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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,801
  • Edited 5:51am Jun 2, 2010 5:39am | Edited 5:51am
Quoting auxesis
When trading, the only direction you can't go.
Now that may be true, but how many have not learnt that lesson? Many use lagging indicators that trade from that direction.

Since we are talking about learning, the correct point needs to be in this direction. fti keeps dodging the point in his direction. That prospective student is funny.
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  • #15,802
  • Jun 2, 2010 6:22am Jun 2, 2010 6:22am
Reflecting back over May I made +5.4% for the month. I know this may not be much compared with those doing demos and what our friends normally achieved here but it is more than enough to live comfortably from my live account.

To be honest, large rescues and large attacks are stressful for me. “Done that. Been there”. Now I try to keep things simple. For the 3Ks if the EUR and GBP are going one way and the JPY is going in the opposite direction then that indicates a strong trend for me. During May I only noticed this once and I hit my trades “like there is no tomorrow” to quote Fti and I only traded like this for a very short time.

During May I felt the trend was down for the EUR/USD. All through May I only rescued and attacked by going short. I find that rescues and attacks are much more enjoyable if going with the trend.

Also, with the wild movements during the month my trade sizes were very very small.

I know that Fti suggested not going over -10% on any one battle but I now look to pull the plug at around -1% My biggest drawdown was -0.8% for one day and my Av was +0.28% per day for May.

I do not know if any of this is any help to the new traders here but for me it is all about trading in my comfort zone.

Anyway, all the best for the new trading month. Ray
  • #15,803
  • Jun 2, 2010 6:39am Jun 2, 2010 6:39am
Quoting jest1081
anyone remember this?
impulse? complete EF and restart again...

i keep wondering why some who practise keep running trades against the trend when they have identified that some impulse are invalid.

when are we 'done for the day'?
Thanks for the reminder, jest1081.

I must confess I have a problem with implementing what you showed. We know that whatever type of analysis we do on the chart we are not going to be right every time. I seem to remember only the times when I'm wrong so that I don't repeat my previous mistakes and a strange thing comes out of that approach. For example, I enter my scout at B and the market shows me ABCDE or ABCDEF scenario and I get out without trying to rescue(I accept I was wrong) and then PA returns in the desired direction.As a result, I've missed a really nice trade.

Next time I enter a scout at B and I get ABCDE continuation and I say to myself " Well last time I missed a really nice trade by getting out early, now I'll stick to this position and I'll even try to rescue it". After that I end up trading against the flow and snowballing my ass to a 10% loss. Sometimes PA reverses 20-30pips after I pulled the plug and that makes the experience even worse.

So now I remember how I lost 10% and I get out early my next several trades and miss some rally nice ones.
That's one of the problems I have and would really appreciate some advice to cope with it.

Regards, MyTbo

P.S.
Some time ago I tried to constrain the rescue operations in 50 pisp range and if it weren't for your advices and fti's criticism, it would have taken me more than a week (a week full of stress and exhaustion, but luckily with no damage to the book) to realise that it was not viable idea. So thanks fti, auxesis and others
  • #15,804
  • Jun 2, 2010 7:03am Jun 2, 2010 7:03am
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  • #15,805
  • Jun 2, 2010 7:30am Jun 2, 2010 7:30am
Quoting MyTbo
Thanks for the reminder, jest1081.

I must confess I have a problem with implementing what you showed. We know that whatever type of analysis we do on the chart we are not going to be right every time. I seem to remember only the times when I'm wrong so that I don't repeat my previous mistakes and a strange thing comes out of that approach. For example, I enter my scout at B and the market shows me ABCDE or ABCDEF scenario and I get out without trying to rescue(I accept I was wrong) and then PA returns in the desired direction.As a result, I've...

Been battling this egor myself. Just came to realize that I don't fully grasp
what Fti has shown. But the last days posts have opened my eye's.
Now rereading pages 1-200.

Good trading
  • #15,806
  • Jun 2, 2010 8:16am Jun 2, 2010 8:16am
Quoting fti
note news

Iran's central bank says to sell EUR 45bln from FX reserves to buy USD and Gold - Xinhua citing Iranian media and sources.

every one is bailing out of Euros. Be careful
Hi fti,

When news like this start to appear, it means that the EUR is near it's bottom and will soon reverse.

regards,
  • #15,807
  • Jun 2, 2010 8:30am Jun 2, 2010 8:30am
Quoting fti
ya, good luck to you buying.
don't worry, I wont be buying for a while. yesterday during the whole 220 pips up move I was looking for a possibility to go short.. luckily that opportunity presented itself at the top only.

of course it is hard to sit on your hands when there is a strong counter trend move.
  • #15,808
  • Jun 2, 2010 8:45am Jun 2, 2010 8:45am
Happy trading day to everyone. Been a quiet day for me so far, with only two trades, one on the $/CAD, and one on the GBP/$. Just breaking even so far. I have the CAD and the GBP moving in the same direction now, which is wierd. Let's see how the rest of the NY trading session develops. Hope you are all trading well.
  • #15,809
  • Jun 2, 2010 10:06am Jun 2, 2010 10:06am
Quoting fti
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NU0wXxDEenk
  • #15,810
  • Jun 2, 2010 10:09am Jun 2, 2010 10:09am
Quoting jest1081
three kingdom is also a part of the dow theory. averages confirms averages, 3k are currencies in relation. the whole process for this method is built upon that theory. study the theory and trade the flow. thats all there is to it.



lessons in the trade buddy. cheers! school hols are here for the kids. its gonna get messy! lol

oh! the bogey is back. lol
hi jest 1081

you mean is lessons is in the lost trade ,,, and if one ever have deep lost trade one have more/ much lessons

is that right ??

thx
regard
sumakianlee
  • #15,811
  • Jun 2, 2010 10:32am Jun 2, 2010 10:32am
OK, been trading the $/CAD all morning now and am about to move to the sidelines. Several nice moves south after pull backs. Been watching the GBP, too, but it makes me nervous as it moves with the CAD. Euro seems comfortable right where it is but it may decide to jump soon. Take care my friends and trade well!
  • #15,812
  • Edited 11:27am Jun 2, 2010 10:58am | Edited 11:27am
ok la, so rigid people can never learn to have no opinion on news events. except to follow the now. I made money on the selling and now riding long.Also took profits on long both in cable and euro. Now squared for ny lunch

You people will NEVER cut it.

I conclude my findings for Capt. It is truely easier to train monkeys.
Maybe without me around , some people will stay true. Those who won't will never. I better stop wasting my time.
Have seen enough of you fall.

GOODBYE.
  • #15,813
  • Edited 11:33am Jun 2, 2010 11:21am | Edited 11:33am
There is more than 50thread members as i know... Fti, we are here! Asking, learning, working...

My suggestion: Everybody who have less than 2vouch, re-read first 200pages until sunday. Who join?
1.Me
  • #15,814
  • Edited 11:43am Jun 2, 2010 11:33am | Edited 11:43am
Quoting Fana
There is more than 50thread members as i know... Fti, we are here! Asking, learning, working...
Fana, its already all given.
I have seen people find their way and lose it later as i had seen many of my dealers.

So i am around , in fact share some music and trying to guide hold to the training. But its all counter-productive.So i am sorry. Like one of my early mentor always shouts out.
"Thats what they are good for,......."

so many of you have achieved what my good friend calls, " intelligent fools" status. There are fools, the worst are the intelligent fools.

Among the dealers i trained, the hardest to train were those with masters or phds and those who were too intelligent for their own good. They always distract themselves from their own goals. ( read scorpion and turtle story). Humility is not easy to learn, let along master.

GoodLuck.
  • #15,815
  • Jun 2, 2010 11:47am Jun 2, 2010 11:47am
Harsh words FTI.

I believe that failure of a student, as long as the student is willing, is usually the fault of the teacher. Alternatively, maybe the forum mode of teaching could be blamed.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #15,816
  • Jun 2, 2010 11:56am Jun 2, 2010 11:56am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Harsh words FTI.

I believe that failure of a student, as long as the student is willing, is usually the fault of the teacher. Alternatively, maybe the forum mode of teaching could be blamed.
Here's even harsher.

For someone who never even did get off the taxiway. You have much ego to critique. Watch you ego, becareful that it does not write checks that you cannot honour.

see you in the markets, and do bring along much money.

By the way read AOW, i have right to take your head. The instructions were clear. Anyway i am not your teacher, i came as a friend to save you from your own folly.
  • #15,817
  • Jun 2, 2010 12:07pm Jun 2, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting fti
ok la, so rigid people can never learn to have no opinion on news events. except to follow the now. I made money on the selling and now riding long.Also took profits on long both in cable and euro. Now squared for ny lunch

You people will NEVER cut it.

I conclude my findings for Capt. It is truely easier to train monkeys.
Maybe without me around , some people will stay true. Those who won't will never. I better stop wasting my time.
Have seen enough of you fall.

GOODBYE.
  • #15,818
  • Jun 2, 2010 12:14pm Jun 2, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting fti
Here's even harsher.

For someone who never even did get off the taxiway. You have much ego to critique. Watch you ego, becareful that it does not write checks that you cannot honour.

see you in the markets, and do bring along much money.

By the way read AOW, i have right to take your head. The instructions were clear. Anyway i am not your teacher, i came as a friend to save you from your own folly.
I have notes of everything you have said in this thread, at some point when I have the time, I will try to cut out the nonsense and reduce it to steps and philosophies for profitable trading. Maybe it will prove useful, and maybe not, but I for one have found everything you have said hard to follow as it is presented. You don't and can't know how much effort I have put in to understanding this thread in the past.

AOW is on my book list which can be found on my profile.

Understand that I have no opinion on you, I don't believe or disbelieve your claims and I don't believe or disbelieve that your way of trading is viable... the only way of knowing is reducing it to rules and then trading by them.

Regards, Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #15,819
  • Edited 12:31pm Jun 2, 2010 12:20pm | Edited 12:31pm
Quoting Baifu
hey, baifu

Ai ya not so serious la.
be the baifu you are.

What i forgot to say is that some of you people here are already on the ball.

Its only a matter of more practise. Remember to hold to basics and reinforce your mindset often.

You know you are on the right track, just watch your bottom line. Its your only gauge, (indicator ))

Deviate from the thin red line and you will see your gauge drop. Remember.

Good Fortune
regards
  • #15,820
  • Jun 2, 2010 12:23pm Jun 2, 2010 12:23pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
I have notes of everything you have said in this thread, at some point when I have the time, I will try to cut out the nonsense and reduce it to steps and philosophies for profitable trading. Maybe it will prove useful, and maybe not, but I for one have found everything you have said hard to follow as it is presented. You don't and can't know how much effort I have put in to understanding this thread in the past.

AOW is on my book list which can be found on my profile.

Understand that I have no opinion on you, I don't believe or disbelieve...
what a joke.(flattery gets you everywhere)
Trying learn something you cannot believe in.
Ai ya , go flap your wings and fly la.

I still have my flight manuals with me.
Do you want me send them to you?
You can build a cupboard box ,cockpit.
and after some time you will get your wings just like you will learn to be a profitable trader. At your own rules.
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