DislikedIf you want to ride longer trends, you really need to be analysing based upon the daily/weekly charts. By all means use the hourly to find efficient entry points to maximise your profit but don't confuse swing trading and position trading.Ignored
Thanks the feedback. Yes, I think you are hitting on a key point there. My original intention had been to go long the Aussie for a counter-trend move as in post 30. However, when I saw the lower-lows and lower-highs being made I saw an opportunity to get into what I considered to be the longer-term down trend. Now, when price broke through 0.8350 level today that helped to confirm my view, and is why I decided to continue holding.
But you are quite correct, I need to find the balance in ’the synergy between timescale and the length of time you want to ride a trend’ ( …much better than I could have said it). This is a problem area for me. My objective is to get into the long term trends, at the start, and ride them for as long as possible. A good example is how you’ve managed your current Euro trade. Unfortunately I don’t have the same risk tolerance as yourself, so I look for a move down, and then attempt to get on board on a retrace.
But lets take another step back. Like you say, if one wants to ride the longer term trends, one really need to be analysing based upon the daily/weekly charts. So lets do that, starting with AUDUSD.
The weekly chart shows a large bearish bar (16th May) which breaks the 0.8550 level and previous swing low. The next bar is an inside bar which tests this level from below, and is pushed back. It is for this reason, and on a technical basis, that I think the trend is heading down. Just to touch on fundamentals; China is tightening and it doesn’t look like the RBA has any further plans to increase the interest rate so this supports the change in trend (although one thing I’m not sure of here is that the Aussie is still a high-yielding currency so therefore would this not offer it a level of protection). Another concern I have is that the Aussie is only down because of Risk Aversion, and maybe the change in trend is just temporary. Fundamental spiel over, sorry, know you’re not keen on that, but it does have a consideration in my thinking
Earlier you said ‘The weekly chart got me interested. The daily chart got me in and the daily chart will eventually get me out.’ How do you read the Aussie at this moment in time ? Do you believe there is a long-term trading opportunity here ?
Perhaps it would be useful to do this exercise with a few other pairs as well.
Apologies for the long and probably rambled post, but it helps to talk it through, and also allows you an insight into any flaws in my thinking.
Your effort and patience is much appreciated by all those here,
Astellas