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Amyc Trade Journal

  • #441
  • Jun 2, 2010 11:18pm Jun 2, 2010 11:18pm
Quoting amyc
Thanks Shahab.
5 from me too
  • #442
  • Jun 2, 2010 11:52pm Jun 2, 2010 11:52pm
Here is an example of how range bars can simplify trading. This chart shows 30 pip range bars on the euro for the last 8 hours.

The move up today was already known in advance since there was a daily open above the dp. This chart gave 2 possible entries on the 30 pip lows at 1.2210 and 1.2226, then it moved to the daily highs. Since then it has been consolidating in 30 pip ranges. This consolidation in 30 pip ranges is very common in the asian session.

As a note I knew that the move was up for today bc on Thursday and Friday, if there is a daily open above the daily pivot then there is a 90% chance that daily highs will be hit. This only works for these 2 days, Monday- Wednesday are 50-50.
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  • #443
  • Jun 3, 2010 12:59am Jun 3, 2010 12:59am
Thursday maybe the day where the next down move in indicies begins. I have sell orders at 1111 with stops at 1122. target is 1022 during June and 970 as a final target.

Only thing is I'm not sure how this fits in with currencies as I still see au another 100 pips higher and eu potentially another 200-300 pips higher. I would prefer it they all matched up timing wise.
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  • #444
  • Jun 3, 2010 1:22am Jun 3, 2010 1:22am
Quoting amyc
Here is an example of how range bars can simplify trading. This chart shows 30 pip range bars on the euro for the last 8 hours.

The move up today was already known in advance since there was a daily open above the dp. This chart gave 2 possible entries on the 30 pip lows at 1.2210 and 1.2226, then it moved to the daily highs. Since then it has been consolidating in 30 pip ranges. This consolidation in 30 pip ranges is very common in the asian session.

As a note I knew that the move was up for today bc on Thursday and Friday, if there is a...
Good stuff as always Amy
  • #445
  • Jun 3, 2010 1:24am Jun 3, 2010 1:24am
Quoting amyc
Thursday maybe the day where the next down move in indicies begins. I have sell orders at 1111 with stops at 1122. target is 1022 during June and 970 as a final target.

Only thing is I'm not sure how this fits in with currencies as I still see au another 100 pips higher and eu potentially another 200-300 pips higher. I would prefer it they all matched up timing wise.
I am going to change my mind about this post and scrap the shorts at 1111. I want to wait and see where price is at the close of the session. The position of currencies makes me hesitant and also on the chart below which is 28 point range bars I need a top like what was seen at 1175 back in May.
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  • #446
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:16pm Jun 3, 2010 6:16pm
Nice retrace on au last night, still holding my longs and looking for a move higher on Friday. It looks like there is going to be a lot of resistance around 8514 but as long as the S&P still has a higher move to make I will continue to hold.
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  • #447
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:19pm Jun 3, 2010 6:19pm
Same move on the S&P, green highs on Wednesday back to midpoints on Thursday and now on Friday price should move back to the green highs at 1110 again.
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  • #448
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:31pm Jun 3, 2010 6:31pm
Quoting amyc
Nice retrace on au last night, still holding my longs and looking for a move higher on Friday. It looks like there is going to be a lot of resistance around 8514 but as long as the S&P still has a higher move to make I will continue to hold.
Hi amyc,

I was able to set-up the range bar last night the r80-r140-D and have the same chart as yours.

When AU hit the midpoint which is also the weekly PP, is that also a good entry to go long?
  • #449
  • Jun 3, 2010 9:12pm Jun 3, 2010 9:12pm
Quoting epeks
Hi amyc,

I was able to set-up the range bar last night the r80-r140-D and have the same chart as yours.

When AU hit the midpoint which is also the weekly PP, is that also a good entry to go long?
Hi epeks

Everything has to be taken in the overall context of the market, if you are looking for price to move up into weekly highs or monthly highs etc then that was an ideal place to go long. So since I am looking for price to move to weekly highs still this week then it was a good long.
But if you had of got that setup when price was trying to move to the weekly lows then I would have passed on it.
  • #450
  • Jun 3, 2010 10:20pm Jun 3, 2010 10:20pm
Quoting amyc
Hi epeks

Everything has to be taken in the overall context of the market, if you are looking for price to move up into weekly highs or monthly highs etc then that was an ideal place to go long. So since I am looking for price to move to weekly highs still this week then it was a good long.
But if you had of got that setup when price was trying to move to the weekly lows then I would have passed on it.

Thanks, amyc.

Correct me if i'm wronng....

Since price opened higher than the weekly pivot, the price will be trying to test the weekly high. We should be looking only for long opportunities unless there is 4HR close under the weekly pivot?
  • #451
  • Jun 3, 2010 10:40pm Jun 3, 2010 10:40pm
Quoting epeks
Thanks, amyc.

Correct me if i'm wronng....

Since price opened higher than the weekly pivot, the price will be trying to test the weekly high. We should be looking only for long opportunities unless there is 4HR close under the weekly pivot?
I look for a daily close below the weekly pp and then a test and rejection the next day to invalidate the weekly move.

For example this week price closed below the weekly pp on Tuesday so if Wednesday had of moved up into 8363 and was rejected down from there then I would have given up looking for a move up this week. But instead it crossed the weekly pp and then tested it again on Thursday and moved up so this is a bullish move and I think there is still a chance we see 8605 this week.

Another thing I look at is if the previous week has closed on or near its highs then it is common that Monday and Tuesday will either consolidate or move down before the move up to the weekly highs takes place. That is why I wasn't too concerned by the close below the weekly pp on Tuesday.

As to whether you only trade longs, it depends on what timeframe you want to trade, because I am only interested in trading the main swing each week that is what I look for but if you were interested in trading smaller moves and some counter trend moves then you could also take shorts as well.
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  • #452
  • Edited 5:11am Jun 4, 2010 12:45am | Edited 5:11am
Here is a second scenario which may play out for AU.

Highs at 8539 and start of the downtrend into 7995 from here.

Looking at the S&P I think there is a good chance we see a top on it on Friday at 1112. If price touches here and closes the week below then that will start the down move next week. (if price closes above here then it's going higher next week)

If that plays out then au won't get to 86 because that would put it above the green highs at 8539 which means it would have to move up further next week but its not going to do that if indicies are moving down.

So I am going to tp on au longs at 8539 if price gets there. I will also start to build a short position from here for the next move down.

If price touches 8539 and closes the week below that is a high probability top, if it breaks then next week will move up further, and if it doesn't move up that far then it should move higher next week unless it is below the weekly pp on Monday.

I wish we weren't nearing a top on NFP Friday!
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  • #453
  • Jun 4, 2010 3:15am Jun 4, 2010 3:15am
Quoting amyc

I wish we weren't nearing a top on NFP Friday!
I know exactly how you feel. ugggg. Good luck though and great analysis
  • #454
  • Jun 4, 2010 5:10am Jun 4, 2010 5:10am
Quoting Saxon
I know exactly how you feel. ugggg. Good luck though and great analysis
Thanks, good luck to you as well.
  • #455
  • Jun 5, 2010 1:42am Jun 5, 2010 1:42am
AU never made the highs last week, never mind, I cashed my longs at 8400 for +100. I got back in short on the break of support at 8360. Still holding and will continue to hold for 7995.
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  • #456
  • Jun 5, 2010 1:50am Jun 5, 2010 1:50am
S&P missed my target of 1112 but instead choose 1107 to fall from. I chased price with a couple of shorts which i am still holding but I want more before it falls to 1022. I am hoping that the 28 point low will push price back towards the weekly pp early next week. I suspect 1022 will have been reached by the end of the week.
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  • #457
  • Jun 5, 2010 2:06am Jun 5, 2010 2:06am
Dollar index has reached yearly highs at 88.49 but I don't see a major reversal just yet, that is more likely in July off the yellow Q3 highs currently sitting at 89.76. The reason for that is the breakout in Q2 highs at 83.74, there is a corresponding breakout in EU in the Q2 lows therefore EU should move down in to Q3 lows around the 1.16 area.

Another reason i see a reversal at this point is that it will have done 3 quarters down by then and statistically that is all a market will do in one direction before doing 1 quarter in reverse.

Based on that I am currently looking at the 1.16 area being a support for eu in July and then moving back up for 3 months towards the 1.25 area. After that it can continue down for another 3 quarters, probably below parity.
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  • #458
  • Jun 5, 2010 2:07am Jun 5, 2010 2:07am
EU this week I am looking for a 140 pip reversal before it probably moves down and makes new lows. Target 1.1891 but ti will probably go lower.
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  • #459
  • Jun 5, 2010 2:11am Jun 5, 2010 2:11am
Pound shorts are coming along nicely, below chart is monthly, I am holding for 1.38 which is yearly lows before looking for possible 1 quarter reversal same as eu.
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  • #460
  • Jun 5, 2010 3:13am Jun 5, 2010 3:13am
Would you still enter GU short on monday morning or have any better entry price for it?
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