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Dan's Self-Honesty Journal

  • #101
  • Jun 3, 2010 3:41pm Jun 3, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
Also, if you haven't already, go buy the book MARKET WIZARDS, INTERVIEWS WITH TOP TRADERS. It's an insanely amazing read.
Dan, I read your post saying this on James16 thread. I went to the library just last night and checked out the only version they have..

"The New Market Wizards, Conversations with America's top Traders".

Just got started, I am very impressed.

Thanks!
  • #102
  • Jun 4, 2010 3:28pm Jun 4, 2010 3:28pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Dan, I read your post saying this on James16 thread. I went to the library just last night and checked out the only version they have..

"The New Market Wizards, Conversations with America's top Traders".

Just got started, I am very impressed.

Thanks!
the one you have was published later (different book, same author). I am going to order that one next actually. the first one was published in 1989 after the market crash of 1987 and you got to see how some traders got killed, and others had their best year ever (both types were interviewed in the book). It's awesome.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #103
  • Jun 5, 2010 12:44pm Jun 5, 2010 12:44pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
We begin trading again on monday. This week was pretty sideways, I was slightly anticipating that actually.... The way things look across the boards, s&p, dow especially look to be sideways (although I was anticipating crude to take a dive this week).

Maybe next week there will be better opportunity.
Last weeks two completed trades:

LIVE ACCOUNT:
AUDUSD: -0.3% loss

DEMO ACCOUNT:
Gold: -0.5% loss






Uneventful week. Sideways market. I think the NFP tipped the scale in my favor for next weeks trades.

When I saw AUD/USD start falling on Friday, I had to place a trade. There's no way I'm missing this run down. I have been so convinced to short that I'm not missing my opportunity, so I placed a sell stop on Friday on the break of the old support. Managing with a 301 trailing stop that is effective immediately. T/P: 0.8020, 1% risk.


Also I'm looking to catch the CHFJPY BEOB for next week. The correlation between the fall of Aud and the rise of Jpy is very close, I'll take it next week for an additional 1% to the A/U trade which will be running simultaneously. Normally I would rather short EUR/JPY but I feel this one with the swissy is a cleaner setup. GBPUSD weekly bearish pin looks nice as well.... More of the same downtrend I'm seeing for the week upcoming.

Next post I will break down commodities for next week.
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Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #104
  • Jun 5, 2010 1:28pm Jun 5, 2010 1:28pm
Gold and Crude, my two favorites. I will trade both of these bars, the Crude BEOB, and the Gold bullish bar. I know the gold bar is not a specific PA signal, but the location is obvious, the trend is obvious. the bullish bar is more than enough confirmation for me to place my trade.
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Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #105
  • Jun 5, 2010 1:33pm Jun 5, 2010 1:33pm
I will note that the correlation between all these trades for next week is the same, except for Gold. Gold is the only "hedge" type of trade I will be placing here. I think that before I go live on my futures trading, I need a Portfolio risk measure that I can use in conjunction with the currency trading, and identify the correlation between commodities, currencies, and the currency+commodity relationships.... Need to get started on that.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #106
  • Jun 6, 2010 5:44pm Jun 6, 2010 5:44pm
I'm really spreading my risk out here accross a lot of pairs. I feel this is a great way to catch the same run, but lower your risk across different pairs.

You will see I have placed two trades for each pair in the pending order area of the terminal, that is because each trade has a different T/P, Essentially a scale-out method, with 1% total risk on each pair, spread over 4 pairs.
Also the trade that is already active (AUDUSD) was a 1% risk.

management: Trailing stops effective immediately.

CHFJPY (daily BEOB): 268 pip trailing
GBPJPY (3 day pinbar): 465 pip trailing
GBPUSD (weekly pin): 400 pip trailing
USDCAD (weekly pin): 316 pip trailing
AUDUSD (old support broken on downtrend): 301 pip trailing
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Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #107
  • Jun 6, 2010 9:49pm Jun 6, 2010 9:49pm
Hi Dan

I am trying to get handle on setting my SL targets, hence this question which I hope you won't mind asking.

I noticed that in case of CHFJPY you are setting the SL far more than a full bar loss. It is 268 pips versus much smaller TP, effectively the RR is 3 : 1 - correct ??

Did you find this large SL technique better than tight stops ??

Thanks !!
  • #108
  • Jun 6, 2010 10:10pm Jun 6, 2010 10:10pm
Quoting sakrani
Hi Dan

I am trying to get handle on setting my SL targets, hence this question which I hope you won't mind asking.

I noticed that in case of CHFJPY you are setting the SL far more than a full bar loss. It is 268 pips versus much smaller TP, effectively the RR is 3 : 1 - correct ??

Did you find this large SL technique better than tight stops ??

Thanks !!
Only half of the CHFJPY trade is about 3:1 risk:reward. the other half of that position is closer to 1.5:1 risk:reward. Also note that my trailing stop is already following my trade, so risk is being reduced everytime the trade makes another pip into profit. I don't try to worry as much about R:R because if I focus too much on it, I consider it greedy, and then you will begin to fail. I don't think I would ever allow the trade to take a full bar loss without me manually stepping in when things are clearly not going my way, but I ussually don't get involved in those scenarios anymore ever since I applied my "go with trend" rule....
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #109
  • Jun 6, 2010 10:43pm Jun 6, 2010 10:43pm
Hi Dan

Thanks for the quick response and explanation. I overlooked the fact that the SL is trailing.

Much appreciated.



Quoting Dan Gilbert
Only half of the CHFJPY trade is about 3:1 risk:reward. the other half of that position is closer to 1.5:1 risk:reward. Also note that my trailing stop is already following my trade, so risk is being reduced everytime the trade makes another pip into profit. I don't try to worry as much about R:R because if I focus too much on it, I consider it greedy, and then you will begin to fail. I don't think I would ever allow the trade to take a full bar loss without me manually stepping in when things are clearly not going my way, but I ussually don't get...
  • #110
  • Oct 5, 2010 6:20am Oct 5, 2010 6:20am
whatever happened to this thread? Is it dead now?
PA is where its at!!
  • #111
  • Last Post: Oct 20, 2010 5:25am Oct 20, 2010 5:25am
Quoting bertie123
whatever happened to this thread? Is it dead now?
Looks like it.
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