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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #226,721
  • May 31, 2010 10:13am May 31, 2010 10:13am
I did expect it to turn down but this quickly ... someone must have dumped a whole boatload of yen crosses of one kind or another ... GY, EY dumped over 85 pips , but more shocking is UJ dumping 55 pips in <10 min. (No impact to GU) The usual up-to-the-minute sites aren't really well staffed today, so no news yet...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #226,722
  • May 31, 2010 10:14am May 31, 2010 10:14am
today's high @ 132.92 should be enough for stop... if we go above, support testing is delayed and most chances are for another test of resistance - this time @ 133.20.
let's see how london will close.

Quoting Naseri13
joined you at 132.85, stop at 133.51 and also looking for 100 pips in today's quiet market.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #226,723
  • May 31, 2010 10:24am May 31, 2010 10:24am
look at aussie, another breakout to the downside.
anyway, i don't think the orders were that big as market is supposed to be thin until tokyo starts in a couple of hours.

Quoting Beljevina
I did expect it to turn down but this quickly ... someone must have dumped a whole boatload of yen crosses of one kind or another ... GY, EY dumped over 85 pips , but more shocking is UJ dumping 55 pips in <10 min. (No impact to GU) The usual up-to-the-minute sites aren't really well staffed today, so no news yet...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #226,724
  • May 31, 2010 10:31am May 31, 2010 10:31am
Quoting Scrat
today's high @ 132.92 should be enough for stop... if we go above, support testing is delayed and most chances are for another test of resistance - this time @ 133.20.
let's see how london will close.
thank U scart for your attention http://www.free-slideshow.com/screen...ter-drop-s.jpg
A little beginner trader since 2006
  • #226,725
  • Edited 11:22am May 31, 2010 10:46am | Edited 11:22am
Quoting Beljevina
... GY, EY dumped over 85 pips , but more shocking is UJ dumping 55 pips in <10 min. (No impact to GU) The usual up-to-the-minute sites aren't really well staffed today, so no news yet...
Here's a reporting site update on the dump:

11:09 AM Markets trading erratically as Europe closes The market saw some violent moves as Eurjpy, NZD, EUR and AUD were sold in a violent move. Some market participants taking advantage of holiday liquidity issues triggered stop loss selling in most majors ag the USD.


and

Apparently a few fund managers waited until today to square up their month-end needs. USD/JPY and AUD/USD saw the biggest flows apparently, with USD/JPY falling something like 60 pips to the 90.80 area, I’m told… Moral of the story: Never leave large flows to be dealt on market holidays!

  • #226,726
  • May 31, 2010 11:05am May 31, 2010 11:05am
I am still waiting for 133.16...close above 133.40(50%) and i will go long for 134.70 and maybe 137 (76.4%)

or confirmed break(with pullback) of 132 (38.2%)

below is h4 with ema100 on it
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  • #226,727
  • Edited 11:42am May 31, 2010 11:30am | Edited 11:42am
Yen weakness means sterling/other yen cross rises this week? You'd think, although this isn't really a currency issue, but let's see. I was most keen on a CADJPY long, given the rate rise anticipation, although it's a crapshoot whether they will - I'd probably bail most of the position prior to the announcement.

2010.05.31 00:23: YEN BIGGEST LOSER in Asian trade on a combination of improved risk appetite and a split in the Japanese govt coalition. Japans Social Democratic Party has exited the tri-partite coalition (SDP, DPJ and PNP) after the DPJ's decision to allow the US military base to stay in Okinawa rather than have it move totally from the Island. Although the coalition maintains its majority in parliament, it will become weaker ahead of July's upper house elections. JPY is weakest currency, followed by USD and GBP. Both London and New York markets are closed for Bank Holiday. USDJPY breaks the May 4 trend line, eyeing 92.15, while CADJPY eyes initial resistance at 87.450-50, followed by 88.20-25the 50% retracement of the decline from the 94.38 high to the 92.09 low.

  • #226,728
  • May 31, 2010 1:35pm May 31, 2010 1:35pm
Quoting Beljevina
Here's a reporting site update on the dump:

11:09 AM Markets trading erratically as Europe closes The market saw some violent moves as Eurjpy, NZD, EUR and AUD were sold in a violent move. Some market participants taking advantage of holiday liquidity issues triggered stop loss selling in most majors ag the USD.

and[indent]Apparently a few fund managers waited until today to square up their month-end needs. USD/JPY and AUD/USD saw the biggest flows apparently, with USD/JPY falling something like 60 pips to the 90.80 area, I’m...
Quoting Beljevina
Over on the auslanco GY/GU thread I posted this, when it occurred. P.S. - Not really a reason to start a new thread.
Ok, thanks for the reply and sorry for wrong thread starting error by me.

But was there some sort of inclination that something like the big drops was going to happen ? "taking advantage of holiday liquidity issues triggered stop loss selling in most majors ag the USD" and "a few fund managers waited until today to square up their month-end needs."........

..........But why big sell and not big buy?
  • #226,729
  • May 31, 2010 3:05pm May 31, 2010 3:05pm
Good article if someone is interesting about crisis and forthcoming consequences of bailouts.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blog...n-it-work.aspx

IN THIS ISSUE:

 

  1. US Taxpayers Bailing Out Greece & the Rest of Europe
  2. Quick History of the International Monetary Fund
  3. IMF Prepares for $1 Trillion Bailout of Europe
  4. EU Bailout Approved, But Will It Work?
  5. Will Any of this Money Ever be Paid Back?
  6. The "Cornyn Amendment" - A New Monkey Wrench

  • #226,730
  • May 31, 2010 3:32pm May 31, 2010 3:32pm
Just got home a bit ago from the holiday weekend camping trip... good times. I took a short after a few minutes of looking at the charts. Currently short now from 132.723 with no immediate target in mind yet. I'm really too tired to think much so I'll probably just set a stop and check her in the morning.

Glad to be back!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #226,731
  • May 31, 2010 3:57pm May 31, 2010 3:57pm
Quoting Geppy
Just got home a bit ago from the holiday weekend camping trip... good times. I took a short after a few minutes of looking at the charts. Currently short now from 132.723 with no immediate target in mind yet. I'm really too tired to think much so I'll probably just set a stop and check her in the morning.

Glad to be back!
You didn't miss anything.
Every time you use 'hopium' in a post, God kills a kitten.
  • #226,732
  • May 31, 2010 8:21pm May 31, 2010 8:21pm
Quiet as it is amongst church mice around here ... guess everyone is still in vacation mode!

Although there was $ to be made trading today, I didn't, but am catching up on news, and there's little good. Friday's Spain downgrading's not been reacted to (properly) by anyone, and as traders of fx, equities & others come back for Tuesday, I suspect they'll be barraged by so much bad news that only one direction will be in place for EURUSD & sterling; even Asian trading has GY and yen crosses heading down to the tune of 100 pips so far, with the Tokyo fix and lunch due up shortly, such when Asia's down, London/NY end up going up 90% of the time - I suspect today will be an exception, if nothing else, to shake out any steadfast longs. Am betting the swings will be wild until either ther bear or bulls win out. Here are some relevant articles traders will be confronted with for June 1:

Bundesbank Attacks ECB Bond-Buying Plan - the German wolves & euro mothership speaks out

European banks face huge writedowns - €260B already down the toilet, with €200B needing to be printed. Worthy to note that this is ECB commentary, so when the shit hits the fan, you know it's going to be worse than the prep talk

German Central Bankers Suspect French Intrigue - Germans suspect the French are covering for unloading their bad Greek debt - my oh my, and they want everyone else in Europe to get along ...

Anglo plans to dump €24bn loans in bad bank - They need to cough up another €15B to 'sanitize' their books - all of it from Irish taxpayers.

And, my favourite spaghetti graphic of who owes who what, in case you missed it. Just think: if the Greece debt of $230B got us to where we are today, and Spain is the next country to be 'profiled", where will their $1.1 trillion get things!!!

P.S. - Oh, almost forgot: Top Kill, ... it didn't, and there's talk of no solution until August! I say August!?!! Are they for real?!?!!
  • #226,733
  • May 31, 2010 9:37pm May 31, 2010 9:37pm
Hi buddy, I want to ask if metatrader can draw those lines of your chat that you have been drawing on chart. what chat do you use I like to draw on my chat as you do too? what can I do now?

Quoting fullhouse
i do agree with that... anything between 135 and 139 will we topped...

the recent triangle target is at 136 .. but thats only roughly target predictions..by i stand firm 137.40...
  • #226,734
  • Jun 1, 2010 12:18am Jun 1, 2010 12:18am
Quoting uncletrumpet
Hi buddy, I want to ask if metatrader can draw those lines of your chat that you have been drawing on chart. what chat do you use I like to draw on my chat as you do too? what can I do now?
From what I've seen on his charts, he manually sets up his trend lines and triangles. You could also try this as I have used it in the past:
http://ultimaforex.com/free-forex-in...oving-average/

It draws the triangles for you and suggests a short or buy.

Put it in:
experts/indicators and restart your MT4.

Hope that helps!
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MAProfit.mq4   11 KB | 440 downloads
File Type: ex4 MAProfit.ex4   10 KB | 351 downloads
  • #226,735
  • Jun 1, 2010 12:59am Jun 1, 2010 12:59am
Looks like Tokyo put low in place first and now trying to get to the top. Interesting to see how London will react ( with respect of all those news that you have before)
Quoting Beljevina
Quiet as it is amongst church mice around here ... guess everyone is still in vacation mode!

Although there was $ to be made trading today, I didn't, but am catching up on news, and there's little good. Friday's Spain downgrading's not been reacted to (properly) by anyone, and as traders of fx, equities & others come back for Tuesday, I suspect they'll be barraged by so much bad news that only one direction will be in place for EURUSD & sterling; even Asian trading has GY and yen crosses heading down to the tune of 100 pips so far, with the Tokyo...
  • #226,736
  • Jun 1, 2010 1:24am Jun 1, 2010 1:24am
Quoting Angelique
Looks like Tokyo put low in place first and now trying to get to the top. Interesting to see how London will react ( with respect of all those news that you have before)
Absolutely, anything can happen. I'd been a baby bull last week, but upon reevaluating, we can see 132.9 was recently unbroken resistance & 133.23 was rejected, most on low volume though. GU looks bullish, hence a fight between GU & UJ/GJ. This specific time is no time to enter a trade either; FTSE opens in 45min, and that will have a lot to do with setting fx direction for the 1st trading day. (futures are down) This current 100 pip GY rise is testing demand so I honestly don't know what to expect here for short-term or mid-term, but am leaning more to the downside come FTSE 1st hour.

I really think news/sentiment will be a big driver this week; the CAD rate announce is due, and although the bias is to raise, I can't help but think the last few weeks are a reason for second thoughts, incl. the fact that commodities are falling, plus you've got the example of the AUD's rate hikes. If the hike doesn't come, CADYEN will dump, and probably other yen crosses. Note it's also NFP week, and although 500K census jobs were likely created (I call that the job food stamp program) + the estimated birth/death component, it really depends what type of week it will have been by Friday and how much the markets will be buying the jobs BS - lately, they've been selling into even good news, so there's no slam dunk here IMO.
  • #226,737
  • Jun 1, 2010 1:52am Jun 1, 2010 1:52am
Quoting uncletrumpet
Hi buddy, I want to ask if metatrader can draw those lines of your chat that you have been drawing on chart. what chat do you use I like to draw on my chat as you do too? what can I do now?
Manually draw it from original MT4. Look under "insert" at top,scroll down to "shapes".

Is that what you mean?
  • #226,738
  • Jun 1, 2010 2:10am Jun 1, 2010 2:10am
nice move... FTSE down, GBP/JPY down too.
  • #226,739
  • Jun 1, 2010 2:15am Jun 1, 2010 2:15am
Yipee! Down 75+ pips in EURUSD and falling nicely, GY's given back everything that Asia drove up; once we get past 130.8, 130.4/2. is 1st stop, then looking for 129.5 and 129.05. Am glad everyone got caught up on news.
  • #226,740
  • Jun 1, 2010 2:20am Jun 1, 2010 2:20am
nice
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