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Fibonacci Paradise

  • #661
  • May 28, 2010 12:43pm May 28, 2010 12:43pm
thanks aqain! have a good weekend... ( its memorial day on monday here in the states so markets here will be closed )
  • #662
  • May 28, 2010 5:59pm May 28, 2010 5:59pm
One of the biggest issue I had when starting Skunny fibbing was the concept that... rr was 3:1 and if i mucked a trade up I was 3 trades back... PLUS how did I know when to get in(or out) the thing could waffle all over the place.... now... I dont have all the answers and I cant tell you how you should trade inside of the fib... but here is another tool for the tool box that helps me.,

First chart.. a standard swing fib or 61.8 depending on how you set it up... doesnt matter. now focus on those yell boxes... you can track price expanding and contracting in the fib...now would this have stopped you from getting into this fib and getting a large drawdown? No there are otherways to do that... in this case obviously we needed a retrace...and a massive long reltaively was triggered so sells hit the market.

What this does do for those who are patient and track great opps to get into moves... or just track price or perhaps shorten up a range,.. etc..

Look at the blue fib supporting price. Voila! Now since this is a weekend we have to see what happened at mkt open but if i were going long i would have a pretty clear idea of whats what. Thisn one set up a right beaut and a shame the weekend is here.

TK
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  • #663
  • May 28, 2010 10:17pm May 28, 2010 10:17pm
in the now... perhaps this black fib has closed from pa... someone with a keen edge might be able to verify.. of note a good looking swing fib is open to 125 ish. Hence I follow price but this describes the hiccup in the down move we had and what set my long view.

The black fib is pivotal in long term... we are either crashing into oblivion or rocket to to the moon if it is open. For some reason i favour the moon. mostly because i am a contrary codger. What do you other chaps see?


TK
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  • #664
  • May 29, 2010 1:52am May 29, 2010 1:52am
This chart was made with all styles of fibbing shown so far nothing fancy. A swing fib a no near term sr 61.8 50 and a standard 61.8. I dont normally set charts up like this anymore but you can and once you do...when done right... it snugs together like a puzzle. there are countless other fibs running as well but you dont need all of them i normally use one or at most two.

TK
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  • #665
  • May 29, 2010 4:21am May 29, 2010 4:21am
Quoting ThomKnight
in the now... perhaps this black fib has closed from pa... someone with a keen edge might be able to verify.. of note a good looking swing fib is open to 125 ish. Hence I follow price but this describes the hiccup in the down move we had and what set my long view.

The black fib is pivotal in long term... we are either crashing into oblivion or rocket to to the moon if it is open. For some reason i favour the moon. mostly because i am a contrary codger. What do you other chaps see?


TK
Thom,

I see a confluence ( after the fact ) . At that point , the down swing was halted , and a rally ensued.

Skong
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  • #666
  • May 29, 2010 8:13am May 29, 2010 8:13am
Quoting skong
Thom,

I see a confluence ( after the fact ) . At that point , the down swing was halted , and a rally ensued.

Skong
Righteo! how tricks mate? more to the point i was looking at the black fib into the 160's ...more and more i want to call that closed out since price a came a whisker towards it and fell apart like paper mache in the rain.

TK
  • #667
  • May 30, 2010 12:23pm May 30, 2010 12:23pm
The to the moon or into the loo question has been bothering me so before i set out for Sunday funday with the family... I tore apart GU. There are scads more i did but this is the crux of the matter lads.. that 138.2 turn... corresponds with a gigantic triggered fibs 38.2 FWIW..

Gents the last fib has it all... 138.2 100 on the retrace we are in... a 61.8 to 50 to 38.2 to pierce... I would eat my own cooking if that twasnt bang on. You can layer on 500 fibs to box price in but this does it for me. Small terms longs looking for long term shorts.. waiting for a nice fib to start pointing south w/o having a 5000 pip range. How long will this take... who knows...

and finally the third chart... dbl top bang into a 138.2 off of a large zero... closing out longs and allowing us to resume the short trade we were already tangled up in. Pivot candle... is boxed 50-100 61.8 50 push into a tick 138.2 . I cant trade for anyone... but if i were to think about going for the big short tgt of 1.36 a ( relatively) tight stop at 4611-4514 area would let you know you mucked up awful quick since nothing is sayng it HAS to go to target at the present. Myself? just keeping an eye on the blue fib and current price. I like to chart like this when i get muddled up as to what is going on overall like i was earlier.

TK
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  • #668
  • Edited May 31, 2010 5:24am May 30, 2010 1:20pm | Edited May 31, 2010 5:24am
Thom, I now have a few charts of yours to take a gander at. I had a quick look at GY. From my considerably less experienced swing fib approach I have come up with the follwing 2 fibs.

This is an hourly swing, there are other swing, 61.8 fibs in here but this was as far up the backswing I could go while still finding this triggered and respectable. Looks like we are good for 135.00

Edit: Apologies. Thom has pulled the same fib earlier. I didn't realise.

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This is a weekly. Again there are other fibs in there but this swing style caught my eye, it is not triggered to the downside but there are slightly shorter fibs that are. This one has hit the 61.8 and collapsed impulsively. I think the pound is going to lose a lot more purchasing power.

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I am just an amateur so I could be wrong. Thom, please tell me I am wrong?

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #669
  • May 30, 2010 1:42pm May 30, 2010 1:42pm
Thom, I posted this chart Friday, It's a 4h only because it's easier on the eye. Is this not good for 1.4700?

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MD.
Keep smiling
  • #670
  • May 31, 2010 3:35am May 31, 2010 3:35am
Here's my gy.
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  • #671
  • May 31, 2010 3:54am May 31, 2010 3:54am
And my eu hourly.
The red line is a possible target/turnaround for a smaller fib.
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  • #672
  • May 31, 2010 5:33am May 31, 2010 5:33am
GU..
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  • #673
  • May 31, 2010 5:50am May 31, 2010 5:50am
Quoting Hush
Here's my gy.
Some nice work mate. We all seem to have one thing in common, that weekly swing on GY, your black fib. I like your other fibs as well of course!

I've got some DIY to do, anyone know a good plasterer.....lol.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #674
  • May 31, 2010 5:56am May 31, 2010 5:56am
Thankyou sir , looks like some time off for me , the rain is setting in!
  • #675
  • May 31, 2010 10:39am May 31, 2010 10:39am
question... does respect to the inner fib have to be to the 61.8? can it be to the 38.2 only? thanks in advance!
  • #676
  • May 31, 2010 12:06pm May 31, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting Trader_X
question... does respect to the inner fib have to be to the 61.8? can it be to the 38.2 only? thanks in advance!
No but yes mate.. the 61.8 is the "perfect" one for me... i have been known to trade what i consider lesser fibs. ...but since we can mold the 61.8 to price... i don't see much of a reason to.

TK
  • #677
  • May 31, 2010 12:09pm May 31, 2010 12:09pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Thom, I now have a few charts of yours to take a gander at. I had a quick look at GY. From my considerably less experienced swing fib approach I have come up with the follwing 2 fibs.

This is an hourly swing, there are other swing, 61.8 fibs in here but this was as far up the backswing I could go while still finding this triggered and respectable. Looks like we are good for 135.00

Edit: Apologies. Thom has pulled the same fib earlier. I didn't realise.

Attachment

This is a weekly. Again there are other fibs in there but...

No the Pound is kippered as far as i can see. I just dont know how long it will bounce around before getting smoked like salmon. I am on hols with the fam so I don't have my trading computers with me to chart but yes.

Take a gander at global equities... or more so DJIA and SP and DXY so you can see where the dollar strentgh will becoming from.

TK
  • #678
  • May 31, 2010 12:14pm May 31, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Thom, I posted this chart Friday, It's a 4h only because it's easier on the eye. Is this not good for 1.4700?

Attachment

MD.
Mate, ... i think i looked at that as well.. go to that support pin before hand and see whats what... 4hr data varies but the pattern remains... i didnt say that long was no good i just said my charts said no more long from my 4hr... tool around you have to make sure an earlier fib didnt close out the range for longs.

from my big charts... it just lined up too perfectly if i recall. I am NOT saying your fib is no good at all.

TK
  • #679
  • May 31, 2010 2:07pm May 31, 2010 2:07pm
Hey I'll have a tool around. What you doing posting while you are on holiday? Don't worry about us, enjoy yourself and your family.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #680
  • May 31, 2010 4:47pm May 31, 2010 4:47pm
Right then. I moved my fib back to the previous support pin which I had tried when I pulled the fib. It is pierced on my data by 17 pips at the 138, it is also pierced on the hour with the fib in the same position. Thom I know you said my fib is NOT wrong. Also I am not trying to discredit you, I just think the fib you have drawn is pierced. Here's my copy.

I don't want you to answer me while you are on holiday, I will be annoyed! Go and have a whiskey for me or something.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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MD.
Keep smiling
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