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Silent Service Method

  • #8,981
  • Jun 4, 2010 6:43am Jun 4, 2010 6:43am
[quote=InfinitySL;3775126]Here's an outside the box currency -- The Hungarian Forint (USD/HUF)...

Nice call
  • #8,982
  • Jun 4, 2010 6:51am Jun 4, 2010 6:51am
I just realized that I am heavily short the EUR. 3 out of my 4 trades are short EUR/XXX.

I need to be more careful in the future and spread the risk out a little, or take into account the correlation of my trades when figuring MM.

I hope the market goes my way after the NFP.
  • #8,983
  • Jun 4, 2010 7:07am Jun 4, 2010 7:07am
Quoting jharvey407
I just realized that I am heavily short the EUR. 3 out of my 4 trades are short EUR/XXX.

I need to be more careful in the future and spread the risk out a little, or take into account the correlation of my trades when figuring MM.

I hope the market goes my way after the NFP.

Yeah, I would be careful doing that as well. I try not to ever have more than 2 trades of the same currency on at the same time. I am not saying close them out now.......but in the future.......be careful about that.
  • #8,984
  • Jun 4, 2010 7:11am Jun 4, 2010 7:11am
Quoting jharvey407
I just realized that I am heavily short the EUR. 3 out of my 4 trades are short EUR/XXX.

I need to be more careful in the future and spread the risk out a little, or take into account the correlation of my trades when figuring MM.

I hope the market goes my way after the NFP.
You can always take it off the table till after the release if you're concerned however with everything hanging over Europe, I think it will struggle to turn around.

Hungary potentially defaulting on debt, talk of a massive derivative loss at Societe Generale Bank in France (again) and HSBC downgrading Europe to a sell to clients today is certainly putting wind in your sales (sic)!

Btw, did you end up entering your AUDNZD sell trade that you had pending after the entry signal daily pin bar was broken to the upside?

Interested in your thoughts as I am still trying to fine tune my understanding of this method.

Cheers and down with the Euro, 4x.
  • #8,985
  • Jun 4, 2010 7:20am Jun 4, 2010 7:20am
Quoting clockwork71
Yeah, I would be careful doing that as well. I try not to ever have more than 2 trades of the same currency on at the same time. I am not saying close them out now.......but in the future.......be careful about that.
Yeah, I realize that now.

Most of the orders were triggered automatically. I have been doing analysis daily, and placing orders where they seem appropriate.

It makes sense that EUR/XXX pairs would print similar price action and have similar entries.

I'll be more careful, and pick the cleanest of the entries when faced with multiple setups.

At least this mornings movement of the EUR seems to be in the right direction. I think I'll keep tight stops though.
  • #8,986
  • Jun 4, 2010 7:23am Jun 4, 2010 7:23am
Quoting 4xAddict
Btw, did you end up entering your AUDNZD sell trade that you had pending after the entry signal daily pin bar was broken to the upside?

Interested in your thoughts as I am still trying to fine tune my understanding of this method.

Cheers and down with the Euro, 4x.
I removed the order once the PIN was broken to the upside. I am still watching this pair.

It did form a 1 2 3 bottom, but the pattern is a bit sloppy so I don't have any pending orders at this time.

I am really trying to find the textbook setups right now. I feel like I am hunting for entries a little too much and maybe over trading. So I am really looking for solid justification for each order.
  • #8,987
  • Jun 4, 2010 7:42am Jun 4, 2010 7:42am
Wow... that was a real stinker of a report today...

If you ignore census workers, the US economy added 41k jobs... (expectations were for 180k). Funny, most job reports where the economy adds over 431k jobs is a "good" report, but not this one...
  • #8,988
  • Jun 4, 2010 8:01am Jun 4, 2010 8:01am
Quoting 4xAddict
Nice call
Thanks dude.

If you want to see something funny/weird, I was able to pull up some ancient history on this pair (i.e. very looooooong term history on this pair) and this thing if it breaks could have a very long run ahead of it. Check out this chart...

USD/HUF from 1993 - 2002 (monthly candlesticks)...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-06-04_HUF_90s.png Size: 38 KB


Just some historical perspective...I'm not calling for 200-handles on this pair, but then again if they try to devalue their currency to pay off debt, it could get kind of ugly.
  • #8,989
  • Jun 4, 2010 11:05am Jun 4, 2010 11:05am
Well......any questions? It seems the trend is still your friend.

I am thinking Manhattan is starting to see the rest of the world for once.
  • #8,990
  • Jun 4, 2010 1:48pm Jun 4, 2010 1:48pm
600 pages and going strong. Nice thread Chris. I'm on holiday next week and almost flat. Eurnzd just looks too nice not to keep one eye on.

I hope everyone here has a good week and I'll see you when I get back.

Oh, I have a question... Just exactly why is the spread so high on eurnzd?
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,991
  • Jun 4, 2010 3:11pm Jun 4, 2010 3:11pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
600 pages and going strong. Nice thread Chris. I'm on holiday next week and almost flat. Eurnzd just looks too nice not to keep one eye on.

I hope everyone here has a good week and I'll see you when I get back.

Oh, I have a question... Just exactly why is the spread so high on eurnzd?

I have 4 pips most of the time. But to be honest - it's just not a highly traded pair. If memory serves me well, I think the spread at most brokers is something like - 7?
  • #8,992
  • Jun 4, 2010 3:31pm Jun 4, 2010 3:31pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
600 pages and going strong. Nice thread Chris. I'm on holiday next week and almost flat. Eurnzd just looks too nice not to keep one eye on.

I hope everyone here has a good week and I'll see you when I get back.

Oh, I have a question... Just exactly why is the spread so high on eurnzd?
Depends on when the main NZD funding markets are open too. The spread drops if you trade during the Australian/Asian session as there is more liquidity on NZD pairs.

Another example is the USDHUF that InfinitySL mentioned yesterday. Spread during US session yesterday was a generous 100 pips however today in Europe it was 50.

However that is not the only reason. It is also due to the lower value of the NZD as the funding currency meaning that brokers need to make more pips in NZD to make the same margins as they would on the GBP or EUR as the $ pip value is much lower on NZD denominated crosses.

Enjoy your holidays!
  • #8,993
  • Jun 4, 2010 3:37pm Jun 4, 2010 3:37pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Depends on when the main NZD funding markets are open too. The spread drops if you trade during the Australian/Asian session as there is more liquidity on NZD pairs.

Another example is the USDHUF that InfinitySL mentioned yesterday. Spread during US session yesterday was a generous 100 pips however today in Europe it was 50.

However that is not the only reason. It is also due to the lower value of the NZD as the funding currency meaning that brokers need to make more pips in NZD to make the same margins as they would on the GBP or EUR as the...
4XA and Chris, thanks, nice one, see you soon.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,994
  • Jun 4, 2010 3:55pm Jun 4, 2010 3:55pm
After the market started to move down this morning, I decided to close one of the EUR/XXX shorts.

I closed my EURJPY trade at +100, because it was the only trade that had not broken through an important support level.

I'm still short EURUSD, AUDCAD, and EURGBP. We'll have to see where the market takes us next week.

Have a good weekend everyone.
  • #8,995
  • Jun 4, 2010 5:31pm Jun 4, 2010 5:31pm
Quoting jharvey407
After the market started to move down this morning, I decided to close one of the EUR/XXX shorts.

I closed my EURJPY trade at +100, because it was the only trade that had not broken through an important support level.

I'm still short EURUSD, AUDCAD, and EURGBP. We'll have to see where the market takes us next week.

Have a good weekend everyone.

I like that you did this. It reduces your risk a bit, plus it allows you to be in the short EUR trade, and it makes sense that you cut short the trade that still has some struggles. Good job.
  • #8,996
  • Jun 4, 2010 5:32pm Jun 4, 2010 5:32pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Depends on when the main NZD funding markets are open too. The spread drops if you trade during the Australian/Asian session as there is more liquidity on NZD pairs.

Another example is the USDHUF that InfinitySL mentioned yesterday. Spread during US session yesterday was a generous 100 pips however today in Europe it was 50.

However that is not the only reason. It is also due to the lower value of the NZD as the funding currency meaning that brokers need to make more pips in NZD to make the same margins as they would on the GBP or EUR as the...
This explanation makes my brain hurt. It must be correct then. lol
  • #8,997
  • Jun 4, 2010 10:34pm Jun 4, 2010 10:34pm
Liked this stock set up, thought I would share it with you guys, as it's a good example of having several signals at once.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wlp.png Size: 94 KB
  • #8,998
  • Jun 5, 2010 5:17am Jun 5, 2010 5:17am
low
we have a gartley on usdchf daily . maybe u are interested ! take a look at EU 4 H CHART too .
samer
  • #8,999
  • Jun 5, 2010 1:23pm Jun 5, 2010 1:23pm
Quoting samer960
low
we have a gartley on usdchf daily . maybe u are interested ! take a look at EU 4 H CHART too .
samer

Samer...

After a bit of looking I found the one on the eu, though I worry I was curve-fitting the fibs to my expectation....but couldn't find anything on the usdchf.

Do you get these from someone else or use one of those fancy indicators?

I did a quick search and tried one and it failed to print a gartley on present price action for both pairs.

If you use an indi, will you PM it to me?

I generally prefer my own method of identification, but I would give it a try.


PS: sorry for hijacking the thread for harmonic pattern Q's.
  • #9,000
  • Jun 5, 2010 2:51pm Jun 5, 2010 2:51pm
Quoting Low

PS: sorry for hijacking the thread for harmonic pattern Q's.
Don't worry about it, as long as it helps someone - it belongs on the thread!
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