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Silent Service Method

  • #9,061
  • Jun 9, 2010 2:16pm Jun 9, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting Low
I don't think I'm qualified...but here goes. As far as pins go, even a pin that's broken the way it should (bullish pin broken to the upside) can still turn around. It's just part of the uncertainty, I used limit orders above/below pins a few times and gotten taken in just as it turns the other way, so nothing is sacred.

As far as the daily picture goes, we are clearly in a downtrend, with the possibility of some sideways action. At the current lowest low we see a daily pin, some upside, a further break south (violating the bottom of that bear-flag,...
Good answer. Or as I would say....."Yeah, what he said."

  • #9,062
  • Jun 9, 2010 2:37pm Jun 9, 2010 2:37pm
Quoting clockwork71
I like this chart, push it down to .60 so I can take profits, k? lol

we break the turquoise trendline on this chart and I will bet we get (aka, I will be entering trades to) .60.

http://i47.tinypic.com/2r7txk9.gif
  • #9,063
  • Jun 9, 2010 2:52pm Jun 9, 2010 2:52pm
Alright gents, I think we have something interesting forming on the CJ:

Daily first:

http://i47.tinypic.com/2q1cffc.gif

The chart is a bit messy - far messier than I like to keep them. But let me tell you what I see going on. First, we have an obvious pinbar forming on the daily. That PB is off of the 200 SMA (yellow line), touched a short term trendline (turquoise line), and is bouncing off the bottom of a previous longterm Support trendline (red trendline).

The Red trendline's significance is more obvious in the weekly:

http://i50.tinypic.com/20prk11.gif

What I think is happening here is that the previous support trendline is becoming resistance. This would be a daily pin off of weekly resistance.

Now the few issues that I am having trouble reconciling:

1) We run into a little noise with short term trendlines at the break of the pin (about 100 pips away).

2) The long term trend is tough to determine. We have about a year long up trend, but we are down over the last 3 years.
  • #9,064
  • Jun 9, 2010 3:21pm Jun 9, 2010 3:21pm
Quoting Low
I don't think I'm qualified...

I hope I answered your questions.
Thanks for taking the time Low, much appreciated. I have no immediate plans to try and pick a bottom in this market but just wanted some clarity on the logic.

From what I understand, the price action is only a part of the bigger picture and that the lack of certainty in the other key aspects you weigh up means it is not what you would see as a no-brainer trade.

Am I close
  • #9,065
  • Jun 9, 2010 4:13pm Jun 9, 2010 4:13pm
Screw you RBNZ... gotta love 70 pt 1 minute spikes...
  • #9,066
  • Jun 9, 2010 6:27pm Jun 9, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting TraderDavo
Alright gents, I think we have something interesting forming on the CJ:

Daily first:

http://i47.tinypic.com/2q1cffc.gif

The chart is a bit messy - far messier than I like to keep them....
My advice is to simply wait until one of those lines is broken, and decisively. Until then - it's a mess.
  • #9,067
  • Jun 9, 2010 6:30pm Jun 9, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting TraderDavo
Screw you RBNZ... gotta love 70 pt 1 minute spikes...
They are even talking about future hikes. But having said that - it still looks kinda weak in my opinion. We have already given about half back in a couple of hours.....
  • #9,068
  • Jun 9, 2010 9:46pm Jun 9, 2010 9:46pm
Hi CW,

First off, thanks for starting this thread and keeping up with it. Also thanks to Whitegoodman, Low, MP77, Jharvey and all the others that have contributed. Reading here has been hugely informative.

I've been reading Pring on Price Patterns and noticed that he recommends logarithmic scaling on the price axis. Most of the charts posted here are arithmetic scaling.

I'm curious as to why? I would suspect that with the forex market, the scaling is not as important because we don't have a 'zero' price like stocks do. But that is only my initial suspicion and would appreciate comments from the more experienced forex trades.

All the best.
  • #9,069
  • Jun 9, 2010 10:53pm Jun 9, 2010 10:53pm
Quoting Redspider
Hi CW,

First off, thanks for starting this thread and keeping up with it....
For my money, it really only matters on futures and stock charts. But to be honest, it's really a matter of perception more than anything else. He talks about how it makes a 10% move look like 10%, no matter the price. A perfect example at the moment would be Citi.....

I wouldn't worry to much about it to be honest.

BTW - Welcome!
  • #9,070
  • Jun 9, 2010 11:21pm Jun 9, 2010 11:21pm
Took a look at a few markets tonight. Here was the results:

http://thetraderguy.com/BearMarket/
  • #9,071
  • Jun 10, 2010 2:18am Jun 10, 2010 2:18am
"Full blown capitulation from the Goldman FX (strategic not tactical) team: the firm goes from a $1.35 target on EURUSD to $1.15. Score one more golden star for Goldman-Client relations. On the other hand, Thomas Stolper is officially advising clients to sell their euros to Goldman. There is no clearer signal to buy the beaten down currency." - zerohedge
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.png Size: 82 KB
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #9,072
  • Jun 10, 2010 2:52am Jun 10, 2010 2:52am
This research paper was made public on zerohedge.com.

Thought it may be of interest. I would not like to come across a bear of this size in the woods, I'm 6'4" and am sure it would treat me like a fluffy white rabbit.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Go to cash - market view report.pdf   320 KB | 398 downloads
  • #9,073
  • Jun 10, 2010 3:02am Jun 10, 2010 3:02am
Quoting whitegoodman
"Full blown capitulation from the Goldman FX (strategic not tactical) team: the firm goes from a $1.35 target on EURUSD to $1.15. Score one more golden star for Goldman-Client relations. On the other hand, Thomas Stolper is officially advising clients to sell their euros to Goldman. There is no clearer signal to buy the beaten down currency." - zerohedge
Hi White,

If there is a solid retrace, which does grow possible as more load up on the short side. I mean if there are no buyers the sellers will have to raise their prices to move what they have borrowed right?............

does the 38.2% fib retrace of the recent 1.50 something high from the most recent low look like a more realistic price target? That would leave it around the 1.29-1.31 area. I mean once momentum takes up, IF it does occur it could always continue on however as I look back I see the real heavy shorts having come in from around the 1.30 area and by association think that a massive short covering rally would end where the shorts started right?

With sentiment where it is at the moment I can't understand how it could rebound that far unless the there is a mass forgiving of international debt.

Are your targets just based on the long term S/R levels?

My questions are not critical of your view because I tend to share that it is becoming increasingly likely however I am trying to understand your logic as I am still learning on a very steep curve in here
  • #9,074
  • Jun 10, 2010 7:33am Jun 10, 2010 7:33am
My look at EUR monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurmonth.png Size: 40 KB
  • #9,075
  • Jun 10, 2010 7:45am Jun 10, 2010 7:45am
Quoting whitegoodman
"Full blown capitulation from the Goldman FX (strategic not tactical) team: the firm goes from a $1.35 target on EURUSD to $1.15. Score one more golden star for Goldman-Client relations. On the other hand, Thomas Stolper is officially advising clients to sell their euros to Goldman. There is no clearer signal to buy the beaten down currency." - zerohedge

Doesn't this contradict what you are saying? Same guy:

"Today's little snapback in the EURUSD may be more of a kneejerk reaction to Goldman's updated PT on the EURUSD from 1.35 to 1.15 (the whole market now knows to fade every Goldman call from initiation), than are a response to fundamentals. These, unfortunately, continue to deteriorate. ECB deposit facility usage has hit a fresh new all time record of €369 billion, an increase of €4.5 billion overnight. The scramble to put away euros continues."

My understanding is that the banks, by using the ECB are perging themselves of euros. Is that correct?
  • #9,076
  • Jun 10, 2010 10:06am Jun 10, 2010 10:06am
Quoting TraderDavo
Doesn't this contradict what you are saying?...
No sure how that works in the ECB but I am not sure they can supply alternative currencies, just some interest on the Euros parked?
  • #9,077
  • Jun 10, 2010 10:29am Jun 10, 2010 10:29am
I know zerohedge.com comes out with some crazy stuff sometimes, but he just pointed out some SERIOUSLY BS stuff going on right now.

Yesterday, as pointed out, GS downgraded the Euro. The guy at zerohedge said this morning before 9:00 est GS purchased no less than 1000 Big SP contracts. If my math is right, that is about 250K a point...

He predicted yesterday that GS was up to something and sure enough, there is a HUGE volume spike in pit trading on the big SP, which then drives the Euro up on a market surge (as they are relatively connected, it seems, here lately).

Are they covering some shorts? trying to sell back in at a slightly higher price? All I know is that if his sources are correct, GS may have just fooled us all in to giving them somewhere in the $10MM on the SP contracts in about 10 minutes and God knows how many 100s of MM on the subsequent Euro spike.
  • #9,078
  • Jun 10, 2010 11:55am Jun 10, 2010 11:55am
Quoting TraderDavo
I know zerohedge.com comes out with some crazy stuff sometimes, but he just pointed out some SERIOUSLY BS stuff going on right now....
They are that crooked it's ridiculous. I have two mates working there in London (one's not the Fabulous Fab before you ask - funniest self nicknaming ever) and they both admit to being shifty. In fact I wouldn't trust them with their money
  • #9,079
  • Jun 10, 2010 12:06pm Jun 10, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting TraderDavo
Doesn't this contradict what you are saying?...

WG lives in a different world than us. He is trading at a firm and as such, lives in the shorter-term markets. However, there is some merit to what he is saying in the sense that people are finally giving up on the Euro. Of course, I am a little more extreme: I think we will eventually be trading Marks, Guilders, and Francs.

As a side note, nobody looks better than White Goodman in a Mr. Incredible suit.
  • #9,080
  • Jun 10, 2010 12:08pm Jun 10, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting TraderDavo
I know zerohedge.com comes out with some crazy stuff sometimes, but he just pointed out some SERIOUSLY BS stuff going on right now....
One problem: They also are going to have to unload those. If this thing unravels at the end of the day, (which it has been doing lately.) they are going to give a lot back. As they should. Bastards.

Sorry, my opinion slipped in there.

As a side note, I am watching the market slowly drift down again. We will see, it's only 1 pm. I am buying more SPY puts.
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