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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,901
  • Jun 4, 2010 3:45am Jun 4, 2010 3:45am
Quoting Setebos
LOL, I hope you never make it do desperate ground.



@dongsky - share some pics, mate, don't be shy
sure will mate
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,902
  • Jun 4, 2010 4:23am Jun 4, 2010 4:23am
Good morning everyone
Today is the day:
tsunami warning.
things could either go crazy
or be very calm.
Best is to be out.
Those that stay in
are in gambling mode.
Good luck to all.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #15,903
  • Jun 4, 2010 4:24am Jun 4, 2010 4:24am
Markets on the move. EUR/CHF and EUR/USD wanna see if they can go through the floor

I have a question, maybe a wierd one. What happens when you have limit order and it somehow gest in the middle of a weekly gap? Does it get filled at the opening price ( better price) or at the price which it was placed. In the thread fti said that stop orders never fill at better price, so I guess if you have stop loss in the middle of the weekly gap, it will be filled at the worse price. But what happens if it is a limit order or a buy/sell stop order?
  • #15,904
  • Jun 4, 2010 4:25am Jun 4, 2010 4:25am
Quoting Piglet
Yes, you are right, there is no fti-method. Therefore fti's trading could also be called ad-hoc trading, or trading based on your feeling of the market. The only method that is offered here is a method for rescues when your feeling has misled you.

Considering the previous, I'm surprised of the popularity of this thread.
I think you totally misunderstood my post.

This is in essence HOW to properly trade. "Trading 101" so to speak

All other systems and methods are off -shoots of these basics, but their attempt to redefine or curve-fit the market limits their ability to profit or even succeed.

The market has to be traded in an "if-then" mentality.

When you understand this, you'll understand the knowledge of this thread.

regards
  • #15,905
  • Jun 4, 2010 4:56am Jun 4, 2010 4:56am
News items on CNBC: Hungary added to the list of countries needing restructuring of debt; big French bank in trouble with trading losses; HSBC downgrades Europe (except England) due to concerns about banks; SNB letting the franc climb on the euro. Next up: US NFP. Maybe NFP will get us back to square and I can start from there...current move caught me sleeping.
  • #15,906
  • Jun 4, 2010 5:07am Jun 4, 2010 5:07am
Quoting Setebos
LOL, I hope you never make it do desperate ground. Once you do it doesn't matter if you read AoW or the Qur'an just like it makes no difference if you scream "Banzai!" or "Allahu Akbar" - you will be equally dead once you push the button
Old man's words: Always preserve capital!
Sun Tse was not a native English speaker, what he meant by desperate

AOW XI.10. Ground on which we can only be saved from destruction by fighting without delay, is desperate ground.

Agreed kamikaze fighter has the wrong suicidal omen, I shall rename them kamis (Shinto gods)

My interpretation of desperate ground is bad DD situations which finally see market turn around, this is the time to fight without delay and deploy kamis. 10 kami pips is 0.5% book (resource heavy) so must find the right balance between preserving capital and fighting without delay. I tell myself no kami deployment if buying power is not at least as many as troops in the field after kami deployment.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #15,907
  • Jun 4, 2010 5:25am Jun 4, 2010 5:25am
Numbers in 5 min


V
  • #15,908
  • Jun 4, 2010 6:01am Jun 4, 2010 6:01am
Quoting GEfx
News items on CNBC: Hungary added to the list of countries needing restructuring of debt; big French bank in trouble with trading losses; HSBC downgrades Europe (except England) due to concerns about banks; SNB letting the franc climb on the euro. Next up: US NFP. Maybe NFP will get us back to square and I can start from there...current move caught me sleeping.
Thanks for the fundies info, buddy
  • #15,909
  • Edited 6:48am Jun 4, 2010 6:12am | Edited 6:48am
400,000 some jobs created, 41,000 or so privite sector out of that.

if the government can afford to let the some 650,000 census workers go then what happens ?

thats more workers than most companies in america such as airlines, utilities, residential construction. etc.?

watching 2028 area.
  • #15,910
  • Edited 7:41am Jun 4, 2010 6:39am | Edited 7:41am
Wow, crazy day so far. I am looking at the following for trades going south; E/$ - 1.2095; GBP/$ - 1.4650; and E/Y - 111.58. These are minimum levels and are not predictive, but represent sufficient pull back/squaring up for possible trade. Trade well everyone!

Edit: short the E/$ at 1.2074, protecting the entry now. Short the E/J at 111.16, protecting the entry now.
Edit2: Square on the E/$ at .2050, and square on the E/J at 110.98. Waiting for the next entry opportunity.
  • #15,911
  • Jun 4, 2010 8:03am Jun 4, 2010 8:03am
Quoting GEfx
Wow, crazy day so far. I am looking at the following for trades going south; E/$ - 1.2095; GBP/$ - 1.4650; and E/Y - 111.58. These are minimum levels and are not predictive, but represent sufficient pull back/squaring up for possible trade. Trade well everyone!

Edit: short the E/$ at 1.2074, protecting the entry now. Short the E/J at 111.16, protecting the entry now.
Edit2: Square on the E/$ at .2050, and square on the E/J at 110.98. Waiting for the next entry opportunity.


too bad its friday, otherwise its gonna be more fun...
  • #15,912
  • Jun 4, 2010 8:17am Jun 4, 2010 8:17am
Quoting aiyahmarklah


too bad its friday, otherwise its gonna be more fun...
Agree with that. I am being quick and nimble today becasue it's Friday, just trading rather than taking poistions. I may be done for the day/week, but will hang in for a little longer to see if something else develops. Take care!
  • #15,913
  • Jun 4, 2010 8:25am Jun 4, 2010 8:25am
Quoting GEfx
Agree with that. I am being quick and nimble today becasue it's Friday, just trading rather than taking poistions. I may be done for the day/week, but will hang in for a little longer to see if something else develops. Take care!
On contrary, I accumulated shorts throughout the week as I took lesser screen time this week, stupid me, never consider the roll over rates, but still a neat profit anyway.
  • #15,914
  • Jun 4, 2010 9:35am Jun 4, 2010 9:35am
Done for the week, have a great weekend everybody, please, leave FF alone for the weekend, there are more important things to do !!

Attached Image
  • #15,915
  • Jun 4, 2010 10:42am Jun 4, 2010 10:42am
The only fallacy in the markets are people's expectations. They believe in prediction but are not equipped to do so. You could study the internet forums and sites for 5 years and not be savvy enough to predict directions.

huge problems for traders:
taking advice from gurus and only trading daily charts (later to snap and go overtrade a lower time frame out of boredom)

taking systems from internet forums(duh! don't do it. 90% of traders lose. be different)

trading systems that rely on one big winner to wipe out three small losers. (Your mind and confidence cannot handle this as a newer trader. You will give up on the system after 3 losers so don't even bother.)

Suggestions:
Devise a system that causes you to win more often then lose. ie: bigger stop loss, shorter profit. (make sure that you can win often enough to soak up the one loss every once in awhile).

Stay away from other people's courses

Stay away from other people's "signals"

Don't ever doubt your strategy, no matter how bizarre or backwards it may seem to others. If you can make it work, do it and don't ask anyone for permission. Be creative, make your entries conditions clear
  • #15,916
  • Jun 4, 2010 10:57am Jun 4, 2010 10:57am
Why people dont even read 200 pages and then ask questions.....

I am being a silent observer....

People either just put some Copy paste statement or just ask....why not people first read 200 pages of thread....

V
  • #15,917
  • Jun 4, 2010 12:28pm Jun 4, 2010 12:28pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Why people dont even read 200 pages and then ask questions.....

I am being a silent observer....

People either just put some Copy paste statement or just ask....why not people first read 200 pages of thread....

V
because it is work.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #15,918
  • Jun 4, 2010 1:15pm Jun 4, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Why people dont even read 200 pages and then ask questions.....

I am being a silent observer....

People either just put some Copy paste statement or just ask....why not people first read 200 pages of thread....

V
Because it is easier to proclaim that it won't/can't work, or that it isn't clear, or that blah blah blah, than it is to put in the work and ask intellegent questions. Maybe it's best to ignore them, or perhaps we should put together a standard response to them and then ignore them. Whatever, its the weekend and the euro is below 1.20. Looking forward to next week!
  • #15,919
  • Jun 4, 2010 1:18pm Jun 4, 2010 1:18pm
Quoting GEfx
Because it is easier to proclaim that it won't/can't work, or that it isn't clear, or that blah blah blah, than it is to put in the work and ask intellegent questions. Maybe it's best to ignore them, or perhaps we should put together a standard response to them and then ignore them. Whatever, its the weekend and the euro is below 1.20. Looking forward to next week!
I agree with this....
  • #15,920
  • Jun 4, 2010 2:38pm Jun 4, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting GEfx
Because it is easier to proclaim that it won't/can't work, or that it isn't clear, or that blah blah blah, than it is to put in the work and ask intellegent questions. Maybe it's best to ignore them, or perhaps we should put together a standard response to them and then ignore them. Whatever, its the weekend and the euro is below 1.20. Looking forward to next week!
Did I not ask intelligent questions? You have a stock attitude toward me, automatically putting me in the box with all the lazy brainless types. What you don't realise is that I'm not an idiot like a lot of people on this forum are... and it's that very thing that leads me to question how a method so discretionary can be profitable.

One of the contributors to this thread said something along the lines of "I'm profitable and most of the people who use FTI's method are too". Am I not supposed to question such a claim? By it's nature, speculative trading has a very large wash-out rate, yet using this method 'most' people are profitable? Please tell me you don't share the same sentiment.

You are the one who has acted wrongly, both you and FTI. Failing to talk things out and resorting to immature gibberish speak and insults isn't productive.
Living the adventure in my head.
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