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Amyc Trade Journal

  • #521
  • Jun 9, 2010 8:40pm Jun 9, 2010 8:40pm
AU looks bullish after that data release, a bearish market would not have found support at 8256. Unless the dow tanks on Thursday which I am not discounting then au should do another 140 pips up.
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  • #522
  • Jun 9, 2010 11:03pm Jun 9, 2010 11:03pm
I am trying out a short here on AU at 8390, if it goes above 8400 then i will take the loss and wait for 85.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 13 KB
  • #523
  • Jun 9, 2010 11:21pm Jun 9, 2010 11:21pm
Quoting amyc
I am trying out a short here on AU at 8390, if it goes above 8400 then i will take the loss and wait for 85.
hi amy im tempted to do that too but it looks a bit risky to me
i have next potential R at around 8430 Weekly R1 and 8440 Daily R2, also the upper TL for this rally, that matches your another 40 pip bar on top of 8390

i might wait for that for a better shorting position, if it ever comes
we shall watch how the PA goes
  • #524
  • Jun 9, 2010 11:31pm Jun 9, 2010 11:31pm
Hi OvT

I agree it does look a bit risky but the stop is tight so it doesn't matter if it gets hit. I probably won't short another 40 pips up bc if I am trying to pick a top I need a pink resistance at the top of the bar and I won't get another one of those for another 80 pips.
  • #525
  • Jun 10, 2010 12:04am Jun 10, 2010 12:04am
Possible short on eu at 1.2069. I'm going to take it with a 15 pip stop. If it moves past here then it will probably reach 1.2186
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Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 15 KB
  • #526
  • Jun 10, 2010 12:36am Jun 10, 2010 12:36am
I'm raising the stop on au shorts, if it goes past 8411 I will get out.
  • #527
  • Jun 10, 2010 2:21am Jun 10, 2010 2:21am
Quoting amyc
I'm raising the stop on au shorts, if it goes past 8411 I will get out.
i took a small short from here .8384, i think the R ~.839 will hold for now, will watch daily R1 .836 to decide further movement
  • #528
  • Jun 10, 2010 2:42am Jun 10, 2010 2:42am
Quoting OvT
i took a small short from here .8384, i think the R ~.839 will hold for now, will watch daily R1 .836 to decide further movement
It might be slow going until uk interest rate announcement in a few hours.
  • #529
  • Jun 10, 2010 5:15am Jun 10, 2010 5:15am
Quoting amyc
It might be slow going until uk interest rate announcement in a few hours.
marc was right, the R1 acted as a trampoline this time
and it hit Weekly R1 .8430, and the upper TL, the retrace is not very convincing, showing signs of further upside perhaps

however yea, too many news next few hours to do anything
did you cut your short?
  • #530
  • Jun 10, 2010 5:25am Jun 10, 2010 5:25am
Quoting OvT
marc was right, the R1 acted as a trampoline this time
and it hit Weekly R1 .8430, and the upper TL, the retrace is not very convincing, showing signs of further upside perhaps

however yea, too many news next few hours to do anything
did you cut your short?
I cut my short at 8410, I see more upside as long as it stays above 8398. I think next week maybe better for longer term shorts.
  • #531
  • Jun 10, 2010 8:37pm Jun 10, 2010 8:37pm
EU looks like it will continue its move up today. I didn't take the short yesterday as price moved down 40 pips into 1.2018 before it hit my target. That bottom matched with the midpoint on the right hand chart, this would have been a nice place to take longs but I wasn't paying attention.

For Friday I am interested in taking longs if price pulls back 80 pips, it may come back as far as the midpoint again at 1.2047. Target is the green highs at 1.2183 but I think there is a good chance that they will break and it continues up early next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 15 KB
  • #532
  • Jun 10, 2010 8:40pm Jun 10, 2010 8:40pm
AU should continue up as well, I see another 140 pips up on this pair before it turns. I can't see a good long setup on this pair for today though. 8355-8385 would be good but I don't know if it can make it back that far.
  • #533
  • Jun 10, 2010 9:06pm Jun 10, 2010 9:06pm
Quoting amyc
AU should continue up as well, I see another 140 pips up on this pair before it turns. I can't see a good long setup on this pair for today though. 8355-8385 would be good but I don't know if it can make it back that far.
I see now why we had conflicting ideas on A/U. We are analyzing different TF's! My bad. I'm so geared towards the short-term and going after the quick 5, 10, 25 pips that I don't even lift my head up to see the 100+ moves.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #534
  • Jun 10, 2010 9:12pm Jun 10, 2010 9:12pm
Quoting MarcVUM
I see now why we had conflicting ideas on A/U. We are analyzing different TF's! My bad. I'm so geared towards the short-term and going after the quick 5, 10, 25 pips that I don't even lift my head up to see the 100+ moves.
I see, and I never look at anything below a 4hr chart. These days i'm so fixated on the bigger picture that I consider a 40 pip opportunity not worth trading.
  • #535
  • Jun 10, 2010 9:50pm Jun 10, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting amyc
I see, and I never look at anything below a 4hr chart. These days i'm so fixated on the bigger picture that I consider a 40 pip opportunity not worth trading.
For some reason I think that this is advantageous for the both of us. There may be a time when either one of us is saved by the other when a short or long entry is about to be made. From now on I won't forget your TF's!

That short entry I made earlier today at 8507 would be 57+ pips in the green right now had I not moved my S/L to B/E +5. Fortunately I got back in at 8485 and took 25 for the bag. Had I seen you post that you were going to take a long I would have stopped you right away know that a decent drop was about to take place. You made me a boat load of pips at the beginning of May and I need to return the favor any which way I can!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #536
  • Jun 10, 2010 10:40pm Jun 10, 2010 10:40pm
Quoting MarcVUM
For some reason I think that this is advantageous for the both of us. There may be a time when either one of us is saved by the other when a short or long entry is about to be made. From now on I won't forget your TF's!

That short entry I made earlier today at 8507 would be 57+ pips in the green right now had I not moved my S/L to B/E +5. Fortunately I got back in at 8485 and took 25 for the bag. Had I seen you post that you were going to take a long I would have stopped you right away know that a decent drop was about to take place. You made...
I think so too. Do you think that was the low of the retrace? My au charts don't show a lot of room for retrace. But the dollar index has some more room to go up yet so au and eu could come back some more.
  • #537
  • Jun 10, 2010 10:55pm Jun 10, 2010 10:55pm
Quoting amyc
I think so too. Do you think that was the low of the retrace? My au charts don't show a lot of room for retrace. But the dollar index has some more room to go up yet so au and eu could come back some more.
Going into the trade earlier I was on the same page as Shahab targeting 8410. However, I exited the trade at 8450 because PA is resisting the fall and had hit a major MA on my H1. It is still under an important MA on my M15 but I think it is just going to range between 85 and 8450 for a little while. I won't trade it again unless it breaks one way or the other. If it goes south (which is the more likely situation) I will sell and target 8410 and then buy it for a quick 10 - 20 pips around the 23.6% Fib / 150ema on M15 (8410ish area). If it breaks north I will follow it to the 200sma on H4 (86 - 8675).
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #538
  • Jun 10, 2010 10:58pm Jun 10, 2010 10:58pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Going into the trade earlier I was on the same page as Shahab targeting 8410. However, I exited the trade at 8450 because PA is resisting the fall and had hit a major MA on my H1. It is still under an important MA on my M15 but I think it is just going to range between 85 and 8450 for a little while. I won't trade it again unless it breaks one way or the other. If it goes south (which is the more likely situation) I will sell and target 8410 and then buy it for a quick 10 - 20 pips around the 23.6% Fib / 150ema on M15 (8410ish area). If it breaks...
I am thinking of buying the euro, that should bring them down.
  • #539
  • Jun 12, 2010 6:16am Jun 12, 2010 6:16am
AU heading up this week to at least 8577. I will hold my longs until here. I think a move back down to 7995 will start this week but I can see 8615-18 first so I will be cautious in taking shorts. Also this is more than likely not going to match up with a bottom in the dollar index so another reason for caution.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 11 KB
  • #540
  • Jun 12, 2010 6:20am Jun 12, 2010 6:20am
Dollar index is moving to the blue lows on the right hand chart. The left hand chart shows an ideal short on Friday which will push down for 2 or 3 0.8 point bars until it reaches those lows.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dx.GIF Size: 18 KB
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