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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #1,741
  • Edited 5:12am Jun 5, 2010 4:57am | Edited 5:12am
The fifth wave of the six month old Euro down-trend exhibits the rare pattern of a fifth-wave-diagonal-triangle. The theory book tells us that such patterns have unusually strong corrections following completion of the fifth wave.

Strictly speaking, the wave 4 reaching above wave 1 would either invalidate the wave count or signify bear exhaustion.

A point worth noticing is that the market closed at the 161.8% extension of the XA range from two posts ago, here denoted AB.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro downtrend 5 june.jpg Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euro extension 5 june.jpg Size: 77 KB
  • #1,742
  • Jun 9, 2010 3:26am Jun 9, 2010 3:26am
a nice FO / LO session .....€s move was almost identical.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jne 9 cable 5m lo plus55m.gif Size: 25 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,743
  • Jun 9, 2010 3:42am Jun 9, 2010 3:42am
Quoting Islander
a nice FO / LO session .....€s move was almost identical.....
GM. Indeed, a beautiful session. I traded Aussie and Euro this morning Cleaner charts...
  • #1,744
  • Jun 9, 2010 4:33am Jun 9, 2010 4:33am
At 9.30 things often happen, with or without news. Here's a nice continuation trade from the 61.8% retracement of the session range.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable 0.618 9 june.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #1,745
  • Jun 9, 2010 5:27am Jun 9, 2010 5:27am
Quoting medici
At 9.30 things often happen, with or without news. Here's a nice continuation trade from the 61.8% retracement of the session range.

Agreed.....4435 was also the yellow POC level from market profile and the low was 75 (Lucas -1) minutes from the high http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,746
  • Jun 9, 2010 6:45am Jun 9, 2010 6:45am
Quoting Islander
Agreed.....4435 was also the yellow POC level from market profile and the low was 75 (Lucas -1) minutes from the high http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
And it coincided with 50% of yesterday's last wave up, as well as 76.4% of Monday's range...
  • #1,747
  • Jun 9, 2010 7:01am Jun 9, 2010 7:01am
Quoting medici
At 9.30 things often happen, with or without news. Here's a nice continuation trade from the 61.8% retracement of the session range.
And the target was 161.8%...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable 1.618 9 june.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #1,748
  • Jun 9, 2010 7:09am Jun 9, 2010 7:09am
medici
Very nice observation of Fibo Cluster (3 retracements)

"And it coincided with 50% of yesterday's last wave up, as well as 76.4% of Monday's range...http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...im/winking.gif"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9jun fibo clus.jpg Size: 133 KB
  • #1,749
  • Edited 11:51pm Jun 9, 2010 7:25am | Edited 11:51pm
Quoting david4u
medici
Very nice observation of Fibo Cluster (3 retracements)

"And it coincided with 50% of yesterday's last wave up, as well as 76.4% of Monday's range...http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...im/winking.gif"
Thanks, and thanks for chart. And the point is that it is confluence of fibs in three different time-frames, not clustering a la Carolyn Boroden...
  • #1,750
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:34pm Jun 11, 2010 4:34pm
Today cable displayed a 'line in the sand' pattern as described in this post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=245

As usual, when you see such a pattern in the morning it means money in the bank.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable line in the sand 11 june.jpg Size: 62 KB
  • #1,751
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:48pm Jun 11, 2010 4:48pm
Quoting medici
.. it means money in the bank.
That's the sorta line I wanna hear!!
  • #1,752
  • Edited 5:20pm Jun 11, 2010 4:52pm | Edited 5:20pm
medici
tks for your post
Can you try to explain how did you avoid today Long trade/s in this case ?
How did u filter the Long side ?
I looked at your original chart from 15 Dec ...
What I see is :
1. impulsive wave
2. long consolidation period (line in the sand)
3. continuation in the direction of the impulsive wave
and today I can see the same pattern BUT price did not continue with yesterday's (10 june) original
direction of the impulsive wave "as expected"
Tks
David

Quoting medici
Today cable displayed a 'line in the sand' pattern as described in this post:
As usual, when you see such a pattern in the morning it means money in the bank.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro 15dec.jpg Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 12jun med cont.png Size: 38 KB
  • #1,753
  • Jun 11, 2010 5:13pm Jun 11, 2010 5:13pm
David if you got the time over weekend, and actually anyone else who wants to, check medici's old thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=211103

Will help with the lin in the sand concepts alot, but overall that thread is bloody amazin,,dude really knows how to trade, correction, DAY trade hahah,, harder
  • #1,754
  • Jun 11, 2010 5:16pm Jun 11, 2010 5:16pm
Quoting david4u
medici
tks for your post
Can you try to explain how to avoid , if possible , a Long trade/s in this case ?
How did u filter the Long side ?
Tks
David
No need to avoid a long trade, as long as you know when to take profit. There was one or two to be had for the eager minded.

Filtering the long side was based on:

- It's Friday after a week long bull run, so it's profit taking time ahead of the weekend,

- Price was reaching the highs of last week (see chart),

and breakout upwards and serious profit-taking don't go well together, so the short was a no-brainer.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable double top 11 june.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #1,755
  • Jun 11, 2010 5:23pm Jun 11, 2010 5:23pm
Hi medici
I have edited my post #1752 , before I saw your reply .
Do you mind looking at it again with edited charts
Tks and sorry
David
  • #1,756
  • Jun 11, 2010 5:25pm Jun 11, 2010 5:25pm
While we're at it, here's today's prize winner. Euro-yen is very good at obeying geometric patterns, and there's was an obvious short at 111.35 which would hold for Friday/profit-taking reasons, and a long at 110.30 which would hold for trend continuation reasons.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro-yen pinball 11 june.jpg Size: 90 KB
  • #1,757
  • Jun 11, 2010 5:54pm Jun 11, 2010 5:54pm
Quoting david4u
Hi medici
I have edited my post #1752 , before I saw your reply .
Do you mind looking at it again with edited charts
Tks and sorry
David
Hi David,

not sure I understand your question. Sometimes the market continues, sometimes it reverses.

In the case of the Euro example, the rate was in a serious downtrend (see chart), while cable this week had just emerged out of the gutters to revisit recent highs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro daily 14 dec.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #1,758
  • Jun 12, 2010 5:30am Jun 12, 2010 5:30am
Here's a possible scenario for the Euro Monday, which may or may not be realised.

The up trend should continue and 1.2079 is support turned resistance and now support again. In addition, it's 50% of the last wave up Friday evening. A possible take-off point for the move up.

On the upside, a breakout could target the 161.8% level of Friday's pullback, which coincides with the starting point for the last push down Friday a week ago.

Note also that the Fibonacci levels of the 1.1875-2215 range were in play Friday, and that Friday's low was, to the pip, at the 50% level.

On a break above 1.2150, price should retrace there before continuation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro outlook for 14 june.jpg Size: 85 KB
  • #1,759
  • Jun 12, 2010 6:27am Jun 12, 2010 6:27am
Cool medici, so basically the fib confluence gives an idea for forecasting? Makes sense as they are the most high profile areas for dealers to push to..

May I ask if you trade all day when the opportunity arises or just the Euro open as the thread title suggests? Mainly because lately trend trading seems best towards lunch and afte?

Many thanks
  • #1,760
  • Jun 12, 2010 6:52am Jun 12, 2010 6:52am
Quoting Sim
Cool medici, so basically the fib confluence gives an idea for forecasting? Makes sense as they are the most high profile areas for dealers to push to..

May I ask if you trade all day when the opportunity arises or just the Euro open as the thread title suggests? Mainly because lately trend trading seems best towards lunch and afte?

Many thanks
´
The idea is based on the scenario that the up trend will continue. Then, asking the question about low and high levels for a breakout, the projections are done using S/R and Fibonacci ratios. I hope that answers the questions.

These days I trade all day when the opportunity arises. These are interesting times with lots of opportunities.
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