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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,961
  • Jun 5, 2010 6:08pm Jun 5, 2010 6:08pm
Hello I have recently found out that price moves within each time frame's granularity; I draw D1 and H4 levels on a H1 chart but what confuses me is I can't predict correctly wchich level to choose as my goal. You'd say D1 level would bo of more importance than H1 but times and times price flys through D1 level to stall and reverse at H1 level. So I get entry/exit levels every 25-30 points and then level clusters within 15 point range. Is it all guess game wchich level will hold or what.

Second question I would like to ask is: levels of much importence, where battles occured on a numerous occasions - are these levels more likely to hold in the future if last time the price level was used like 3 days ago? I mean the money bet/set on this level - does it have anything to do with time passed, is there still money on this level.
  • #15,962
  • Edited 9:16pm Jun 5, 2010 8:19pm | Edited 9:16pm
Quoting M-H Trader
jp morgan has driving down silver for awhile now.
Im with ya there.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayGsd.php?id=169
  • #15,963
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:41pm Jun 5, 2010 9:41pm
Quoting M-H Trader
jp morgan has driving down silver for awhile now.
have to say my bias is down from 18.02-21 area this week (of coarse not etched in concrete, will be watching how she reacts if in the area.)

looking at silvers area of extra interest at the beginning of last week.
19.71
18.51
17.31

this week
19.07
18.02-21
16.97
  • #15,964
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:54pm Jun 5, 2010 9:54pm
Quoting jest1081
hello leon,

how have you been?

you may have misintepreted alot of things in this thread.

the method has got rules. there rules of engagement have been clearly outlined.

how to attack and how to defend. it has been clearly shared. some terrains will cause you to rout some will allow you to expand depending on you analysis and direction taken.

cheers
I'm fine Jest, thanks for asking. Hope all is well for you.

Well, I've just finished my preliminary read-through. I can remember a couple of tools for decision making mentioned: Elliot wave (original 'rules') and candle stick patterns. The concept of trend is mentioned a lot, but as always, it isn't defined well and therefore a pain in the back-side to trade with.
Something else... one shouldn't be rigid, yet one should have a rescue plan? One should trade the now, yet they should keep track of what happened at previous prices?

My next step is to break down my notes in to the core ideas.

I'm still very lost on this.

Leon

PS. I enjoyed these stories a lot: Pigs at the swamp, Girl at the beech, Turtle and Scorpion, Old man on the roof.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #15,965
  • Edited 10:46pm Jun 5, 2010 10:12pm | Edited 10:46pm
Quoting edison0120
hi there,

is there any faster way of learning fti system?...
Edision & lukers,

There is no short cut in trading. Do you beleive broker sale persons said trading is easy you can make millions with little investment? No way Jose.
I tried many systems but accidently I came across to this thread Thanks god & I've been sticked to this thread nearly a year now due to my trading time only 2-3 hours a day and 2 days a week( I also tried with another systems in between). I know I'm getting there soon.

This system is a basic principle of all, you don't have to make it too compicated. I have something to confess next weekend(actually I intended to do this week but I am very busy).

Finally If you want to be 5% of the winners cos another 95% are lossers( all over the world) then you have to work hard for it there is no short cut and if you think another thread is better, take little time to learn go ahead it might suit you don't waste you time here. I think you guys should save your time to look what you are after instead of waste your time posting nonsense here.

Please leave us alone we have a lot of things to discuss & learning here.

And I beleive very systems have their own goods that why so many pro traders are using totally diffirent systems it's depending which one are suitable to them that's all. So no point to agrument.

What I did before I lurked here & there in FF, tried out if I didn't like it I moved on with respect to the author of the thread I didn't make any comment becos they spent their time to write & explain in their thread, whether it's good or no good - depends on your judgement(smart ppl can judge the thread if it is rubbish - wasting time to read then move on no more wasting time to complain). But most of all It's free. While you guys are looking for some thing new please understand their systems might suit for their purposes not yours what right do you have to complain? and most of all it's free you never pay a cent for it - no guarantee for it.

And if you have some doubt or don't understand the thread please do ask politely for sure many ppl will give you some guide or advice. And if you don't like the thread just move on, not only this thread another threads too. Pay them respect, I think that's a gentleman and good manner.

Sorry not you Edision just for the lurkers.

Cheers,
  • #15,966
  • Jun 6, 2010 2:08am Jun 6, 2010 2:08am
Quoting Gustaw
Hello I have recently found out that price moves within each time frame's granularity; I draw D1 and H4 levels on a H1 chart but what confuses me is I can't predict correctly wchich level to choose as my goal. You'd say D1 level would bo of more importance than H1 but times and times price flys through D1 level to stall and reverse at H1 level. So I get entry/exit levels every 25-30 points and then level clusters within 15 point range. Is it all guess game wchich level will hold or what.

Second question I would like to ask is: levels of much...
Go away, please.
  • #15,967
  • Jun 6, 2010 2:15am Jun 6, 2010 2:15am
If you can't read the first 200 pages, which is just an intro (lot's of stuff is found later plus the additional book reading). THEN YOU CAN'T TRADE. Guess what, trading is hard work, too.

I mean everybody can trade, only a few can do it successfully.

Keep trying to find fault with TAF, with fti and other members and you will get nowhere. Which must be pretty much where you are now.

Think before you throw stones.
  • #15,968
  • Jun 6, 2010 2:23am Jun 6, 2010 2:23am
TAF thread, March 11 2008 (sorry do not know post # because I am reading from print-outs):

"Originally Posted by alexfot
Hi, fti! I'm still not clear about how to use the law of motion and a law of vibrations in trading. I'm sorry if the question is so obvious.

Hi Alex
Understand the general influence of these laws will help your timing.
read these and see if you can understand, indepth understanding is not required.
Understanding of its influence is the foundation.
http://csep10.phys.utk.edu/astr161/l...wton3laws.html
http://www.ajna.com/articles/everything_in_motion.php
Also try to understand what "gravitation to the mean" means.
regards
PS: If you want to go indepth Law of vibrations, read the enclosed pdf"


I underlined “general influence” and “indepth understanding is not required” because for my money I won’t be studying physics or the resonance between mind and matter. I would just take note of trading 101, “the trend is your friend” and “price does not move in a straight line”. As to “gravitation to the mean” the thread discussed sma as hourly benchmark, etc., personally I prefer more calibrated tools such as Bollinger Bands and bound oscillators for gauging dynamic S&R zones for regression to mean and price gyration.

With regard to indicators or measuring tools (AOW IV.17. In respect of military methods, firstly, measurement;) it does not matter what we use or do not use, the important point is to know our tools so well that we can see and not see (not get trapped into rigid predictive modes).

As to rules: handouts or rules for sale are useless, learning to formulate our own rules is one step forward, we are there if we can throw away our rules (internalized).


Rgs,
Baifu
  • #15,969
  • Jun 6, 2010 2:28am Jun 6, 2010 2:28am
Quoting piccolo
If you can't read the first 200 pages, which is just an intro (lot's of stuff is found later plus the additional book reading). THEN YOU CAN'T TRADE. Guess what, trading is hard work, too.

I mean everybody can trade, only a few can do it successfully.

Keep trying to find fault with TAF, with fti and other members and you will get nowhere. Which must be pretty much where you are now.

Think before you throw stones.
Those who have come to harass are driven by the anxiety they are missing out on something, it's a pity they do not have the honesty to admit it even to themselves or the humility to learn from reading the thread.
  • #15,970
  • Edited 6:19am Jun 6, 2010 5:51am | Edited 6:19am
A man in a hot air balloon realized he was lost.
He reduced his altitude and saw a man below.
"Excuse me, but can you help me?
I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago but
I don't know where I am," he said.

The man below replied: "You are in a hot air balloon
hovering approximately 30 ft above the ground.
You are between 40 and 41 degrees North latitude and
between 56 and 57 degrees West longitude."

To which the balloonist replied:
"You must be a TAF member." To which the man on the ground said:
"I am, but how did you know?"

The reply came from above: "Everything you told me is
correct but I have no idea what to make of your
information, and the fact is I'm still lost.
Frankly, you've not been much help so far."

The man below responded: "You must be the typical thread lurker."
To which the balloonist replied: "Yes, I am, but how did you know?"

To which the man on the ground said: "You don't know where you
are or where you are going. You have risen to your current position
due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise which you have
no idea how to keep and you expect me to solve your problem.
The fact is, you are in exactly the same position you were in
before we met, but now, somehow, it's my fault."
  • #15,971
  • Jun 6, 2010 7:22am Jun 6, 2010 7:22am
Quoting auxesis
A man in a hot air balloon realized he was lost.
He reduced his altitude and saw a man below.
"Excuse me, but can you help me?
I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago but
I don't know where I am," he said.

The man below replied: "You are in a hot air balloon
hovering approximately 30 ft above the ground.
You are between 40 and 41 degrees North latitude and
between 56 and 57 degrees West longitude."

To which the balloonist replied:
"You must be a TAF member." To which the man on the ground said:
"I am, but how did you know?"...
Very well said Auxesis but I'm afraid that the people it was aimed at will say it's cryptic

I must say that I have read a lot about forex since I found FX trading, in fact as much as I could, and this thread, however cryptic some think it is, has made much more sense to me than anything else. That's why I keep reading it. I don't uderstand everything in the thread, because of lack of experience or knowledge, and I ask sometimes maybe stupid questions ( I hope I'm not annoying anyone with such questions). Fact is that I'm still reading new books(books I haven't read, not ones published in 2010) about forex and then come back to the thread and it still makes more sense than these books. A good piece of writing is worth rereading a million times

For those that think the thread is cryptic and it doesn't make sense, stop
reading it and go find something that is useful for you and improves your trading.

Reagards, MyTbo
  • #15,972
  • Jun 6, 2010 7:56am Jun 6, 2010 7:56am
Quoting MyTbo
Very well said Auxesis but I'm afraid that the people it was aimed at will say it's cryptic

I must say that I have read a lot about forex since I found FX trading, in fact as much as I could, and this thread, however cryptic some think it is, has made much more sense to me than anything else. That's why I keep reading it. I don't uderstand everything in the thread, because of lack of experience or knowledge, and I ask sometimes maybe stupid questions ( I hope I'm not annoying anyone with such questions). Fact is that I'm still reading...
Mytbo,

The material is not cryptic, but parts are left for interpretation, or better said fitted for the individual. Not everyone here is at the same point in their journey and each has their own appetite for risk, so a one size fits all approach will not work as each individual trader needs to understand their limitations and learn to work within and work to modify them for profitability.

Some parts of the thread are given the direction and left for individual discovery, why? Because answers will not be understood if just given in writing, they need to be experienced to be fully understood. The farther down the road you get, you will see much more contained in FTI's writings.

Trading is just as much about the individual mind as it is in the "X's and O's" technical aspects, but most never want to look inward for answers, they just seek the easy quick "secret" they believe is out there that will make them an instant success.

Much like the guy in the balloon, they learn quickly how to get off the ground, but have no direction, no plan to get to where they need to be, and looking for someone else to show them the way.

Make your own way,

regards,

Have a great weekend everyone
  • #15,973
  • Jun 6, 2010 8:05am Jun 6, 2010 8:05am
Quoting auxesis
A man in a hot air balloon realized he was lost.
He reduced his altitude and saw a man below.
"Excuse me, but can you help me?
I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago but
I don't know where I am," he said.

The man below replied: "You are in a hot air balloon
hovering approximately 30 ft above the ground.
You are between 40 and 41 degrees North latitude and
between 56 and 57 degrees West longitude."

To which the balloonist replied:
"You must be a TAF member." To which the man on the ground said:
"I am, but how did you know?"

The...
Nice!
  • #15,974
  • Jun 6, 2010 8:28am Jun 6, 2010 8:28am
Quoting piccolo
If you can't read the first 200 pages, which is just an intro (lot's of stuff is found later plus the additional book reading). THEN YOU CAN'T TRADE. Guess what, trading is hard work, too.

I mean everybody can trade, only a few can do it successfully.

Keep trying to find fault with TAF, with fti and other members and you will get nowhere. Which must be pretty much where you are now.

Think before you throw stones.
I have read first 30 pages and I didn't clear much. The fact that lagging indicators are useless is well know to me but what else then works. I've read all the chinese legends referred to trading but it doesn't help much. Price levels and price action is the best I can come up with so how you say I'm nowhere. There must be some method to refer to for everyone involved in trading.
  • #15,975
  • Jun 6, 2010 8:38am Jun 6, 2010 8:38am
Quoting auxesis
A man in a hot air balloon realized he was lost.
He reduced his altitude and saw a man below.
"Excuse me, but can you help me?
I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago but
I don't know where I am," he said.

The man below replied: "You are in a hot air balloon
hovering approximately 30 ft above the ground.
You are between 40 and 41 degrees North latitude and
between 56 and 57 degrees West longitude."

To which the balloonist replied:
"You must be a TAF member." To which the man on the ground said:
"I am, but how did you know?"...
mumbo jumbo....
I still do not understand
what you are talking about.

By the way, I think that we waste our time answering any one that those not want to read the 200 p. We cannot blame them. It is hard work but I think that reading is a truly a tuition fee. So what about to ignore those that do not want to put that effort? After all, they would not understand what we are talking about, right?

Note: I plan to make a PDF copy of the full 200 pages for my personal use.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #15,976
  • Edited 9:41am Jun 6, 2010 9:09am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
I'm fine Jest, thanks for asking. Hope all is well for you.

Well, I've just finished my preliminary read-through. I can remember a couple of tools for decision making mentioned: Elliot wave (original 'rules') and candle stick patterns. The concept of trend is mentioned a lot, but as always, it isn't defined well and therefore a pain in the back-side to trade with.
Something else... one shouldn't be rigid, yet one should have a rescue plan? One should trade the now, yet they should keep track of what happened at previous prices?

My next step...
OK, I've just re-skimmed through my notes:

I'm taking it we use the most simple definition of trend, HH+HL or LL+LH. Ideally we are looking to trade the 5m time frame trend which is in line with a higher TF trend... this enables safer rescues.

Am I correct so far?

Three Kingdoms = Wait for the majors to finish any retraces before entering a position. E.G. We are looking to trade EU short. We wait for GU to finish any upswing it may be making, and for UJ to finish any downswing it may be making.

The most conservative rescue in which one can turn a loser around is 1,1,2,3,5,8 (Fibanosey). It's advised that attacks be less aggressive than rescues.

Depending on daily(?) volatility one should use different MM. Low Volatility = aggressive MM.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #15,977
  • Jun 6, 2010 10:02am Jun 6, 2010 10:02am
Quoting auxesis

To which the man on the ground said: "You don't know where you
are or where you are going. You have risen to your current position
due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise which you have
no idea how to keep and you expect me to solve your problem.
The fact is, you are in exactly the same position you were in
before we met, but now, somehow, it's my fault."

Thanks! This helps me thoroughly understand those Hot Air Balloon men and current situation
  • #15,978
  • Jun 6, 2010 10:03am Jun 6, 2010 10:03am
Quoting imjscn

Thanks! This helps me thoroughly understand those Hot Air Balloon men and current situation
I sincerely hope that these posts do not have me in mind.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #15,979
  • Jun 6, 2010 10:12am Jun 6, 2010 10:12am
Quoting luSan
...
By the way, I think that we waste our time answering any one that those not want to read the 200 p. We cannot blame them. It is hard work but I think that reading is a truly a tuition fee. So what about to ignore those that do not want to put that effort? After all, they would not understand what we are talking about, right?
...
Hi Lusan,

Absolutely, you're right, if we respond to all the annoying people who cross our road, we will waste our time uselessly.
Let them write nonsense. They can't do otherwise. But we can ignore them.

People who think that this or that method or system is a failure
to trade fx, should be very happy that many people follow it,
the more losers there are, the better it is.

Or maybe they do not understand this business yet?

Rgs,

Textor
  • #15,980
  • Edited 10:38am Jun 6, 2010 10:14am | Edited 10:38am
My apologies to interrupt speculation here on the fiber.
I'll try something else and write what "we all know".If the no topic into the thread, excuse me.

Gann "tunnel" decode (taken):

In total, there is 16 planes in the original artwork of the dust cover.
Four, in a downward spiral on each inside flap ... that is 8, so far.
eight more feature on the front cover, again, 7 of these appear in a diving attitude and a SOLE bi-plane in a climbing posture, within "the tunnel".
There would seem to be some conflict about the design of these aircraft, especially considering the origin of the plans.
Eight divisions of a proven price range was a common ploy by gann, just like the planes at different levels.

On the front cover, there also seems to be a veiled reference to a Fibo sequence with a certain number of the planes being flown in different zones to accentuate the sequence:
plane above the tunnel - 1
planes in the tunnel - 1+2=3
planes grouped together,just below the tunnel - 2+3=5
planes in total below the tunnel - 3+5=8

= 1-3-5-8 Fibo seq.

Positioning of the planes shows them all diving, except for the bi-plane, which is inside the uptrending tunnel.
here is a suggestion to trade with the trend, otherwise become a casualty in this war.

even then, a ratio of 1 winner to 15 losers was apparent to Gann.

along the lower edge of both the front and back covers three main geometric shapes have been highlighted in the city scene, they are:
triangle,square,circle.

Finally, in this opening section, "the tunnel" itself, is shown to be uptrending.this looks to be the same as a typical trading channel, on any price chart.

Such channels define a set trading range, that is repeated often, to the benefit of many astute traders.

True, but the methods used to construct the tunnel or channel correctly, is one message that Gann has presented in "Tunnel" ... etc.

"Truth is stranger than fiction".

Regards

PS "who seek, find it" and "laziness kills"
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