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Fibonacci Paradise

  • #761
  • Jun 4, 2010 10:57am Jun 4, 2010 10:57am
Quoting Misterdaz
My point on this fib is it is not valid on my data.

MD.
Sorry. I wasn't following the conversation very well.
  • #762
  • Jun 4, 2010 12:15pm Jun 4, 2010 12:15pm
Dear lord... chuckleI think we can go over at least EU as to where i mucked it up.Actualy truth be told I mucked up EU a little while back. Good news for me... my GY did what it should of...just not when i thought it would.

That NFP is a monster. Oddly enough things aren't getting better?

If anyone else had any bad charts we can over those as well. if you get a bad chart it is important you can go back and say here is what i missed. ..not oh it is obvious now.. but oh i missed this when i was setting up. If that makes sense.

TK
  • #763
  • Jun 4, 2010 12:52pm Jun 4, 2010 12:52pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Looks like all hell is breaking loose.
Thank the lord I was slumbering for that mess. I like fundamentals for something to talk about but do not trade them... but in conjunction with longer terms charts. Yikes.

K on to bad charts. yes i know i am using big lines you can use small ones it doesnt matter. This platform has big line and it makes it easier for my eyes .

EU I picked bad support. I thought about it at the time.. and decided i was comfortable with it. Trading the immediate move or using the swing support keeps us out of the mire. The fib looked good but there were more immediate concerns to deal with.

AU: I posted a big chart ... it may go there but following sequence... it went here first and stopped.

AK47: you may be wondering about your chart. To be honest i don't know that my fib would have been here but..after the fact i would have certainly found it. It doesnt mean turn for ever.. i just would be tracking short. it does have a 61.8 50. To help you perhaps... the yellow boxes are where the main fib moves points are. The take away from this.. when you are using the 61.8 in the middle of a move. not ultimate high or low of the leg.. you need to understand the low or high is controlling the whole thing if it is closed and your fib target is higher.. it may get there.. may..not will.

Did we miss anything gents?

TK
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  • #764
  • Jun 4, 2010 1:06pm Jun 4, 2010 1:06pm
Here is my EU fib I took a dive with earlier leading me to think long. if you zoom in it didnt complete... but if you are not anal... it most certainly did even not using jumbo fib. I really wish i had a better answer then this, but i don't.. again another thing i looked at it.. and pa and scratched my pate.. I had it closed and open and eventually settled on open. I spose there is a lesson there. Chuckle. I think that is it but if there is more we can tackle em before beer oclock.

TK
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  • #765
  • Jun 4, 2010 1:16pm Jun 4, 2010 1:16pm
Thom, I'm making a prediction and you're my witness. GY will turn around at 131.72.




Bartstop
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  • #766
  • Jun 4, 2010 1:21pm Jun 4, 2010 1:21pm
here is my experiment from chart two that was where i guessed at a turn wrongly.It failed to trigger a higher cycle found the 50 and collapsed. now look at that mess. Now look at the third chart. which would you rather.


TK
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  • #767
  • Jun 4, 2010 1:34pm Jun 4, 2010 1:34pm
Quoting bartstop
Thom, I'm making a prediction and you're my witness. GY will turn around at 131.72.




Bartstop
That certainly looks like a good place to look for one from those charts!

EDIT i don't... mostly because time and time again i cant pick turns Chuckle.. but 132.21 has stuff all over it looks like.
  • #768
  • Jun 4, 2010 5:55pm Jun 4, 2010 5:55pm
Using standard fib rules.. 61.8 forward pull back.. leave in place once hit and modifying it to go to the 4th degree. I also added in 50 lines.. so essentially this is just a quad stacked fib. Now following another observation... once hit to the tick... and turn... if breaching the other side with a modicum of respect... well.. takes the other target.

So in this example... not found beforhand. SP500 completed 4 138 cycles based off of the first pullback.. the orange boxes validate on the way up every "major" pull back was bounced off of this fib.

ON the way down from its journey it pierced and smashed into the 50% division of the 4th cycle and turned. this would have me targetting 997(the neg 1.38 of the 4th cycle) ISH standard fib protocol is it can retrace to the dickens.. but a rejection on a validated fib then pierce retrace fail candle break is a good thought.

Another thought is trace from the to the tick hit and track short seee chart 2 sans 50% divisions.

In a dream world the goal would be to enter this and take it to the controlling before crash swings target if lower is signalled. however that doesnt always work properly(for me)
TK
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  • #769
  • Jun 4, 2010 6:16pm Jun 4, 2010 6:16pm
I retooled my daily in a different more standard form... but hear me out... logically price action crashed into a 61.8 kissed the signal line... then pierced and retreated.. would that not signal the orange target.. or the 1.38 of that cycle...

ok mates i am done doing my lab work here but i found this fascinating and it all meets logical thoght as far as I know about fibs.


TK
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  • #770
  • Jun 5, 2010 11:43am Jun 5, 2010 11:43am
Quoting ThomKnight
I retooled my daily in a different more standard form... but hear me out... logically price action crashed into a 61.8 kissed the signal line... then pierced and retreated.. would that not signal the orange target.. or the 1.38 of that cycle...

ok mates i am done doing my lab work here but i found this fascinating and it all meets logical thoght as far as I know about fibs.


TK
Nice idea Thom. A mirror image fib. Normally we would have moved the fib looking short, down to new resistance as the 138 is pierced. Let's see how that pans out.

Thom when you are in your lab, do you wear a white coat? Lol.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #771
  • Jun 5, 2010 12:19pm Jun 5, 2010 12:19pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Nice idea Thom. A mirror image fib. Normally we would have moved the fib looking short, down to new resistance as the 138 is pierced. Let's see how that pans out.

Thom when you are in your lab, do you wear a white coat? Lol.

MD.
A kilt... a coat, a top hat ,godzilla noise slippers and crystal cane mate... the only thing missing from the equation is decent curry. Yanks can't seem to do that right well that and comedy..

Full disclosure... i go off on wild tears with fibs every so often... but I normally come back to simplicity. I have the afternoon free you have anything you want to go over? We can just chew the fat about footie or we could just grab some tickets to rio for a "business meeting" chuckle.

TK
  • #772
  • Edited 5:37pm Jun 5, 2010 12:43pm | Edited 5:37pm
Quoting ThomKnight
A kilt... a coat, a top hat ,godzilla noise slippers and crystal cane mate... the only thing missing from the equation is decent curry. Yanks can't seem to do that right well that and comedy..

Full disclosure... i go off on wild tears with fibs every so often... but I normally come back to simplicity. I have the afternoon free you have anything you want to go over? We can just chew the fat about footie or we could just grab some tickets to rio for a "business meeting" chuckle.

TK
Thom, I would love to chew that fat with you tonight. I'm sure there's a lot we could talk about other than fibs. Unfortunately I have to go to my sisters 40th birthday party being held in Charlton. Might be about later unless the wife decides to drive in which case I'll probably have one too many bevvies.

Take care, MD.
Keep smiling
  • #773
  • Jun 5, 2010 3:32pm Jun 5, 2010 3:32pm
G'day...just setting 3 data points in orange... and look what happened...as always touchy fib and data is an issue so i have to allign to visual clues within a 61.8 context. This whole thing is tradeable as a trade fib or a frame work fib to trade in. as always... one pip moves the last line 40000 million ticks, Chuckle. you can just take this thing out to the nth degree... place one fib on our chart... and track it for the rest of your life just from the start of price.

TK
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  • #774
  • Jun 5, 2010 5:48pm Jun 5, 2010 5:48pm
Quoting ThomKnight
G'day...just setting 3 data points in orange... and look what happened...as always touchy fib and data is an issue so i have to allign to visual clues within a 61.8 context. This whole thing is tradeable as a trade fib or a frame work fib to trade in. as always... one pip moves the last line 40000 million ticks, Chuckle. you can just take this thing out to the nth degree... place one fib on our chart... and track it for the rest of your life just from the start of price.

TK
God I hate discos! Agadoo doo doo doo. F*cking shite.

You watching the world cup Thom? I see England have a gift of a group. We have the USA in there but I doubt the yankee boys here will be interested.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #775
  • Jun 6, 2010 12:08pm Jun 6, 2010 12:08pm
i am going to start posting on this thread as well

i try and trade of the inner fibs to the 138 target--- i have a decent amount of losers but the winners more than make up for the losses. i am risking 2% per trade and will not take a trade (off the inner) unless i have at least a 2-1 RR, most are 4-1 or greater.

i rarely use swing fibs, i fit the .618 both ways by pulling up or back down on a given swing.

i still get ones that fail sometimes and i am unsure of why that is, i hope ThomKnight can maybe give me some hints when i find one that i think is valid and it fails.

i mostly trade h1 and m15 charts as far as day to day goes

i also have a different account that i make swing trades on


i will start my posted charts with these

1. GU daily---- currently will be looking to takes long this week for a move up to .4894

2. i have the dollar going down large as i am sure everyone has looked at

3. i am still short on the EJ off this chart.--- i have been in and out of this trade probably 15 times or so --- looking for this fib to complete target is 108.15

http://i50.tinypic.com/2d92v4x.gif

http://i49.tinypic.com/148j1v5.gif

http://i48.tinypic.com/24x2mn8.gif
  • #776
  • Jun 6, 2010 5:23pm Jun 6, 2010 5:23pm
I sure hope the Aud/Usd is about to become Bullish!
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  • #777
  • Jun 6, 2010 5:40pm Jun 6, 2010 5:40pm
Quoting Checkz
I sure hope the Aud/Usd is about to become Bullish!
Hope..? have you tracked the down move from the dbl top yet? in my mind that is super so close i would consider it closed out... or enter with a razor tight top long.


Personally i wait until a swing or two has formed most of the time.


TK
  • #778
  • Jun 6, 2010 5:47pm Jun 6, 2010 5:47pm
Quoting Misterdaz
God I hate discos! Agadoo doo doo doo. F*cking shite.

You watching the world cup Thom? I see England have a gift of a group. We have the USA in there but I doubt the yankee boys here will be interested.

MD.
meh the colonies don't know what they are missing!
  • #779
  • Jun 6, 2010 5:48pm Jun 6, 2010 5:48pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Hope..? have you tracked the down move from the dbl top yet? in my mind that is super so close i would consider it closed out... or enter with a razor tight top long.


Personally i wait until a swing or two has formed most of the time.


TK
You use the swing fib method to track price right. If not that's what I did with the red fib.
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  • #780
  • Jun 6, 2010 7:05pm Jun 6, 2010 7:05pm
Quoting Checkz
You use the swing fib method to track price right. If not that's what I did with the red fib.
You most certainly may. I was just putting in my two drachma on that set up. A track fib is not a trading fib unless it conforms and gives you reason to trade it. IN its present state it is just potentially telling you to either look for a long or perhaps wait until you frame work signals a long with confofmation.

My thought was it got close enough to a target and then form a double dop so currently i would be tracking/trading shorts.. , but actually mate i wait until the market gets into a groove.. i very rarely trade opens just for the fact it is choppy and it takes a second for the market to remember the tune it was playing.

TK

edit: i misspoke the red fib was going short.. mea culpa.. yesso now you need to find a shorter fib pull either a lower S or go to the higher peak and work back down that since it is the controlling swing.
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