibo table.

The sequence of outward skew is for rescue, and as I had mentioned is minimum of a fibo expansion, but of course one can front end weight it or backend weight it or hump weight it as well flat or stepped ladder to flat weighted.
Be aware that each methodology has its own characteristics of risk snowball effect and impact on P&L. This is very important to be suited to comfortable financial capacity and adapted to the accuracy factor ( market read) of the trader.
What you described is a hump front weighted sequense.
Another point I like to clearify is that the base mentioned is the "scout".

Bu Xie.

regards"

I remember reading fti saying “front end weight” means you are confident of your call, “backend weight” not so confident, “hump weight” and “flat weight” are self-explanatory, not sure what is “flat or stepped ladder”. Fibo skew is phi skew, sometimes called the growth spiral, then there is pi skew which breaks the growth spiral

Rgs
Baifu
  • #16,326
  • Jun 10, 2010 6:28am Jun 10, 2010 6:28am
Quoting auxesis
Jest's making pips in the turn
Hehe just playing the reversal. Not agrassive and fearing the bear paws swinging back into limbo.

Edit flat now
  • #16,327
  • Jun 10, 2010 7:08am Jun 10, 2010 7:08am
Sorry folks for the bombardment of paste due to my posting as I re-read the thread, have to post this one to round up. Post #2746:

David,

It just mean that, if you weighted it front , you are very confident on your initial form read. If you weighted it on the back end you are no so confident of your dance but would be aggressive in rescuing your book if needed be.

As you mentioned you like the hump. Which means that you are very aggressive, and have a strong option to abandon the scout if things didin't work out so well, but would like to press when he is well positioned. And that you are not too concerned to press on trend runs, and like to conservatively position when on runs.

Basically the terminology and strategy is a derivation of yield curve shapes. ie managing money market expectancies.

If you had not noticed, if you master my presentation, you would find that you are well position to tackle congestions ( which is 70% of market sequenses) as well as trends, although the basis of analysis is on trends. The nimbleness it affords youallows you to maneuver from one mode to the other easily provided your ego is not in the driver seat and you are in non predictive mindset. Funny that no one noticed it. Of course the prerequisite is that you have to be re analysing your position and constantly re-mapping yourself against the terrain.

Like I have very strongly stressed all the time,that any analyst , mutating his methodology to be predictive, have flew over the cookoo's nest and had become irrational and unstable in his mind. After a little time they become incoherent to themselves. Most of these have little skill and are heavily dependant on hope of past performance, of which the disclosure statement of past performance, will quickly put them to rest.

Well I guess that many believes that the historical and past performance disclosure statement is supposed to be a joke or was just put to traders for fun. Then the jokes on them.
Remember always , that, the market is alive and multi dimensional in its variables which will always affect its behaviour, thereby to tame it , you would need to use a very superior tool , that can adapt to it's millions of colouration, our mind.

regards
  • #16,328
  • Jun 10, 2010 8:17am Jun 10, 2010 8:17am
Back to the sidelines waiting for an entry on the euro crosses or the gbp. Just exited a $/CAD short after hitting my mental limit. Of course, it is moving farther south but I banked some nice profits (what were those comments from yesterday about pigs?). Hope you are all trading well.
  • #16,329
  • Jun 10, 2010 8:39am Jun 10, 2010 8:39am
same here, going to be late week action again. about those pigs...haha
  • #16,330
  • Jun 10, 2010 8:53am Jun 10, 2010 8:53am
Yea, I think the sentiment on the euro has swung around to it being oversold, and I have been saying that 1.2205 needs to be squared up, so I think the north move may have some legs to it. Waiting for a pullback before entry.

Edit: the gbp has just arrived at 1.4655'ish so now we'll see what happens with it.
  • #16,331
  • Jun 10, 2010 9:01am Jun 10, 2010 9:01am
careful of where stops are piling up...don't forget the world cup effect too...any soccer fans here ?
  • #16,332
  • Jun 10, 2010 9:46am Jun 10, 2010 9:46am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
careful of where stops are piling up...don't forget the world cup effect too...any soccer fans here ?
I'm a basketball fan, but I keep an eye on The Champions League and World Cups

GEfx, great work there, your broker must hate you
I'm looking to trade a retracement of the up move of EUR/USD but the bulls are still there.

Good trading to all
  • #16,333
  • Jun 10, 2010 11:07am Jun 10, 2010 11:07am
Finally got some time to look at the charts and oh my, the EUR and GBP had shown some nice long legs today. I guess it's the summer in Europe thing...

Hey Mark I'm looking forward to the world cup too! My country did not qualify so I will be supporting the Brits (hardcore Man U fan). You plan to visit on site or simply diversify charts with TV?

Cheers
  • #16,334
  • Jun 10, 2010 11:25am Jun 10, 2010 11:25am
will be watching tv....lol its too far away, and yah, markets and soccer will both get my attention lol....i think i will trade small lots...

ps be careful on lusan's dow sauce
  • #16,335
  • Edited 11:57am Jun 10, 2010 11:40am | Edited 11:57am
Same plan over here - charts + TV, LOL

I won't be trading today, just watching. Hype is in the air and risk is ON today - buy risky assets, sell safe heavens (dollars). Let's see what happen in NY afternoon when the terminators take control

P.S. on the low TFs gold is forming a nice Head and shoulders thingy. I don't know about you but over here we have a shampoo with that name so each time I see this pattern it makes me laugh
  • #16,336
  • Jun 10, 2010 12:00pm Jun 10, 2010 12:00pm
LOL we have head and shoulders here, the makers are probably chartist. Talking about gold, if the bubble do burst...standby to make a truckload of money.

I am afraid bud, that england is going to disappoint again, would be more exciting watching N Korea.
  • #16,337
  • Jun 10, 2010 12:18pm Jun 10, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
LOL we have head and shoulders here, the makers are probably chartist. Talking about gold, if the bubble do burst...standby to make a truckload of money.

I am afraid bud, that england is going to disappoint again, would be more exciting watching N Korea.


One of the reasons I like the English national team - full of stars, rarely makes it past the quarter finals... much like Real Madrid, with the only difference that I hate Real, LOL

N Korea - now that's gonna be a massacre... Watch out for a full blown war with the South once they are back from S Africa
  • #16,338
  • Jun 10, 2010 12:33pm Jun 10, 2010 12:33pm
lol...you are so right !!
  • #16,339
  • Jun 10, 2010 12:36pm Jun 10, 2010 12:36pm
You could be right...........the more you these indicators, the more confuse you get. No strategy is better than your own i think.....
  • #16,340
  • Jun 10, 2010 3:39pm Jun 10, 2010 3:39pm
Quoting dongsky
hi zoran,

since you mention about 3 kingdom, i have a question for you, since USD the neutral against EUR/GBP/JPY, why most of the time these 3 pairs are in syncrony... where supposedly USD/JPY must be go against the 2 pairs?

like eu & gu should be most of the time in sync, while UJ on the otherhand must move the other way?

thanks and regards,
dongsky
OK, now you have me thinking a bit. Most people here it seems concentrate on one pair but if we take the USD as our focus, we can be either long or short USD (which I believe is fti's normal position).

So basically, if we are long USD then we expect cable and eur to go down and yen to go up. If we are short USD then we expect cable and eur to go up and yen to go down.

Now when we take a position, say long USD, we can short EUR/USD. As a hedge we can also short cable GBP/USD and long yen USD/JPY. In this way we are hedged but we are now managing three different currencies. This I believe is the spiral within spiral and why fti regards it as a can of worms. Some people have enough difficulties managing one pair but to manage three with planning possible rescues would be overload for the inexperienced.

I remember fti's first live trade here on this forum and it was with both cable and EUR. I am now fairly certain this is the spiral within spiral he is talking about. It all fits together nicely - spiral within spiral (hedging) and DOW theory. I don't remember fti writing much about yen (although he did) so I would say the spiral within spiral is on cable and eur. Some AOW concepts are beginning to make sense now.
21 traders viewing now