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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #16,241
  • Jun 8, 2010 10:43pm Jun 8, 2010 10:43pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
I've never even looked at Dow theory, I'll have to take a look. The definition of trend I'm currently using is the easiest to see, I'm looking at the last swing on every time frame, If the last move made was a high, then the trend is an uptrend.

Cheers for the pointers,
Leon
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post3215376
you forget easily buddy. lol!
  • #16,242
  • Jun 8, 2010 10:48pm Jun 8, 2010 10:48pm
Quoting jest1081
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post3215376
you forget easily buddy. lol!
Hey, that was years ago though! But yes, I remember now that you mentioned my participation there a few hours ago.

Where am I?

Living the adventure in my head.
  • #16,243
  • Jun 8, 2010 10:50pm Jun 8, 2010 10:50pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Short- EU- 1.1946- 1 lot


On the 4h and 1h a break of about 1.1980 could be considered the beginning of an uptrend.
myself, if I keep in mind the 3 thingy considering the last 3 days 2016 (highs) and 1883 (lows) are areas of extra interest but believe me my eyes will be open at that 1980-84 area you mentioned.
  • #16,244
  • Jun 8, 2010 10:50pm Jun 8, 2010 10:50pm
Quote
Hey, that was years ago though! But yes, I remember now that you mentioned my participation there a few hours ago. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/blushing.gif

Where am I?

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif

whatever groundworks on TA laid from years ago for me was all purely based on the dow theory, fti completed my search for the final missing link.
  • #16,245
  • Jun 8, 2010 11:04pm Jun 8, 2010 11:04pm
as I look at her now @ 1945 she feels like she wants to move south.

she looks better above 50.
  • #16,246
  • Jun 8, 2010 11:08pm Jun 8, 2010 11:08pm
Quoting lilpip
as I look at her now @ 1945 she feels like she wants to move south.
not seeing any real trends on the hourly...basically chop and more chops.
last major swings were down tho.

but daily seems to have lost some steam...
best to wait for europe to give directions...imho
  • #16,247
  • Jun 8, 2010 11:10pm Jun 8, 2010 11:10pm
Quoting jest1081
whatever groundworks on TA laid from years ago for me was all purely based on the dow theory, fti completed my search for the final missing link.
I'll definitely have a look in to it... I've written 'Dow theory, Jest Thread, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31&page=2' on my to do list, so I wont forget.

@lilpip - I wont be confident enough to add on any breaks to the downside, If I do want to add, I'll wait for a pullback after the break to do it.

EDIT: Will you guys believe me if the price shoots up, and I say that I went short on purpose because I wanted to try a rescue?
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #16,248
  • Jun 8, 2010 11:16pm Jun 8, 2010 11:16pm
Quoting jest1081
not seeing any real trends on the hourly...basically chop and more chops.
last major swings were down tho.

but daily seems to have lost some steam...
best to wait for europe to give directions...imho
I hear ya im just looking for a small 30-40 pip move for now,so im watching that 45 area.
  • #16,249
  • Jun 8, 2010 11:31pm Jun 8, 2010 11:31pm
Quoting lilpip
I hear ya im just looking for a small 30-40 pip move for now,so im watching that 45 area.
If GU drops, it looks set for a reasonable one... I agree with Jest that EU looks borderline... but if one looks at UJ and GU they are looking long and short respectively, which supports a EU short trade.

Just my take, and I'd be interested to hear a counter argument.

EDIT: @ Jest: What percentage (roughly) of trades that you make don't require a rescue?
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #16,250
  • Edited Jun 9, 2010 1:00am Jun 8, 2010 11:52pm | Edited Jun 9, 2010 1:00am
A push of a few pips lower and the 15m, 30m, 1h all look short.

Only willing to add on a pull-back from the 1.1920 level or lower. This is because I am still close to my entry price and would have double my risk on the table; if price retraced back to my 1st entry then I'd feel obliged to close it if I had a position at a lower price in the market. Two lots in the market and negative would require double the rescue power to do the same job, so that's a no-no.

This make sense in the context of FTI trading?

EDIT: Not completely happy because I'm not sure where I would bail out of the trade. If I bailed due to the 1d trend being compromised then I'd lose a lot. Alternatively, if I bailed because the 4h trend changed I would probably only get one chance to rescue, plus this point is only about 50 pips away from my initial entry.

EDIT 2: Not even decided on my attack skew yet. 1,1,2,etc seems a little slow, I think 1,2,3 might be more suitable. A 1,2 would mean that, from the scout entry (1) to my second entry (2) a 35% move against me would leave me at BE. Hmm.

EDIT 3: A possibility is that I could use a lower skew (1,1,2etc) for closer entries; this would leave me with more room for a trade to breath between entry and BE (a 50% retrace from the 1st attack would leave me at BE). This is very lax thinking isn't it? I know one of the lessons here is that rigidity kills.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #16,251
  • Jun 9, 2010 12:43am Jun 9, 2010 12:43am
Quoting piccolo
I am not in US but try Citi FX Pro (www.citifxpro.lv), don't confuse it with FX Pro, which is a bucket shop based in Cypress.

I am with InterbankFX which is in US. Many people complain about them but I find them decent. Have never seen a server busy message, lol. Withdrawals are almost instant.

regards,
ya,thanks.
I know some retired big boys, they trades there.(InterbankFX)
so must be quiet decent.

regards
  • #16,252
  • Jun 9, 2010 1:15am Jun 9, 2010 1:15am
Gd afternoon sir, good to see you around, I trust that you have been good ?
  • #16,253
  • Jun 9, 2010 2:01am Jun 9, 2010 2:01am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Short- EU- 1.1946- 1 lot

EDIT: What would we consider a break of the daily trend? 600pips north?
On the 4h and 1h a break of about 1.1980 could be considered the beginning of an uptrend.
Short- EU- 1.1949- 1 lot

Time to go college... closed both at 1.1956. 16pips + Spread lost. Annoyed I couldn't go through a trade properly.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #16,254
  • Jun 9, 2010 4:42am Jun 9, 2010 4:42am
Is it possible to trade this method, while also working 9-5 (for me is UK so I am working during london)?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #16,255
  • Jun 9, 2010 4:44am Jun 9, 2010 4:44am
The biggest challenge is the time commitment required.
  • #16,256
  • Jun 9, 2010 5:04am Jun 9, 2010 5:04am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
The biggest challenge is the time commitment required.
Do you mean to learning?, I have plenty of free time in evening and weekends to do that, just the from bout 8-6 mon-fri gmt (ie London open to well into ny open) I am at work.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #16,257
  • Edited 5:23am Jun 9, 2010 5:11am | Edited 5:23am
Quoting markmm
Do you mean to learning?, I have plenty of free time in evening and weekends to do that, just the from bout 8-6 mon-fri gmt (ie London open to well into ny open) I am at work.
What I noticed very early is the time and attention required. As a result I don't trade so much these days unless I am relatively free. I do observe the charts constantly.
  • #16,258
  • Edited 8:53am Jun 9, 2010 5:13am | Edited 8:53am
Quoting markmm
just the from bout 8-6 mon-fri gmt (ie London open to well into ny open) I am at work.
So, your trading time might be mostly NewYork afternoon(sleep during Tokyo).

Not enough time to make money.
  • #16,259
  • Jun 9, 2010 5:17am Jun 9, 2010 5:17am
Quoting Zoran
What I noticed very early is the time and attention required. As a result I don't trade so much these days unless I am relatively free.
I suppose you need 3-4 hours uninterrupted during a liquid period in the markets to make this work. I can access my borker at work in from 1-5pm GMT so there might be an opportunity there.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #16,260
  • Edited 9:22am Jun 9, 2010 5:18am | Edited 9:22am
Quoting imjscn
So, your trading time might be mostly NewYork afternoon....
Yeah its dead at that time. Wish I lived in another TimeZone i.e. I arrived hom from work as London opened.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
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