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Silent Service Method

  • #8,921
  • Jun 1, 2010 7:03am Jun 1, 2010 7:03am
Quoting clockwork71
My thoughts on the Swissy.....

The weekly pinbar was broken this morning on a pretty serious spike. I'm going to be looking for a place to enter long, now. Pretty crazy that a weekly pinbar that NICE broke in a matter of about 4 hours...

Tells you something.
  • #8,922
  • Jun 1, 2010 7:22am Jun 1, 2010 7:22am
Quoting clockwork71
Interesting. Those of you in the group know why I am so interested in this article. Could be a sign of events to come....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...AlH49CDo&pos=3
It's only a matter of time mate

I can hear the bubble stretching from here in London. One thing for sure is that it will not look like a capitalist market collapse given the strong control the Chinese government has over things however there is no doubt people are going to get burned here. May come in the shape of capital outflow controls or swift law changes regarding foreign real estate holdings. Regardless it will be very interesting and probably sooner than most expect.

You can guarantee one thing though, the yuan will not appreciate substantially any time soon with this is the wings.
  • #8,923
  • Jun 1, 2010 7:46am Jun 1, 2010 7:46am
Quoting TraderDavo
The weekly pinbar was broken this morning on a pretty serious spike. I'm going to be looking for a place to enter long, now. Pretty crazy that a weekly pinbar that NICE broke in a matter of about 4 hours...

Tells you something.
Take another look
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,924
  • Jun 1, 2010 8:45am Jun 1, 2010 8:45am
Quoting 4xAddict
It's only a matter of time mate

I can hear the bubble stretching from here in London. One thing for sure is that it will not look like a capitalist market collapse given the strong control the Chinese government has over things however there is no doubt people are going to get burned here. May come in the shape of capital outflow controls or swift law changes regarding foreign real estate holdings. Regardless it will be very interesting and probably sooner than most expect.

You can guarantee one thing though, the yuan will not appreciate substantially...
No doubt. The Yuan won't be floating anytime soon at all. In fact, I am one of those that doubts it ever will.....
  • #8,925
  • Jun 1, 2010 8:47am Jun 1, 2010 8:47am
Quoting o990l6mh
My thoughts go to the people and the nature affected by this. I hope they manage to stop it somehow.

Does seem more and more like the relief wells are the only thing to do, the pressure is apparently just to powerful.

It really is too bad. Anyone that has been down there knows how special the Gulf really is. And then there is the New Orleans area. Magnificent. One of the true cultural gems of N. America.
  • #8,926
  • Jun 1, 2010 8:48am Jun 1, 2010 8:48am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Ahem maestro, I posted this nearly a week ago

Ok, I got in far too early but I'm still there.
I thought someone else was watching this. To be honest, I have been so focused on the Euro.....I didn't want to be in both at the time. (Since they tend to go directly opposite.)

Chris
  • #8,927
  • Jun 1, 2010 8:52am Jun 1, 2010 8:52am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Take another look

Its still a failure of a weekly pinbar. Sure, right now there is a retrace that makes it look like another weekly pin, but its Monday. The failure is FAR more important than what a weekly bar looks like 5 days before it is going to close.

The point is that, when liquidity came back into the market (the boys in london just started trading this morning after taking monday off, too), there was a break.

IMO, I guess...
  • #8,928
  • Jun 1, 2010 10:00am Jun 1, 2010 10:00am
Quoting TraderDavo
Its still a failure of a weekly pinbar. Sure, right now there is a retrace that makes it look like another weekly pin, but its Monday. The failure is FAR more important than what a weekly bar looks like 5 days before it is going to close.

The point is that, when liquidity came back into the market (the boys in london just started trading this morning after taking monday off, too), there was a break.

IMO, I guess...
Well it's tuesday in my world but I take your point
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,929
  • Jun 1, 2010 10:02am Jun 1, 2010 10:02am
Eurchf looks like it's going down but how long is it until the Swiss Central Bank have their say on things?
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,930
  • Jun 1, 2010 12:58pm Jun 1, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Well it's tuesday in my world but I take your point
damn long weekend has me upside down...
  • #8,931
  • Jun 1, 2010 1:08pm Jun 1, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting TraderDavo
damn long weekend has me upside down...
Lol. I'm still thinking this could be a short but as Chris said EurUsd still looks bearish so it's difficult to know which way to go. Time will tell I suppose.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,932
  • Jun 1, 2010 1:41pm Jun 1, 2010 1:41pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Eurchf looks like it's going down but how long is it until the Swiss Central Bank have their say on things?
I have played this twice now on a breach of 1.4020 placing a buy order there with a SL at 1.3900 targeting 1.4200. Sure it is a risk because you never know which level the SNB will try to protect but I only use 0.5% as a position size and it has given +200 pips on both occasions.
  • #8,933
  • Jun 1, 2010 1:52pm Jun 1, 2010 1:52pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Lol. I'm still thinking this could be a short but as Chris said EurUsd still looks bearish so it's difficult to know which way to go. Time will tell I suppose.
Hi Arfer/CW,

Current daily bar looks like it will finish in line with a continuation of the current weekly trend line from the basic understanding of your methods I have picked up.

Is it right that looking to go long here against the existing daily and weekly trend is the higher risk play? That said now that the present weekly bar has shot up above the previous candle are those of you looking to enter this trade placing resting buy and sell orders either side of the price action at the moment or is the completion of this week's candle your real guide for trade direction?

Thanks.
  • #8,934
  • Jun 1, 2010 1:59pm Jun 1, 2010 1:59pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi Arfer/CW,

Current daily bar looks like it will finish in line with a continuation of the current weekly trend line from the basic understanding of your methods I have picked up.

Is it right that looking to go long here against the existing daily and weekly trend is the higher risk play? That said now that the present weekly bar has shot up above the previous candle are those of you looking to enter this trade placing resting buy and sell orders either side of the price action at the moment or is the completion of this week's candle your real...
On which pair?
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,935
  • Jun 1, 2010 2:15pm Jun 1, 2010 2:15pm
Quoting clockwork71
My thoughts on the Swissy.....
Very clean analysis as usual. And our job, as usual, is to wait for price to show its hand.

  • #8,936
  • Jun 1, 2010 2:43pm Jun 1, 2010 2:43pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
On which pair?
Sorry mate USDCHF.
  • #8,937
  • Jun 1, 2010 2:51pm Jun 1, 2010 2:51pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Sorry mate USDCHF.
Well as Chris said the worry about getting involved in this pair at the moment is that shorting it here goes against the eurusd downtrend as these two pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Maybe eurusd is about to bounce up a bit towards the downtrend line it has been away from for a while? This would allow usdchf a pullback to 1.13 or even 1.09.

Safest way is to sit on your hands until it tells you which way it wants to go. With eurusd being in such a strong downtrend I'm thinking a pulback to one of those levels could be a good place to buy usdchf again and see if it breaks that monthly trendline on the way up, that would be a seriously good trade.

I'm short eurgbp from today (I put a pending order under the previous lows) and I'm still watching euraud, nzd and cad.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,938
  • Edited 3:45pm Jun 1, 2010 3:31pm | Edited 3:45pm
Quoting clockwork71
My thoughts on the Swissy.....
I see a big PIN forming on the daily. I am about 4 hours from the close, but I am thinking about placing a short order below the daily pin, looking for the 1.0900 area.

I am also looking to maybe go long on a break above the PIN if I get a clear signal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf d.jpg Size: 134 KB
  • #8,939
  • Jun 1, 2010 3:53pm Jun 1, 2010 3:53pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Well as Chris said the worry about getting involved in this pair at the moment is that shorting it here goes against the eurusd downtrend as these two pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Maybe eurusd is about to bounce up a bit towards the downtrend line it has been away from for a while? This would allow usdchf a pullback to 1.13 or even 1.09.

Safest way is to sit on your hands until it tells you which way it wants to go. With eurusd being in such a strong downtrend I'm thinking a pulback to one of those levels could be a good place...
I have been short E.G since around the 0.8750 area and AUDCAD since 0.9200 area but to be honest the market really is in a state at the moment. I wonder whether the E/G is actually making its next move atm or if this is more to do with the Prudential (UK) acquisition of AIG's asian assets falling through and them having to cover their transaction hedge. For the EURUSD to run from 1.2120 area back to 1.2320 area and then close below 1.23 in a day implies someone somewhere is doing some quite heavy buying against the trend given all markets were back online today and it managed to move up 2 big figures against this heavy trend. The fact this also happened to coincide with the US market open today and then disappear once the EUR market closed indicates someone doesn't want to telegraph who is buying either. I am starting to wonder whether things are just looking to range into summer and leave the headaches till September.

Here's one for you, do you guys take the summer off and exit positions or just leave in what you have open and just come back to the screen again in late August.
  • #8,940
  • Jun 1, 2010 4:15pm Jun 1, 2010 4:15pm
Quoting 4xAddict
I am starting to wonder whether things are just looking to range into summer and leave the headaches till September.

Here's one for you, do you guys take the summer off and exit positions or just leave in what you have open and just come back to the screen again in late August.
I wonder about the summer too. This will only be the second summer I've seen, and last summer was when I first found this thread, and really turned my trading around. I suspect a little sideways action will unfold myself, but have no problem trading it. One of my biggest mistakes has been to presume a continuation of a trend, when the market instead just bounces around between levels. So I'm keeping an eye out for continued trending, but consolidation is just fine too.

It makes me wonder what my perception will be 5 years from now.
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