Technical Analysis Fallacy

oh. right. got it. don't mind me then *doot doot doot*

Hi textor mate,

Do you mean that generous, kind hearted person who shared all his knowledge in forex trading... for free?

i saw it once before but not so sure where was it... but for sure it's not on this thread. I'm sorry but i think you're on the wrong forum
my apology, cannot help you much.

regards,
dongsky

Hi Textor,

Good question.

I don't believe that the spirals can be seen in charts, whatever your doctor prescribes. I believe the spiral is in the skew and thus MM. To keep the attack skew away from the Break Even range and the Rescue skew inside the Break Even range, pretty simple. Meaning, you don't want to end the day flat because of your last, biggest, attack level and you want to end the day flat on your last rescue.. that is why the rescue skew often is more aggressive than the attack. I believe it is important to gouge the move (waves, legs, call them what you want) to make sure you can get out of a losing battle or even better- put yourself beyond defeat.

The structure has to be simple and sound so that you don't have to fear the result of 100 battles.

The MO has to be simple, you can't draw a butterfly on your charts, enter some new values in your spreadsheets and keep an eye on 20 charts.. the decision process is in the NOW and in a split second.

The only thing you can manage is RISK. Always know where you are and where it can take you. All the scorpions, egos and personality disorders concentrate here.. your size and average price.

Despite nubcake's constant nagging, I like the AOW analogy.

hi piccolo,

spot on mate at last somebody make sense again on this thread.

regards,
dongsky

fti's words, not mine. The observation in question was that the thread is way off its purpose.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15524

Everyone's got the right to choose a tree.

Regards

Some thoughts to add to Piccolo’s good sense post:

Buy low sell high as market breathes in and out in constant gyration (principle of vibration). Let your spy-scout-riders-raiders tell you what’s high or low, among other things. Use position sizing to keep average price close to market if it is on the wrong side and far from market if it is on the right side while you trade your bias. Watch exposure, collect foreign capital.

AOW II.9 Bring war material with you from home, but forage on the ememy.
II.15 Hence a wise general makes a point of foraging on the enemy. One cartload of the enemy's provisions is equivalent to twenty of one's own, and likewise a single picul of his provender is equivalent to twenty from one's own store.

Do some math with phi spiral position sizing_price movements to become familiar with their combined effect on average price, not suggesting scaling in and out with rigid price steps, this should be done by dancing.

Lastly remember fti came from 26 years experience as a pro, he pulses the market and reads market form factoring in volitility and time range. Strategizing and extemporaneous response take practice, remember the moth story.

Rgs,
Baifu

ai ya, did you know, the best bodyguards are invisible. The one you see in suit , with dark glasses and wires growing out of his ears and clutching his piece. Well, he's not the bodyguard, Thats the one suppose to take the bullets.

Why do we need to make calculations on how long the trend might last? If we are going to observe action to determine swing points then we can do that without calculations. The trend lasts as long as it does.

Now if we make calculations, the trend might change before our point so we miss the bus. It might overrun so we were expecting something that didn't occur and if rigid, we enter too early. Every now and then (like most predective TA), it hits the target.

If we just observe and feel the market, we don't need to forecast anything. We are there with the market constantly and just move along with it - utilising MM to protect and attack while following the trend for as long as it lasts.

I think the conversation in this thread is moving in all directions because we are attempting to discover "spiral within spiral" and since no-one really has a clue we are just digging all over the place. I would rather just focus on what fti has said and attempt to get the clues there. If we can relate back to what he has said then that is more valuable I think.

LOL -- wow nubcake, welcome to the thread, we need someone who knows so much -- LOL.

Happy trading day everyone! I think the trends are pretty obvious, so good trading to all. Right now I am long the GBP/$ and covering the entry with about 30 pips profit, but also waiting to see what the Bank of Canada does at the top of the hour. A plunge in the CAD usually results in a rise of the GBP/$ (of course, not always but often). Waiting to see if the euro crosses drive further south, or if they square the London move. Good trading to everyone, time for me to focus.

Edit: Protecting 30 pips now and will look for a re-entry if there is a good pull back.
Edit2: Square at 1.4618 with 44 pips.

Yep. I am done with this conversation until fti opens it up himself. I think the "digging all over the place" is not good for the thread and is taking it off course. IMO. Hope you are trading well Zoran and best wishes!

just cannot find the song.

"When the pipe piper blames the rats."
Anyway this one will do. At least is Original sh*t. But he sure won't make the cut. His rhythm and timing is .....

The Pied Piper of Hamlyn

retold by
Jay Freeman

(and much closer to the truth
than you really want to know)

The sewage and garbage lay smelly and thick
In a city so dirty it made the rats sick.

Where the people were filled with a sense of unease
At a notable rise in the rate of disease.

But instead of just facing the problem -- for shame!
They went looking around and found someone to blame.

The burghers of Hamlyn all spoke with high dudgeon,
"What's wrong in our lives can be fixed with a bludgeon!

"It's rats that are bringing us death and disease.
They track in their filth and they give us their fleas!"

Now, the city magician, a man of great craft
Knew enough of the world to see how they were daft.

He stood firmly up in the best of his poses,
And stuck one long finger right under their noses.

"There's something quite wrong with what you want to do.
For the rats aren't the problem. The problem is you!"

"You cannot blame the rats when you serve them all dinner,
Just clean up the streets and they'll leave, or grow thinner."

"Our city is noted for business and wealth,
But there's no sanitation, and no funds for health."

"If you don't rid the city of muck and of swill,
Something awful will happen, I tell you, it will!"

"A great sickness will come, and if it does its worst,
You fine burghers will die, but your kids will go first!"

"You're laid off!" they replied. "You're no longer required.
We don't want to hear it, and therefore, you're fired!"

"We'll kill those black beasts! We will show them our mettle!
Get rid of the rats! Then we'll be in fine fettle!"

They sent out the call for rat-catchers and trappers,
Explosive technicians and miners and sappers,

For bulldogs and scotties and fine black retrievers
And teams to set acres of nets, and their weavers,

For hawks from the heavens, for cats from the farm,
For all they could think of to do the rats harm.

They chased after rats, but the rats went to hiding
In attics and cellars, in chimneys and siding.

They dug and found out that the rats were too clever.
They'd fled to new burrows: They found no rats, never.

The rats came up only at night, just for air.
After weeks of rat-hunting, they all were still there.

The magician, at home, munched at cheese and dry bread,
Fears of what was to come dancing wild in his head,

When from under his stool came a sound like a squeaking,
And there was a rat, standing upright, and speaking.

"We heard what they said, and we want you to know
That we'd leave if we could, but we've no way to go."

"We can't fix the problem, and we didn't make it,
But things are so bad we can no longer take it."

"We can't see our whiskers, the filth is so thick,
And there's nary a rat who desires to be sick."

"If this were a ship we'd dive over the side,
But instead we are stuck in your city, inside."

"We are trapped, killed, and hunted by night and by day.
You have got us surrounded; we can't get away."

"And since you want your job back, you might be a man
Who could learn to work with us. Now, I have a plan."

"It will make you look good. It will help us escape.
And the burghers of Hamlyn won't know it's a jape."

"We rats have been thinking; we've thought it all through.
And -- if you are willing -- then, here's what we'll do..."

Next morning the burghers looked up from their beer
Disbelieving their senses, of what they did hear.

For from somewhere too close came an ear-splitting hoot,
As if someone who shouldn't were playing a flute.

The magician had dressed in his best cap and gown
And he stood in the square in the center of town,

With an old bent recorder he'd bought from a band,
And he put down his music, and held up his hand.

"I beg pardon. You're right. We should do what you ask.
I have dug up some magic to help with the task."

"With my magical flute I will make such a sound
As will conjure the rats to come out of the ground."

"I don't doubt you, old man," the Most High Burgher said,
"For with playing like that you may well raise the dead."

"You must trust me! I beg you! Just give me a day.
I will bring the rats up and then lead them away."

"We will march to the river. It soon will be found
That they've jumped in the water and -- surely -- have drowned."

"Well, a day cannot hurt much, or so it appears,
But first let's put wax up inside of our ears."

"You have wax for your brains!" he said under his breath,
"If you don't clean this mess it will soon be your death."

Then he thought once again of the children in school,
And he spoke up again, "You must heed this old fool!"

"All the rats will be gone by the set of the sun,
But I tell you once more that the task is not done!"

"If you don't clean the city, the filth and the lice
Will extract from your families the ultimate price."

"Go away!" said the burgher, "Get on with the job."
The magician spoke softly, and now with a sob.

"Well, I tried." For the burghers had shut up their door.
"I have tried. They won't listen. I cannot do more."

"Nothing closes so tight as the mind of a man.
Thus I fear hope is lost. Well, I'll save who I can."

So he took up his flute and he wiped off the tip,
Put it into his mouth and then gave it some lip,

To bring forth from the bell such a dissonant sound
That it curdled the milk for a half mile around.

Cats and dogs fled in terror and roosters laid eggs
And the people of Hamlyn made swift with their legs

As they came to see what was the cause of the racket
And if they should send for a nice new strait jacket.

But as into the burrows the music was driven,
It meant to the rats that the signal was given.

Their bags were all packed, they were all in the know,
They were glad to be leaving and ready to go.

They came to the surface and into the street,
They scampered from doorways beneath peoples' feet.

The men who killed rats all came running pell-mell,
But the wizard called "Stop! You must not break the spell!"

The rats fell in line as if in a parade
And all acted like zombies to make the charade.

The rat-catchers were eager to do what he'd bidden:
Their ears hurt, their dogs howled, and the cats had all hidden.

The rat eyes were vacant, as if they weren't thinking,
Except that one baby was almost caught winking.

They strode through the streets as he played his strange song,
The rats lined up in files, twelve abreast, two miles long.

They marched down to the docks and turned left on the quay.
There they jumped in the river... and all swam away.

The story gets sad now, you know how it went.
The old man, for his troubles, was banished and sent

To live off in a cave on the side of a hill.
And for all that I know he is living there still.

A few rats went to England, but most went to France.
The worst of the rats had a happier chance

Than the people who lived in the city, and stayed,
When the bill that the piper predicted was paid.

For the filth brought disease, as the piper had said,
And the children of Hamlyn are gone

-- they're all dead.

Since all is so out of sync, here's the new dance.

LOL -- My wife walked in during the song and now I must explain "dancing with the market". fti, like many new participants here, she refuses to read page 1-200 of the thread to learn about dancing -- LOL.

Focusing on the $/CAD, as the euro pairs square up/retrace the London move. Time to focus.

PS: what are the girls drinking, and when did bell bottom pants make a come back. BTY, I feel compelled to say, "Go Chicago Blackhawks"!

I have been in two additional GBP/$ trades since exiting my first for 30 pips each. I am skipping this last opportunity on the GBP and switching gears here a bit. Trade well.

for those who can, with some grace , huh?

and for you that rode the cable today. Also for those who bought the aussie last week.



regards

Thanks fti, I wish I spoke the language. Hope you are well.

Words are deficient to explain the feel. krup

regards